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Crude Oil WTI Cash (CLY00)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures Market News and Commentary

Energy Complex Closes Sharply Higher after Attack Shuts Down Half of Saudi Oil Production

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) on Monday closed up by +8.05 (+14.68%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) closed up by +8.80 (+14.61%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) closed up +0.1993 (+12.83%). The energy complex rallied sharply Monday with Oct WTI crude oil and Nov Brent crude at 3-3/4 month highs, and Oct RBOB gasoline at a 6-week high. Crude prices surged Monday after Saudi Arabia lost about half of its oil production output (i.e., 5 mln bpd of total 9.8 mln bpd production), representing about 5% of total world output, due to a drone attack and fire at its key Abqaiq oil processing facility on Saturday. Saudi Arabia's Aramco said today that they were less optimistic about a rapid recovery in oil production as the damage was more severe than initially reported. Tensions were also high due to concern about a possible U.S. military strike against Iran after when President Trump on Sunday said the U.S. is "locked and loaded depending on verification" that Iran staged the drone attack and that he's awaiting word from Saudi Arabia about who it believed caused the attack and "under what terms we will proceed." The upward spike in crude oil prices was undercut by President Trump's statement on Sunday that he may release crude supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if needed "in a to-be-determined amount sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied." Monday's Chinese economic data signals a slowdown in China's economy, which is negative for global economic prospects and energy demand. China Aug industrial production rose by only +4.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.2% y/y and the smallest increase in 17-1/2 years. Also, China Aug retail sales rose +7.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +7.9% y/y. Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 6 were -0.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +3.2% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -5.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 6 was unchanged at 12.4 million bpd, just below the record high of 12.5 million bpd in the week of Aug 23.
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
53.63 +17.25%
on 08/26/19
62.88 unch
on 09/16/19
+8.06 (+14.70%)
since 08/16/19
3-Month
51.14 +22.96%
on 08/07/19
62.88 unch
on 09/16/19
+10.39 (+19.79%)
since 06/14/19
52-Week
42.68 +47.33%
on 12/24/18
76.39 -17.69%
on 10/03/18
-6.10 (-8.84%)
since 09/14/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 62.88
1st Resistance Point 62.88
Last Price 62.88s
1st Support Level 62.88
2nd Support Level 62.88

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52-Week High 76.39
Fibonacci 61.8% 63.51
Last Price 62.88s
Fibonacci 50% 59.53
Fibonacci 38.2% 55.56
52-Week Low 42.68

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InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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