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Cocoa May '19 (CCK19)

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Cocoa Futures Market News and Commentary

Cocoa Prices See Some Short-Covering From Last Week's Lows

May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) on Monday closed sharply higher by +57 (+2.64%) on some short-covering from last Thursday's 3-3/4 month low. May ICE London cocoa # 7 (CAK19) closed up +49 (+3.01%) on an upward rebound from last Thursday's 1-3/4 month low. Cocoa on Monday saw some heavy short-covering after last Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that money managers boosted their net short cocoa positions to a 5-month high of 34,944 futures contracts. Monday's rally came despite generally bearish fundamentals with favorable weather and ample supply. Rain was normal or above-average across most of the Ivory Coast and southern Ghana during March 17-23, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, although the rainy season has started in Western Africa and farmers are concerned about potential flooding. The Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, reported on Monday that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.624 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Mar 24, up +12.0% from the same time last year. Meanwhile in Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer, the Ghana Cocoa Board on Monday said that cocoa purchases from farmers for the first 19 weeks of the harvest (Oct 5 through Feb 14) rose +6.2% y/y to 664,019 MT. Nigeria's Feb cocoa-bean exports were reported on Monday at up +16% y/y to 13,143 MT but were down sharply by -77% from January due to reduced inventory levels at warehouses. Current cocoa supplies are abundant as cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses were at 4.227 million bags on Monday, just mildly below last Monday's 5-3/4 month high of 4.269 mln bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Cocoa
Contract Size
10 metric tonnes (22,046 pounds)
Tick Size
$1.00 per metric tonne ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:45a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 10:50a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$10
Margin/Maintenance
$2,090/1,900
First Notice Date
04/16/19 (22 days)
Expiration Date
05/15/19 (51 days)

Seasonal Chart

Cocoa May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
134,619 (+2,976)
117,433 (-2,232)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
54,660 (-2,051)
71,574 (+3,629)
Producers - Long / Short
106,694 (+2,918)
106,526 (-4,269)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
20,652 (-2,005)
3,634 (-26)
Managed Money - Long / Short
34,640 (-847)
70,326 (+3,653)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
20,020 (-1,204)
1,248 (-24)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2,113 +4.87%
on 03/21/19
2,317 -4.36%
on 02/27/19
-40 (-1.77%)
since 02/25/19
3-Month
2,113 +4.87%
on 03/21/19
2,464 -10.06%
on 12/31/18
-121 (-5.18%)
since 12/24/18
52-Week
2,023 +9.54%
on 10/01/18
2,840 -21.97%
on 05/07/18
-432 (-16.31%)
since 03/23/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2,299
1st Resistance Point 2,257
Last Price 2,216s
1st Support Level 2,160
2nd Support Level 2,105

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52-Week High 2,840
Fibonacci 61.8% 2,528
Fibonacci 50% 2,432
Fibonacci 38.2% 2,335
Last Price 2,216s
52-Week Low 2,023

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