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Cocoa May '19 (CCK19)

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Cocoa Futures Market News and Commentary

Cocoa Prices Close Higher on Tighter ICE Cocoa Inventories

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU19) on Friday closed up by +56 (+2.29%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU19) is up by +32 (+1.77%). Tightness in current cocoa supplies has prompted short-covering in cocoa futures as ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen for six consecutive sessions to a 5-week low Thursday. Cocoa prices fell to 2-week lows Thursday on weather forecasts for drier conditions in West Africa, which should alleviate flooding concerns and allow farmers to deliver their cocoa beans to ports. Cocoa production remains solid as Monday's data from the Ivory Coast government showed that Ivory Coast cocoa farmers sent 2.065 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Jun 16, up +16.7% from the same time last year. Also, Reuters reported Friday that the Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop this year may reach a record 600,000 MT, citing exporters and pod counters. Cocoa production also remains strong in Ghana after data from the Ghana Cocoa Board last Tuesday showed that cocoa purchases from Ghana farmers during the first 33 weeks of the harvest (Oct 5 through May 23) rose +4.0% y/y to 751,185 MT. Cocoa prices rallied to 1-year highs June 12 after Ivory Coast and Ghana processors and buyers agreed to set a minimum price of $2600/MT for the 2020/21 season, although there is some concern that the high minimum price will result in overproduction. Another supportive factor for cocoa prices is the recent outbreak of the swollen shoot virus in Ghana that causes smaller cocoa beans and reduces yields after Ghana's Cocoa Board on May 28 said it may need to cut its Ghana 2018/19 cocoa crop estimate to 800,000 MT from a prior view of 850,000 MT. A potential bearish factor for London cocoa is an extremely long position by funds after Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds boosted their long positions on ICE cocoa futures by 4,580 the week ended June 18 to a 13-month high of 50,862 long positions, which increases the threat of long liquidation pressure. Big Picture Cocoa Market Factors: Bullish factors for cocoa include (1) the action by Ghana and the Ivory Coast, who together account for about 60% of the world's cocoa output, to suspend cocoa-bean sales for the 2020/21 season due to the implementation of a high minimum price of $2,600/ton, (2) an outbreak of the swollen shoot virus in Ghana that prompted Ghana's Cocoa Board to cut its Ghana 2018/19 cocoa crop estimate to 800,000 MT from a prior view of 850,000 MT, and (3) strong cocoa consumption in Q1, which rose by +2.0% y/y to 121.129 MT in North America, +3.3% y/y to 370,359 MT in Europe, and +9.5% y/y to 208,388 MT in Asia. Bearish factors for cocoa include (1) ICCO's projection that the 2018/19 global cocoa surplus will widen to +39,000 MT from +9,000 MT in 2017/18, and (2) ample current supplies after cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses climbed to a 10-1/2 month high on May 29 of 4.665 million bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Cocoa
Contract Size
10 metric tonnes (22,046 pounds)
Tick Size
$1.00 per metric tonne ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:45a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 10:50a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$10
Margin/Maintenance
$2,090/1,900
First Notice Date
04/16/19
Expiration Date
05/15/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Cocoa May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 18, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
108,323 (-6,662)
157,018 (-1,995)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
82,139 (+6,003)
38,812 (+1,511)
Producers - Long / Short
81,891 (-6,283)
146,577 (-435)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
18,026 (+1,671)
2,035 (+490)
Managed Money - Long / Short
68,022 (+5,304)
30,116 (-842)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
14,117 (+699)
8,696 (+2,353)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2,260 +3.45%
on 04/24/19
2,420 -3.39%
on 04/17/19
-68 (-2.83%)
since 04/15/19
3-Month
2,113 +10.65%
on 03/21/19
2,454 -4.73%
on 04/11/19
-1 (-0.04%)
since 02/15/19
52-Week
2,023 +15.57%
on 10/01/18
2,743 -14.76%
on 05/16/18
-358 (-13.28%)
since 05/15/18

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Most Recent Stories

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Cotton Down 7.2% This Week

Cotton futures fell another 202 points in July on Friday, closing down 7.2% on the week. Other contracts were 37 to 77 points lower. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding 144...

Livestock Report

Hogs Limit Down

Cocoa Prices Close Higher on Tighter ICE Cocoa Inventories

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU19) on Friday closed up by +56 (+2.29%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU19) is up by +32 (+1.77%). Tightness in current cocoa supplies has prompted short-covering in cocoa...

Coffee Prices Close Lower on Reduced Weather Concerns in Brazil

September arabica coffee (KCU19) on Friday closed down by -1.15 (-1.13%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed down -5 (-0.35%). Coffee prices fell back from 1-week highs Friday and closed lower...

Sugar Prices Settle Lower on the Outlook for Ample Global Sugar Supply

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) on Friday closed down -0.20 (-1.58%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed down -7.10 (-2.14%). Sugar prices sold off Friday with Oct NY sugar at a 2-week...

Cotton Lower Again on Friday

Cotton futures are showing another day of triple digit losses in the front month, posting the lowest price since May 2016. Other nearby contacts are 27 to 67 points lower. Total upland cotton export commitments...

Coffee Prices are Mixed as Reduced Weather Concerns in Brazil Undercut Arabica Prices

September arabica coffee (KCU19) this morning is down by -0.50 (-0.49%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) is up +8 (+0.56%). Coffee prices are mixed this morning after posting 1-week highs. Arabica...

Sugar Prices Remain Under Pressure on the Outlook for Ample Global Sugar Supply

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) this morning is down -0.04 (-0.32%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) is down -3.70 (-1.12%). Sugar prices are weaker today with Oct NY sugar at a 1-1/2 week...

Cocoa Prices Move Higher on Tighter ICE Cocoa Inventories

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU19) this morning is up by +43 (+1.76%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU19) is up by +24 (+1.32%). Tightness in current cocoa supplies has prompted short-covering in cocoa...

Softs Report 06/21/19

COTTON General Comments: Cotton was lower on the export sales report that showed net cancellations for the current crop year. Turkey and China cancelled [...]

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2,338
1st Resistance Point 2,338
Last Price 2,338s
1st Support Level 2,338
2nd Support Level 2,338

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52-Week High 2,743
Fibonacci 61.8% 2,468
Fibonacci 50% 2,383
Last Price 2,338s
Fibonacci 38.2% 2,298
52-Week Low 2,023

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InsideFutures Commentary

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