Stocks Set for Muted Open as Investors Await Big Tech Earnings and Fed Meeting; Middle East Developments in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are down -0.09%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.06% this morning as investors refrain from making big bets at the start of a busy week featuring earnings from major tech names, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and a raft of U.S. economic data.

Market participants are also keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East. The price of WTI crude rose over +2% on Monday as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. President Trump on Saturday told his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, and later told reporters that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough.” Mr. Trump also said that Iran reacted swiftly to his decision to call off the trip by U.S. envoys. “Interestingly, immediately, when I canceled it, within 10 minutes, we got a new paper that was much better,” he said, without providing further details. Axios reported on Monday that Iran presented the U.S. with a new proposal to reopen the strait and bring the war to an end, with nuclear negotiations deferred to a later phase.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Intel (INTC) jumped over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker reported Q1 results that blew past Wall Street estimates and delivered a blockbuster Q2 sales forecast. Also, software stocks climbed, with ServiceNow (NOW) rising more than +6% and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) gaining over +5%. In addition, Organon & Co. (OGN) soared more than +30% after The Economic Times reported that Sun Pharma was planning to submit a binding offer of $13 billion for the company. On the bearish side, Charter Communications (CHTR) cratered over -25% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the cable-and-broadband company posted weaker-than-expected Q1 EPS and CFO Jessica Fischer said average revenue per user could remain roughly flat for the remainder of the year.

Economic data released on Friday was positive for equities. The University of Michigan’s U.S. April consumer sentiment index was revised upward to 49.8, stronger than expectations of 48.5.

“We believe strong earnings growth is a key reason markets have become less sensitive to geopolitical headlines and swings in oil prices,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones.

First-quarter corporate earnings season hits full throttle, with five of the Magnificent Seven companies—Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL)—set to report results this week. These companies account for a staggering 24% of the S&P 500’s market value. “Big tech earnings will help to confirm whether or not the sector’s share price gains in recent weeks are justified,” said David Laut at Kerux Financial. “The big tech stock correction that started prior to the Iran war has just about run its course, and valuations are back to elevated levels. The outlook for big tech stocks depends purely on earnings.” Sandisk (SNDK), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), Western Digital (WDC), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Merck & Co. (MRK), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Coca-Cola (KO), Caterpillar (CAT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) are among other major names scheduled to deliver quarterly updates during the week. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Market participants will also keep a close eye on the Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference. The central bank is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, as energy prices remain elevated and supply chains remain snarled due to the Middle East conflict. “We still have a very high level of uncertainty on what’s happening in the Middle East,” according to KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim. As economic data released since the Fed’s last meeting have shown little evidence of weakening in the labor market, policymakers will likely place greater emphasis on the inflation side of their dual mandate. Investors will watch closely to see whether the Fed signals in its post-meeting statement that rate hikes are a possibility.

Meanwhile, the April FOMC meeting will likely be Jerome Powell’s final one as head of the U.S. central bank. Senator Thom Tillis said on Sunday in a statement that he is lifting his blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Fed, saying the Justice Department’s decision to end a criminal probe targeting Mr. Powell eliminated a threat to the central bank’s independence. Tillis’ decision paves the way for Warsh’s swift confirmation to succeed Powell, whose term ends on May 15th. The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs’ vote is scheduled to take place on Wednesday. If the Senate committee advances Warsh’s nomination, the full Senate will proceed with a confirmation vote.

In addition, market watchers will monitor a flurry of U.S. economic data. The advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will offer insight into how the economy has performed during the Middle East conflict. The U.S. March core personal consumption expenditures price index will also attract attention. Economists expect the inflation impact from the conflict to show up in the Fed’s preferred price gauge. Other noteworthy data releases include the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, the Employment Cost Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, the Chicago PMI, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.32%, up +0.28%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.22% this morning as investors gear up for a week filled with central bank meetings, while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East. Energy stocks outperformed on Monday as oil prices rose. Limiting gains, food and beverage and technology stocks slipped. A survey released on Monday showed that German consumer sentiment is expected to deteriorate heading into May as the Middle East conflict dampened income expectations and hopes for a tentative economic rebound this year amid soaring energy prices. “Income expectations are literally collapsing because of rising inflation. And in this context, people also currently believe that the timing for major purchases is less favorable,” said Rolf Buerkl, head of consumer climate at NIM. Separately, a European Central Bank survey showed that Eurozone firms expect inflation to jump in the near term because of the conflict, while longer-term expectations remained stable and wage growth is projected to ease. Investor focus this week is on monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. The ECB is widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% as it assesses the impact of the Middle East conflict. Investors will be eager to hear any signal from policymakers about the need for a rate hike, with economists anticipating a quarter-point move at the next ECB meeting. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%. Any shift in guidance will draw investor attention, given that the conflict has likely both fueled inflation pressures and undermined growth prospects. Beyond monetary policy, attention will center on preliminary Eurozone inflation data for April and the initial estimate of first-quarter GDP, reflecting the conflict’s impact on both inflation and growth. In corporate news, Nordex SE (NDX1.D.DX) surged over +11% after the German onshore wind turbine maker reported stronger-than-expected Q1 core earnings and sales.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index was released today.

