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Corn Dec '18 (ZCZ18)

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Corn Futures Market News and Commentary

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are showing 1 to 2 cent losses at midday on Turnaround Tuesday. Trade estimates for this Friday’s Planting Intentions report are averaging 91.332 million corn acres, with a range of 89.5 to 92.7 million acres. That would be up more than 2 million from last year if realized. Analysts also estimate March 1 corn stocks at 8.335 bbu, a drop of 557 mbu from the same time a year ago. USDA is unlikely to reflect grain lost to flooding in this report, as many bins are still unreachable and the survey was done at the beginning of the month. Individual state Crop Progress reports last night showed most Southern states (TX-38%, LA-50%, and MS-18%) other than AR (3%) are above their respective averages for planting progress, though they are all below last year.May 19 Corn is at $3.77 3/4, down 2 cents,Jul 19 Corn is at $3.87 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,Sep 19 Corn is at $3.93 1/2, down 1 3/4 centsDec 19 Corn is at $4.00 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Corn
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$770/700
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Corn Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
747,849 (+22,545)
691,315 (+32,203)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
433,114 (-1,344)
533,809 (-2,966)
Producers - Long / Short
515,660 (+16,067)
591,460 (+14,566)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
146,566 (-11,296)
14,232 (-137)
Managed Money - Long / Short
196,687 (-3,749)
479,532 (-3,885)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
236,427 (+2,405)
54,277 (+919)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
355-2 +6.05%
on 11/26/18
379-0 -0.59%
on 12/14/18
+9-6 (+2.66%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
342-4 +10.00%
on 09/18/18
379-0 -0.59%
on 12/14/18
+25-0 (+7.11%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
342-4 +10.00%
on 09/18/18
429-4 -12.28%
on 05/24/18
-4-0 (-1.05%)
since 12/14/17

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Soybeans - Just My Opinion

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Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are showing 1 to 2 cent losses at midday on Turnaround Tuesday. Trade estimates for this Friday’s Planting Intentions report are averaging 91.332 million corn acres, with a range of...

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents lower in the front months on Tuesday. Meal futures are down $3.20/ton, with soy oil down 19 points. Ahead of Friday’s USDA Planting Intentions report, traders...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are up 1 to 3 1/2 cents in the CBT contracts on expected sales to Egypt. KC and MPLS are steady to 2 1/2 cents lower. The average trade estimate for all wheat acreage in 2019 is 46.9 million...

Morning Grain Market Research

This will sound like a familiar theme, but it would appear that the grain/soy markets remain in an overall holding pattern as we await government reports and news from the U.S./Chinese trade discussions....

Moving Targets

Believe It or Not!

Daily Technical Spotlight - May Soybeans

Price downtrend still in place, but bulls working to keep price action sideways.

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 381-3
1st Resistance Point 379-1
Last Price 376-6s
1st Support Level 374-3
2nd Support Level 371-7

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52-Week High 429-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 396-2
Fibonacci 50% 386-0
Last Price 376-6s
Fibonacci 38.2% 375-6
52-Week Low 342-4

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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