Stocks Set to Open Lower Amid Tariff Uncertainty, Nvidia Earnings and U.S. Economic Data Awaited

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.48%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.65% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as heightened uncertainty about U.S. trade policy dampened sentiment.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, a day after the Supreme Court struck down his “reciprocal” tariffs. “I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been “ripping” the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. Notably, the 15% global tariffs are imposed under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and are permitted to remain in effect for 150 days. Mr. Trump also cautioned that additional tariffs would follow. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is adding another layer of complexity to markets already unsettled by concerns over AI disruption and U.S.-Iran tensions.

Investor focus this week is on an earnings report from chip giant Nvidia, whose results have become a barometer for the AI trade, a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Alphabet (GOOGL) climbing over +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Amazon.com (AMZN) rising more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Lam Research (LRCX) rising over +3% and Analog Devices (ADI) advancing more than +2%. In addition, Corning (GLW) surged over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $160 from $125. On the bearish side, cybersecurity software stocks sank after Anthropic PBC rolled out a new security feature in its Claude AI model, with Cloudflare (NET) slumping more than -8%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) sliding over -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, rose +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Also, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its initial estimate of Q4 GDP growth, said the economy grew at a +1.4% annualized rate, weaker than expectations of +2.8%. In addition, U.S. December personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, in line with expectations, and personal income grew +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Finally, the University of Michigan’s U.S. February consumer sentiment index was revised lower to 56.6, weaker than expectations of 56.9.

Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, said the core PCE report underscores the uneven nature of the inflation battle. “It’s not the direction that investors or the Fed want to see,” he said, pointing out that core PCE has now increased for three straight months. Separately, Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, described the combination of softer growth and firmer inflation as “unwelcome.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that it is prudent to keep rates “mildly restrictive” to bring inflation back to the 2% level and that current Fed policy is 25-50 basis points above neutral. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she was “cautiously optimistic” that the current monetary policy stance indicates “we’re on a path for inflation to come back down toward our target.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.9% chance of no rate change and a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.

All eyes will be on Nvidia (NVDA) this week, as the semiconductor giant prepares to report its fourth-quarter and fiscal-year results on Wednesday. Investors anticipate that the company will beat Wall Street’s expectations and provide strong guidance for the current quarter. However, analysts said there may be little the company can do or say to meaningfully lift its shares amid growing skepticism about AI at the moment. Retailers such as Home Depot (HD), The TJX Companies (TJX), and Lowe’s (LOW), along with notable companies like Salesforce (CRM), Intuit (INTU), Dell Technologies (DELL), and CoreWeave (CRWV), are also set to release their quarterly results this week.

Market watchers will also keep a close eye on several U.S. economic data releases this week amid uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s next interest rate cut. The U.S. Producer Price Index for January will be the main highlight, providing further insight into the outlook for inflation. Other noteworthy data releases include the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending, and the Chicago PMI.

In addition, market participants will parse comments from a slew of Fed officials. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, along with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, are scheduled to speak this week.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s annual State of the Union address on Tuesday will also attract attention. Investors will monitor the address for signals on trade and other policy priorities ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

“Tomorrow’s State of the Union will likely define how far Trump wants to go with the tariff rhetoric,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Factory Orders data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to drop -0.4% m/m in December, following a +2.7% m/m jump in November.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.077%, down -0.29%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.21% this morning, rattled by a new wave of uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Technology and industrial stocks underperformed on Monday. Defense stocks also slumped after Reuters reported that Iran signaled it is willing to make concessions on its nuclear program if the U.S. meets certain demands. Limiting losses, bank and utility stocks advanced. A survey released on Monday showed that German business morale rose more than expected in February, as the rollout of government stimulus gains momentum. “The German economy is showing the first signs of recovery,” said Ifo’s president Clemens Fuest. Separately, final data from the statistics agency ISTAT confirmed that Italy’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.0% in January. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday that the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling could lead to fresh business disruptions. The European Commission urged on Sunday that the U.S. stick to the terms of an EU-U.S. trade deal reached last year. The Commission said Washington should provide “full clarity” on the measures it plans to take following the court ruling. At the same time, the European Union is set to halt the ratification process of its deal with the U.S. and is seeking additional details from the Trump administration. Investor focus this week is also on the final Eurozone inflation data for January, along with preliminary February inflation figures from Germany, France, and Spain. Also, several ECB officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Primoz Dolenc. In corporate news, Enel Spa (ENEL.M.DX) climbed over +5% after Italy’s largest utility said it plans to boost capital expenditure over the next three years and unveiled a 1 billion euro share buyback program. At the same time, Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) tumbled more than -11% after the drugmaker said its CagriSema experimental obesity drug failed to surpass the weight loss achieved by Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in a head-to-head clinical trial.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index and Italy’s CPI data were released today.

The German February Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 88.6, stronger than expectations of 88.4.

The Italian January CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

Financial markets in Japan and mainland China were closed for holidays.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen on Tuesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Emperor’s Birthday holiday. The markets will reopen on Tuesday.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Arm Holdings (ARM) falling over -1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slid in pre-market trading, with the price of Bitcoin down more than -1%. Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -2%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down over -2%, and Coinbase (COIN) is down more than -1%.

International Paper (IP), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), and Smurfit Westrock (SW) slumped over -5% in pre-market trading after index provider RISI reported that containerboard prices dropped by $20 a ton this month.

Alphabet (GOOGL) rose about +0.5% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $387.

Arcellx (ACLX) jumped more than +78% in pre-market trading after Gilead Sciences agreed to acquire the company in a deal with an equity value of up to $7.8 billion.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - February 23rd

Dominion Energy (D), ONEOK (OKE), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Viper Energy (VNOM), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS), Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE), Penumbra (PEN), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Ovintiv (OVV), BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), Summit Therapeutics (SMMT), Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Primoris Services (PRIM), Clearway Energy (CWEN.A), Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP), UFP Industries (UFPI), Super Group (SGHC), Clearway Energy (CWEN), International Bancshares (IBOC), Freshpet (FRPT), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Genworth Financial (GNW), Paymentus Holdings (PAY), Black Stone Minerals (BSM), Boise Cascade Company (BCC), Quaker Chemical (KWR), Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT), GeneDx Holdings (WGS), V2X, Inc. (VVX), Addus HomeCare (ADUS), Adeia (ADEA), Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (SKWD), Innovex International (INVX), Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX), Stepan Company (SCL), Tennant Company (TNC), Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC), Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI), Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), Ziff Davis (ZD), Easterly Government Properties (DEA), ACV Auctions (ACVA), Vir Biotechnology (VIR), Theravance Biopharma (TBPH), Douglas Dynamics (PLOW), Lincoln Educational Services (LINC), SI-BONE (SIBN), Cannae Holdings (CNNE), HealthStream (HSTM), EverQuote (EVER), MediaAlpha (MAX).