The German May GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -33.3, weaker than expectations of -30.2.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.16%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.38%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as solid industrial profit data and AI optimism boosted sentiment. Semiconductor stocks rallied on Monday, extending last Friday’s gains after DeepSeek’s long-awaited AI model debut fueled expectations of stronger demand for Made-in-China chips. Sentiment was also supported by Moore Threads’ +8% jump after the AI chipmaker announced that its Q1 revenue more than doubled and that it had posted its first quarterly profit. Data from the National Statistics Bureau released on Monday showed that China’s industrial profits surged in March despite tighter global energy markets amid the Middle East conflict, partly supported by Beijing’s front-loaded policy measures. Profits at industrial firms increased 15.8% in March from a year earlier, accelerating from a 15.2% gain in the January-February period, largely driven by strength in China’s equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors. Still, senior government statistician Yu Weining warned that China is confronting an uncertain external backdrop, along with an ongoing domestic imbalance between strong supply and subdued demand. “Moving forward, the higher energy prices are likely to translate into higher input costs for producers, which will either need to be passed on to consumers or absorbed through thinner margins and weaker profitability,” said Lynn Song at ING. Investor focus now shifts to China’s official PMIs for April due later this week, as surveys elsewhere begin to reflect the strain from supply-chain disruptions and price pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Many economists anticipate a pullback in both gauges, with some projecting a drop back below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion. Attention will also turn to a Politburo meeting, where Chinese leaders are expected to deliberate on economic policy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a record high today, supported by optimism over corporate earnings and a flicker of hope following a report on a new proposal to end the Middle East conflict. The Nikkei slipped into negative territory shortly after the open but then rebounded sharply after Axios reported that Iran had presented the U.S. with a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. The benchmark index closed above the key 60,000 threshold for the first time. Chip stocks led the gains on Monday amid a continued surge in AI-driven demand. Industrial and retail stocks also advanced. Meanwhile, Rakuten Securities strategist Masayuki Kubota said on Monday that net profit projections for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime Market are expected to indicate double-digit growth for the fiscal year ending March 2027. “While the manufacturing sector faces headwinds from Trump tariffs, corporate earnings should be solid, supported by a weak yen and a robust U.S. economy,” Kubota said. On the economic front, data showed on Monday that Japan’s February leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised higher. In corporate news, factory automation provider Keyence and industrial robot maker Fanuc jumped about +16% after reporting better-than-expected profit. Investor attention this week is on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.75% amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with focus turning to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s policy signals. The Policy Board will also release its latest projections for growth and inflation. In addition, attention will be on Japan’s economic data, including Tokyo core CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.14% to 29.55.

The Japanese February Leading Index came in at 113.3, stronger than expectations of 112.4.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Organon & Co. (OGN) jumped over +15% in pre-market trading after Sun Pharma agreed to acquire the company for $14 per share in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of $11.75 billion.

Qualcomm (QCOM) surged more than +11% in pre-market trading after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said OpenAI was working with the company to develop smartphone processors, with mass production expected to begin in 2028.

Sandisk (SNDK) gained over +2% in pre-market trading after Melius Research initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating. Also, Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $1,100 from $690.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $520.

GE Vernova (GEV) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - April 27th

Verizon Communications (VZ), Southern Copper (SCCO), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Public Storage (PSA), Nucor (NUE), Celestica (CLS), Ventas (VTR), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), Brown & Brown (BRO), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Rambus (RMBS), Sun Communities (SUI), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Crown Holdings (CCK), Universal Health Services (UHS), Sanmina (SANM), Crane Company (CR), Brixmor Property Group (BRX), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Simpson Manufacturing Co. (SSD), NOV Inc. (NOV), Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI), Kilroy Realty (KRC), COPT Defense Properties (CDP), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), LendingClub (LC), Custom Truck One Source (CTOS), Northwest Bancshares (NWBI), Hillman Solutions (HLMN), German American Bancorp (GABC), Lakeland Financial (LKFN), Carter's (CRI), Coastal Financial (CCB), Easterly Government Properties (DEA), FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN), HBT Financial (HBT), Northeast Bank (NBN), Business First Bancshares (BFST), Five Star Bancorp (FSBC), Red River Bancshares (RRBI), California BanCorp (BCAL), Kforce (KFRC), Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC), Ranger Energy Services (RNGR), First Bank (FRBA), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC), Lightbridge (LTBR), Commercial Bancgroup (CBK), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Norwood Financial (NWFL), Avidbank Holdings (AVBH), Vista Gold (VGZ), Citizens Community Bancorp (CZWI).