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European Energies Futures Prices

Tue, Oct 15th, 2019
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Tue, Oct 15th, 2019.
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Climbs to a 1-Week High on Forecasts for Below-Normal Temps in the Central U.S.

Nov Nymex natural gas (NGX19) this morning is up +0.32 (+1.40%). Nov nat-gas prices are higher for a second day today and posted a 1-week high on forecasts for widespread cold across the central U.S., which should boost nat-gas demand for heat. Maxar today said it expects below-normal temperatures across most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Oct 25-29. Money managers have record high net short positions for this time of year in seven gas contracts in data going back to 2014, which provides some fuel for a potential short-covering rally. High U.S. nat-gas production continues to be a bearish factor with lower-48 nat-gas production today up +7.4% y/y at 92.621 bcf/d. Strong U.S. nat-gas output has caused U.S. nat-gas inventories to rise sharply in recent months to the current level of +14.5% y/y from -22.3% y/y in March. Another negative for nat-gas prices is the consensus for this Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to climb by 107 bcf, well above the 5-year average for this time of year of 81 bcf. Last Thursday's +98 bcf increase in nat-gas supplies pushed nat-gas inventories up to a 1-3/4 year high of 3,415 bcf the week of Oct 4. Inventories are up +15.5% y/y but are still -0.3% below the 5-year average.
Energy Complex is Mixed as Global Demand Picture Remains Murky

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX19) this morning is down by -0.11 (-0.21%), Dec Brent crude oil (CBZ19) is up +0.02 (+0.03%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX19) is up +0.0071 (+0.44%). The energy complex is mixed this morning as the bearish factor of global demand concern is offset by the bullish factors of a weaker dollar and a rally in stocks. Global demand concerns are weighing on crude prices after the IMF today cut its global 2019 GDP forecast to a 10-year low of 3.0% from a 3.2% estimate in July, the fifth time this year that the IMF has cut its GDP forecast. Crude oil prices were also undercut today by a Bloomberg report that raised doubts about a U.S./China trade deal after the report said China will struggle to buy $50 billion of U.S. farm goods annually unless it removes retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. However, China is not likely to remove its penalty tariffs without reciprocal action by the U.S., which President Trump has so far refused to consider. Crude oil recovered most of its losses and gasoline prices moved higher on a weaker dollar and after the S&P 500 climbed to a 3-week high today, which bolsters economic and energy demand prospects. U.S. stock indexes rallied on better-than-expected Q3 earnings results from JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson. Reduced no-deal Brexit concerns spurred a rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 to a 16-month high today and is also supportive for economic growth and energy demand prospects. Two EU officials today said that UK and European negotiators are closing in on a draft Brexit deal. Crude oil prices found support on strength in credit demand from China, the world's second-biggest crude consumer, which is positive for economic growth and energy demand prospects. China's Sep new yuan loans rose +1.690 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.260 trillion yuan and the biggest increase in 6 months. Also, China's Sep aggregate financing, the broadest form of credit growth, rose +2.270 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.900 trillion yuan. A negative for crude is expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to climb by +3.0 million bbl. Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Oct 4 were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +2.3% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -9.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Oct 4 rose +1.6% w/w to a new record high of 12.6 million bpd.
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