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Sugar #11 Oct '18 (SBV18)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Recover Early Losses and Close Higher on Robust Demand for Brazil Ethanol

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Tuesday closed up by +0.19 (+1.64%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed up by +3.10 (+0.96%). July NY sugar recovered from a 7-1/2 month low Tuesday and Aug London sugar rebounded from a 9-month low and closed higher on strong ethanol demand in Brazil. Unica reported Tuesday that Brazil Jan-Apr sales of hydrous ethanol surged +35% y/y to 7 billion liters, which may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies. On Monday, researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their forecast for a 2019/20 global sugar deficit to -3.0 MMT from a prior forecast of -1.6 MMT, citing increased ethanol production from Brazil's sugar mills at the expense of sugar production. Unica on May 10 reported that Brazil Center-South 2019/20 sugar production in the second half of April fell -32.7% y/y to 1.035 MMT. Sugar prices had sold-off early Tuesday on the prospects for increased exports from India. The India Sugar Mills Association forecast India's sugar stockpiles may reach a record high of 14.7 MMT by Sep 30, and Meir Commodities India Pvt projects India will boost its 2019/20 sugar exports to 6 MMT from 3 MMT exported this year in order to curb its excessive sugar reserves. Robust global sugar output continues to weigh on sugar prices. Conab projects that Brazil 2019/20 sugar production will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT and that Brazil's sugar mills will increase their percentage of cane crushing to produce sugar to 39.1% from 34.9% in 2018/19. Another bearish factor for sugar is weakness in the Brazilian real which tumbled to a fresh 7-1/2 month low against the dollar Monday, which encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers.

Contract Specifications

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Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
Expiration Date
09/28/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Oct '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Oct Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of May 14, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
528,152 (+21,792)
448,782 (-9,729)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
210,309 (-1,426)
289,159 (+28,661)
Producers - Long / Short
321,887 (+18,237)
392,384 (-15,300)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
168,037 (-2,491)
18,170 (-475)
Managed Money - Long / Short
142,267 (-5,892)
277,799 (+27,527)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
68,042 (+4,466)
11,360 (+1,134)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
9.83 +6.00%
on 09/27/18
11.80 -11.69%
on 09/13/18
+0.11 (+1.07%)
since 08/28/18
9.83 +6.00%
on 09/27/18
12.29 -15.22%
on 06/29/18
-1.83 (-14.94%)
since 06/28/18
9.83 +6.00%
on 09/27/18
15.49 -32.73%
on 11/27/17
-4.24 (-28.92%)
since 09/28/17

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Sugar Prices Recover Early Losses and Close Higher on Robust Demand for Brazil Ethanol

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Tuesday closed up by +0.19 (+1.64%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed up by +3.10 (+0.96%). July NY sugar recovered from a 7-1/2 month low Tuesday and...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 10.78
1st Resistance Point 10.60
Last Price 10.42s
1st Support Level 10.12
2nd Support Level 9.82

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52-Week High 15.49
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.33
Fibonacci 50% 12.66
Fibonacci 38.2% 11.99
Last Price 10.42s
52-Week Low 9.83

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