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Sugar #11 Mar '19 (SBH19)

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cmdty Insider - Sugar #11 Market Commentary


March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Wednesday closed up +0.22 (+1.77%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed up +4.20 (+1.24%). Sugar prices on Wednesday gained on a weaker dollar and higher crude prices. Sugar prices on Tuesday fell to a 1-1/2 month low after crude oil prices sank to a 1-year low, which undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane to making sugar instead of ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies. Sugar prices also found support Wednesday on USDA estimates for smaller global output. The USDA's FAS lowered its global 2018/19 sugar production to 185.9 MMT from a May projection of 188.3 MMT, down -4.5% y/y. Gains were limited, though, as the USDA also projected that global 2018/19 sugar ending stocks will climb +2.7% y/y to a record 52.9 MMT as "massive" stock building in India outweighed lower ending stocks in China and the EU.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
03/01/19 (99 days)
Expiration Date
02/28/19 (98 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
427,590 (+31,366)
490,765 (+4,600)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
176,097 (-17,973)
135,246 (+2,017)
Producers - Long / Short
210,235 (+26,637)
432,188 (-1,621)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
197,229 (+1,108)
38,451 (+2,600)
Managed Money - Long / Short
141,237 (-17,153)
101,631 (+15,668)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
34,860 (-820)
33,615 (-13,651)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.36 +2.59%
on 11/20/18
14.24 -10.96%
on 10/24/18
-1.21 (-8.71%)
since 10/19/18
3-Month
10.80 +17.41%
on 09/27/18
14.24 -10.96%
on 10/24/18
+1.63 (+14.75%)
since 08/21/18
52-Week
10.80 +17.41%
on 09/27/18
15.96 -20.55%
on 01/04/18
-2.95 (-18.87%)
since 11/21/17

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Sugar Market Commentary

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Opinion rating is a Hold. Short term, the outlook is Bearish.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 12.99
1st Resistance Point 12.84
Last Price 12.68s
1st Support Level 12.47
2nd Support Level 12.25

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52-Week High 15.96
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.99
Fibonacci 50% 13.38
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.77
Last Price 12.68s
52-Week Low 10.80

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