December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.19%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.39% this morning as investors gear up for a week of key U.S. economic data amid growing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.
Lower bond yields today are supporting stock index futures. Treasury yields slipped as traders bet that delayed economic reports coming this week would strengthen the case for a Fed rate cut in December.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher. Ross Stores (ROST) climbed over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the off-price retailer posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year earnings guidance. Also, most chip stocks advanced, with GlobalFoundries (GFS) rising more than +5% and ON Semiconductor (ON) gaining over +4%. In addition, Intuit (INTU) rose more than +4% after the maker of TurboTax reported stronger-than-expected FQ1 results. On the bearish side, Veeva Systems (VEEV) slumped over -9% after the cloud software provider reported weaker-than-expected Q3 adjusted gross margin.
“It’s hard to call a bottom to the correction, but if the better bets on a December Fed cut come through, we will likely have a material rebound in December,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in November, slightly weaker than expectations of 52.0, while the S&P Global services PMI unexpectedly rose to 55.0, stronger than expectations of 54.6. Also, the University of Michigan’s U.S. November consumer sentiment index was revised higher to 51.0, stronger than expectations of 50.6.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday he sees scope for the central bank to cut interest rates again in the near term as the labor market weakens. At the same time, Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled that keeping interest rates on hold would be “appropriate for now,” as inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time. In addition, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “With two rate cuts now in place, I’d find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 75.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 24.5% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s December meeting.
As uncertainty around the Fed’s December interest rate decision remains high, investors will continue to scrutinize economic data. In this holiday-shortened week, market watchers will closely monitor the September Retail Sales report, wholesale-focused Producer Price Index, and Durable Goods Orders data. The data were delayed by the recent government shutdown and were originally scheduled for release in October. Other noteworthy data releases include the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., Pending Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago PMI. Notably, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has rescheduled two releases that were originally set for publication this week after the shutdown, including the second estimate of Q3 gross domestic product and the October PCE Price Index.
Investors will also focus on earnings reports from several high-profile names. Prominent companies such as Dell Technologies (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Analog Devices (ADI), Deere & Company (DE), Workday (WDAY), Agilent Technologies (A), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), and Zscaler (ZS) are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
In addition, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts this week, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The report will likely underscore weakness in employment and activity. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Also, the stock markets will close early on Black Friday, with trading ending at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.047%, down -0.39%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.22% this morning as rising expectations for a Fed rate cut in December bolstered sentiment, while investors closely monitored developments on a Ukraine peace plan. Strength in bank and technology stocks is lending support to the overall market on Monday. At the same time, defense stocks extended their declines after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Ukraine to accept a peace deal with Russia. A survey released on Monday showed that German business morale unexpectedly fell in November, reflecting a gloomier outlook for the coming months. It indicates that companies “have little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. Meanwhile, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that trade talks between the EU and the U.S. are making progress, though more work remains on issues such as steel tariffs. Investor focus in the region is squarely on the U.K. budget on November 26th. Chancellor Rachel Reeves needs to find as much as 30 billion pounds ($39 billion) in additional funds to restore stability to the public finances. The U.K. government said over the weekend that it plans to keep rail fares unchanged in the upcoming budget. Investors will also focus on preliminary November inflation data from four of the region’s largest economies, along with remarks from several European Central Bank officials, including President Christine Lagarde. In addition, the ECB will release the accounts of its October policy meeting this week. In corporate news, Bayer AG (BAYN.D.DX) climbed over +9% after the pharmaceutical company reported encouraging study results for its anticoagulant asundexian.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was released today.
The German November Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 88.1, weaker than expectations of 88.6.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.05%, while Japan’s financial markets were closed for a national holiday.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses and closed slightly higher today. Chip-related stocks initially slumped and weighed on the benchmark index following a report that U.S. officials are holding early talks to allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China. The H200 chips would mark a major upgrade from the H20, which the U.S. approved earlier this year but China rejected over alleged security concerns. However, most semiconductor stocks erased early losses and closed higher as analysts suggested China may have little interest in the H200 chips or could require state-owned enterprises to purchase domestically made chips to support self-sufficiency efforts. Also, defense stocks climbed after China’s foreign minister said Japan had crossed a red line with its comments on Taiwan. At the same time, energy and bank stocks underperformed. Meanwhile, trading in eight Chinese exchange-traded funds, widely used by the so-called national team of state-linked investors, jumped to around 29 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) on Friday, about double the past month’s daily average, as the stock market tumbled, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. While it’s unclear whether the national team was behind the flows, trading activity in these ETFs has typically spiked during market selloffs, fueling speculation that state-led investors are supporting stocks. In corporate news, Alibaba Group climbed over +4% in Hong Kong after the company said its ChatGPT-like Qwen AI assistant surpassed 10 million downloads in its first week of public beta testing. Investors await China’s industrial profit data for October this week to see whether the stretch of strong profits continued following a sharp increase in September and a stronger-than-expected increase in August. Market participants also look ahead to the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December for signals on next year’s policy agenda. “We expect Beijing to maintain its growth target at ‘around 5%’ for 2026 ... emphasising flexibility through the word ‘around,’” said Serena Zhou, senior China economist at Mizuho Securities.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday. The markets will reopen on Tuesday.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Chip stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, with Micron Technology (MU) rising more than +2% and Intel (INTC) gaining about +1%.
Tesla (TSLA) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after CEO Elon Musk said Sunday in a post on X that the company has already designed several million AI chips for its vehicles and data centers.
Meta Platforms (META) advanced nearly +1% in pre-market trading after BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating and $800 price target.
Booking Holdings (BKNG) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $6,000 price target.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rising in pre-market trading as Bitcoin recovered part of its recent losses over the weekend. Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +1%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up over +1%, and Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +2%.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - November 24th
Agilent Technologies (A), Symbotic (SYM), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Zoom Video (ZM), Woodward (WWD), Semtech (SMTC), INTL FCStone (SNEX), Corporacion America Airports (CAAP), Fluence Energy (FLNC), Central Garden&Pet (CENT), Tuya (TUYA), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), Lexinfintech (LX), Waldencast Acquisition (WALD), Alico (ALCO).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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