Stock Index Futures Soar on Tech Tariff Reprieve, U.S. Economic Data and Earnings in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are up +1.24%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are up +1.69% this morning, pointing to a strong open on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump paused import duties on various consumer electronics.

Sentiment got a boost after the Trump administration exempted smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives, computer processors and memory chips, as well as flat-screen displays, from its so-called reciprocal tariffs. The exclusions, published late Friday by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, reduce the scope of the levies by excluding the products from President Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global tariff on nearly all other countries. Still, the White House stated that the pause in the duties is temporary and part of the longstanding strategy to implement a distinct, targeted levy on the sector. Trump on Sunday vowed to unveil new tariffs on semiconductors over the next week.

This week, investors look ahead to earnings reports from a stellar lineup of companies, key economic data releases, and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Apple (AAPL) rising over +4% to lead gainers in the Dow and Nvidia (NVDA) gaining more than +3%. Also, gold mining stocks rallied after the price of gold hit a new all-time high, with AngloGold Ashanti (AU) surging over +10% and Newmont (NEM) climbing more than +7%. In addition, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose +4% after the biggest U.S. bank posted better-than-expected Q1 results and raised its FY25 net interest income forecast. On the bearish side, U.S. semiconductor stocks slumped after the China Semiconductor Association stated that chip tariffs would be based on the location of manufacture, not the shipping origin, with Texas Instruments (TXN) sliding over -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

“Markets remain emotionally charged. Markets are still searching for footing amid unresolved trade tensions, earnings uncertainty, and macroeconomic headwinds,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. 

Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand came in at -0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y in March, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.3% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, arrived at -0.1% m/m and +3.3% y/y in March, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y. In addition, the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index fell to a 2-3/4 year low of 50.8 in April, weaker than expectations of 54.0.

The Financial Times reported on Friday that Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated the central bank “would absolutely be prepared” to use its capabilities to stabilize financial markets if conditions turn disorderly. Collins noted that “markets are continuing to function well” and that “we’re not seeing liquidity concerns overall.” At the same time, she added that the Fed “does have tools to address concerns about market functioning or liquidity should they arise.” Other Fed officials - Kashkari, Musalem, and Williams - on Friday continued to voice concerns over the impact of U.S. tariff policy on the economy and prices.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 79.3% probability of no rate change and a 20.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s May meeting.

First-quarter corporate earnings season heats up this week, with results expected from several more big banks, including Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C). Also, major companies like Netflix (NFLX), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Travelers (TRV), CSX Corporation (CSX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), American Express (AXP), and DR Horton (DHI) are set to post quarterly results this week. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.

Market watchers will also be closely monitoring the U.S. March Retail Sales figures this week for indications of how American consumers are responding to President Trump’s trade policies. Economists expect retail sales to be “very strong,” pointing out that consumers made major purchases before the imposition of tariffs. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his assessment of the economy in a speech on Wednesday before the Economic Club of Chicago. A host of other Fed officials will also be making appearances throughout the week, including Barkin, Waller, Harker, Bostic, Cook, Hammack, Schmid, Barr, and Daly.

Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.

The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.443%, down -1.11%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +2.24% this morning as investors welcomed the news of a U.S. tariff exemption for certain tech items. Technology and bank stocks outperformed on Monday. However, uncertainty persisted as Trump stated on Sunday that tariffs on semiconductors would be announced within the next week and a decision on phones would come “soon.” Key questions for investors remain regarding the duration of Trump’s pause on his full “reciprocal tariff” plan, and how different countries will manage to negotiate without turning to their own retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the European Central Bank’s rate-setting meeting later in the week. The ECB is widely expected to lower the deposit rate by another 25 basis points to 2.25% on Thursday, as U.S. tariffs continue to threaten growth, despite some relief from the announcement of a 90-day pause and bilateral negotiations. Investor focus is also on the start of first-quarter earnings season this week, with companies now navigating an increasingly uncertain trade environment. In corporate news, Vallourec (VK.FP) gained over +5% after the company entered exclusive talks with Aldebaran to sell Serimax.

The European economic data slate is empty on Monday. 

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.76%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.18%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as expectations for stronger stimulus measures and hopes of an eventual trade deal with the U.S. outweighed concerns over a further escalation of trade tensions. China stated that the Trump administration’s exclusion of smartphones and computers from the “reciprocal” U.S. tariffs represents a minor move toward correcting wrongdoings and called on Washington to further retract the tariffs. Still, U.S. President Donald Trump clarified that the exempted items remain subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs. Bank stocks led the gains on Monday. Also, shares of electric vehicle makers extended gains following a report that China is negotiating with the European Union to establish minimum prices on EVs produced in the Asian nation, instead of imposing tariffs. At the same time, semiconductor stocks underperformed after Trump announced that chips from China would undergo a national security investigation over the next week. Meanwhile, customs data released on Monday showed that China’s exports jumped in March as shipments were likely front-loaded ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, but they are expected to weaken in the months ahead. In other news, Goldman Sachs strategists lowered their targets for major Chinese stock indexes for the second time this month, citing escalating trade tensions. In corporate news, Baota Industry climbed over +6% after the company announced a change in its acquisition strategy for Ningxia Electric Power Investment New Energy.

The Chinese March Trade Balance arrived at $102.64B, stronger than expectations of $74.30B.

The Chinese March Exports stood at +12.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.4% y/y.

The Chinese March Imports came in at -4.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.0% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today after the U.S. paused tariffs on certain consumer electronics and Tokyo geared up for tariff negotiations this week. Electronics stocks led the gains on Monday. Data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry released on Monday showed that Japan’s industrial production growth was revised lower in February. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to upcoming trade talks between Washington and Tokyo, which public broadcaster NHK reported are scheduled for April 17th. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Akazawa Ryosei, is set to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer later this week. Over the weekend, Japan said it had no plans to use its holdings of U.S. Treasuries as leverage in negotiations to counter U.S. tariffs. In other news, Politico reported that Trump is engaged in serious trade negotiations with partners strategically important to China, including Japan and South Korea. Investors continue to watch developments on the broader trade policy front after Trump announced he would unveil new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In corporate news, shares of Apple suppliers advanced, with Taiyo Yuden climbing over +6% and Alps Alpine rising more than +5%. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -12.29% to 38.91.

The Japanese February Industrial Production arrived at +2.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.5% m/m.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Apple (AAPL) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading following a U.S. tariff exemption for a range of consumer electronics. Also, KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Sector Weight from Underweight.

Chip stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading on Trump tariff exemptions. Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%.

Intel (INTC) gained over +3% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that the company was nearing a deal to sell a stake in its programmable chips unit to Silver Lake Management.

Cricut (CRCT) dropped about -1% in pre-market trading after Citi downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $4.

Comcast (CMCSA) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $31.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - April 14th

Goldman Sachs (GS), M&T Bank (MTB), Pinnacle (PNFP), FB Financial (FBK), Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS), Applied Digital (APLD), Biostem Tech (BSEM), AstroNova (ALOT).