ConocoPhillips Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

ConocoPhillips (COP), headquartered in Houston, Texas, explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. With a market cap of $145.2 billion,  the company focuses entirely on finding and extracting these resources worldwide, processing them into energy products, and supplying them to refineries and industrial customers across global markets.

Shares of this oil giant have outperformed the broader market over the past year. COP has gained 26.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 21.8%. In 2026, COP stock is up 25.7%, surpassing the SPX’s 11% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, COP’s underperformance is apparent compared to the State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 36.5% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 34.1% returns on a YTD basis outshine COP’s gains over the same time frame.

Geopolitical escalations in the Middle East marked by ongoing U.S. strikes against Iranian defense infrastructure and retaliatory Iraqi attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain are driving expectations of rising WTI crude oil prices. However, COP’s overall performance over the trailing year reflects a broader set of structural dynamics. As a pure-play E&P company without downstream refining to hedge commodity swings, COP faced margin pressures from depressed natural gas realizations, integration costs following its Marathon Oil acquisition, and heavy capital investments in projects like Willow, even as it maintained disciplined shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect COP’s EPS to grow 49.4% to $9.20 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion. 

Among the 26 analysts covering COP stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 15 “Strong Buy” ratings, four “Moderate Buys,” and seven “Holds.”

This configuration is more bullish than two months ago, with 14 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Jul. 21, Charles Minervino from Susquehanna maintained a “Buy” rating on COP, with a price target of $155, implying a potential upside of 30.1% from current levels.

The mean price target of $140.08 represents a 17.6% premium to COP’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $183 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 53.6%.