How Much Insider Trading Does $1.2 Million Buy You These Days?

• The US president's social media site now offers a $100,000 per month subscription for institutions to get faster access to his 'Truth Media; market-making posts. 

• This should fit nicely with his promotion of predictive websites, that coincidentally his ‘family’ maintains close advisory and financial connections to major platforms.

• We've seen this process evolve over the past decade, from ridiculous to predictable, while Federal watchdog agencies look the other way. 

This past weekend, the folks running Barchart’s social media posted a recent piece from CNBC.com, written by CJ Haddad titled/summarized as, “Trump Media’s new paid data service goes live, giving clients faster access to Trump’s posts”^[i]. The author highlighted a few key points about the article: 1) Trump Media and Technology Group launched its new paid data service on August 1 (2026), providing faster access to Truth Social posts from (you know who) and other top accounts on the platform. 2) The new API is designed to give firms “a direct, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving ‘Truths’ (sarcastic emphasis mine). 3) The launch comes after Democratic Senators Adam Schiff and Elizabeth Warren took aim at the new service, urging the SEC to investigate whether the company is violating the law. What does a subscription cost, you ask? Reportedly, a cool $100,000 per month. 

There is a lot to unpack in that opening, starting with the last point. When was the last time the US president was concerned about “violating the law”? That is not on his, or his administration’s checklist. Never has been. Never will be. After all Vlad doesn’t have to follow other people’s laws in Russia, nor does North Korea’s Kim or China’s Xi. So why should the US president? At least this one. When was the last time the US Constitution was consulted about anything? Does anyone recall what branch of the US government has the constitutional power to declare war? To make trade deals? To levy tariffs and taxes? Anyone? Bueller? Speaking of the other branches of the US government – recall the Legislative and Judicial branches once existed – there aren’t any these days. Like any good autocrat^[ii], all decisions – every single one of them – comes from the US president. This isn’t just an issue for the United States, but the world as it has left a vacuum where the leading democracy used to be. It doesn’t take much imagination to understand why the rest of the world holds little sympathy for US agriculture as the latter continues to struggle with the ripple effects of high input costs due to tariffs (e.g. Mexico and Canada), unconstitutional wars (e.g. Venezuela, Iran) and limited global demand due to the ongoing trade war with China. 

Before I get to the heart of the matter, I read a Business Insider article from a year ago listing what the US president was ‘selling’ at the time^[iii]. The author wrote, “…Donald Trump continues to hawk branded merchandise after returning to the White House. Trump has reaped millions from the Bibles, fragrances, shoes, NFTs, and other products that use his name, image, and likeness - $600 million last year (2025), per his most recent financial disclosure.” To this I will add, if you believe a ‘financial disclosure’ from the US president, or anyone in the billionaire club, I’ve still got that mountain-top villa in southcentral Kansas to sell you. 

With all that being said, let’s get into the market implications of all this. How many remember when home and hospitality icon Martha Stewart was sentenced to 5 months in federal prison on counts including “securities fraud, obstruction of justice, and making false statements” associated with her supposed insider trading of information regarding ImClone Systems stock? If you are a bit older, do you recall Hilary Clinton’s success trading cattle futures in the late 1970s? Or the hullabaloo from the Republican side of the political aisle during Ms. Clinton’s later stint as First Lady of the United States, then presidential candidate during the 2016 campaign? What I find interesting is those same voices who were screaming then are quiet now, likely because many of them are subscribers to the president’s new newsletter. 

We’ve seen how this likely plays out the past two sessions in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. As July 2026 came to an end (Friday, July 31), the spot-month contract (CLU26) jumped as much as $3.30 before finishing the day with a gain of $1.10. Why would this be, given the president’s Middle East War was continuing to ramp up at the time? As I talked about with Michelle Steele during a Stocktwits interview back in April, and numerous other times before and since, the headline cycle is becoming easy to predict. This plays into the hands of the wave of predictive market websites that have become a larger player in markets and continues to be promoted by the US president^[iv]. It takes no imagination at all to see how this web of market manipulation has been spun. 

The evolution of the process has been fascinating to watch as well. During the president’s first 4-year term, 2016 to 2020, we watched as he would make wild, bordering on insane, comments to the social media site then known as Twitter (now known provocatively as X). Some of us laughed at the nonsense (covfefe anyone?), but then I picked up on the pattern. These rants, false claims, and outright lies were thrown out to the public with the market(s) reaction noted. As time went on, it took more outlandish posts to get the same reaction, indicating both an evolution of algorithms but the process of measuring the reactions as well. All the while, the US president, friends and family, and members of the then smaller inner circle were reaping the rewards. (Do you remember how much money was made by members of key health and safety committees during the Covid 19 pandemic? So much so new laws were passed, but generally ignored, limiting investment by sitting members of Congress.) 

There are a few key points we have to keep in mind: First, the US president has put my Market Rule #7^[v] on steroids. Next, we have to acknowledge the flow of trade these days: It all starts with not necessarily the Truth Social media posts, much of which is leaked to AI driven predictive market website to be consumed by those who follow such things, then is turned into financial news headlines by AI, which triggers trading algorithms. The new flow chart would move the financial institutions using algorithms to above the predictive market websites, presumably, so they can recoup the roughly $1.2 million a subscription costs. 

Given this, my question is, “Brother, can you spare a dime?” Or 12 million dimes, so I can afford a subscription to keep up with the game. 

^[i] You can read the piece here: (LINK)

^[ii] In the old dictionary on my desk, autocrat is defined: A ruler having absolute or unrestricted power; despot. As I’ve said before, I highly recommend Anne Applebaum’s book “Autocracy, Inc.; The Dictators Who Want To Run The World”. 

^[iii] You can read the piece here: (LINK)

^[iv] According to a Google search: Trump Media and Technology Group (the operator of Truth Social) announced plans to integrate prediction market features, and members of the president’s family maintain close advisory and financial connections to major platforms. 

^[v] Stock markets go up over time.