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Gasoline RBOB Jan '13 (RBF13)

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cmdty Insider - Gasoline RBOB Market Commentary


Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Friday closed unchanged and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$0.46 (+0.69%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +2.04 cents a gallon (+1.31%). A slide in the dollar index Friday to a 1-week low was a positive factor for the energy complex. Also, confidence that OPEC+ will cut production to avert a global oil glut next year led to pre-weekend short covering after this week's rout took crude prices down to a 1-year low. Finally, geopolitical risks are on the rise after the U.S. on Thursday imposed sanctions against 17 Saudi officials over the death of U.S.-based journalist Khashoggi. Dec WTI crude oil prices gave up its gains and settled unchanged Friday after data from Baker Hughes showed active U.S. oil rigs rose by +2 rigs in the week ended Friday to a 3-1/2 year high of 888 rigs. Crude prices are still being undercut by Thursday's weekly EIA report, which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories surged by +10.27 million bbl to an 11-month high and that U.S. crude production in the week of Nov 9 rose +0.9% w/w to a new all-time high of 11.7 million bpd. U.S. crude oil inventories are currently 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, the highest such level since February.Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the reinstatement of full U.S. sanctions on Iran as of Nov 5, although the U.S. gave waivers to 8 countries for up to 1.25 mln bpd of Iranian exports, (2) reduced global oil inventories due to the OPEC+ agreement that began in Jan 2017 to cut production by 1.8 million bpd (1.2 million for OPEC members), and (3) the 50% drop in Venezuelan production seen since 2016. Bearish factors include (1) the OPEC+ move on June 22 to boost production by up to 1 mln bpd to address over-compliance with its production cut agreement, (2) doubts about whether OPEC+ will adopt a large enough production cut agreement for 2019 to offset the expected global oil surplus, and (3) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 11.7 million bpd.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Gasoline Blendstock New York Harbor [RBOB]
Contract Size
42,000 gallons
Tick Size
$0.0001 (0.01 cent) per gallon ($4.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$42,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,620/4,200
First Notice Date
01/03/13
Expiration Date
12/31/12 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Gasoline RBOB Jan '13
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jan Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
184,170 (+10,966)
263,904 (+3,056)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
137,269 (-399)
57,705 (+6,347)
Producers - Long / Short
107,671 (+8,146)
223,645 (-1,160)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
44,478 (-948)
8,238 (+448)
Managed Money - Long / Short
84,865 (+2,840)
32,437 (+7,760)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
52,404 (-3,239)
25,268 (-1,413)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.5893 +8.60%
on 12/06/12
2.8392 -0.96%
on 12/27/12
+0.0817 (+2.99%)
since 11/30/12
3-Month
2.5324 +11.04%
on 11/05/12
2.8392 -0.96%
on 12/27/12
+0.0826 (+3.03%)
since 10/01/12

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Most Recent Stories

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Crude and Gasoline Market Commentary

Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Friday closed unchanged and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$0.46 (+0.69%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +2.04 cents a gallon (+1.31%). A slide in the dollar index...

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Crude and Gasoline Market Commentary

Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) this morning is up +$1.34 (+2.37%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) is up +$1.68 (+2.52%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) is up +3.57 cents a gallon (+2.29%). A slide in the...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.8635
1st Resistance Point 2.8377
Last Price 2.8120s
1st Support Level 2.7756
2nd Support Level 2.7393

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52-Week High 2.9376
Last Price 2.8120s
Fibonacci 61.8% 2.6501
Fibonacci 50% 2.5613
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.4725
52-Week Low 2.1850

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