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Sugar #11 Mar '19 (SBH19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Close Slightly Higher as Stronger Crude Oil Boosts Ethanol Prices

Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) on Friday closed up by +0.01 (+0.09%), and Oct ICE London white sugar #5 (SWV19) closed up by +0.60 (+0.19%). Sugar prices moved slightly higher Friday on strength in crude prices. Higher crude prices are positive for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to ethanol production rather than sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies. Gains in sugar were limited Friday as the Brazilian real fell -0.05% against the dollar, modestly above Wednesday's 2-3/4 month low. A weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. A positive factor for sugar was Wednesday's forecast from Citigroup for a supply tightening to a 2019/20 global sugar deficit of -7.2 MMT from a 2018/19 surplus of +2.5 MMT. Sugar has support from Unica data on Aug 5 that showed sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region in the second half of July fell by -5.5% y/y to 2.478 MMT, with cumulative production in the 2019-20 marketing year through July falling -9.9% y/y to 13.334 MMT. Another positive for sugar was the action by India's cabinet on July 24 to create a buffer stock of 4 million MT of sugar for 1-year starting Aug 1 in an attempt to lock up supply and support domestic sugar prices. An increase in monsoon rain in India is negative for sugar prices after India's Meteorological Department Aug 8 said India's July monsoon rains were 298.4 mm, 4.6% more than the long-term average. Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: World sugar production in 2019/20 (Apr/Mar) will climb +1% y/y to 180.7 MMT (USDA) after the +0.6% y/y rise to a record 185.2 MMT in 2018/19 (ISO). The world sugar surplus in 2018/19 fell to 1.832 MMT from the larger 2017/18 surplus of 7.3 MMT (ISO). Production by Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT, after production in 2018/19 (Apr/Mar) fell -17.2% y/y to an 11-year low of 31.4 MMT (Conab). Production by India, the world's second largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will fall -15% y/y to a 3-year low of 28 MT due to drought and a delayed monsoon season (India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd).

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
03/01/19
Expiration Date
02/28/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 13, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
524,376 (+36,464)
455,375 (+33,580)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
230,080 (+3,954)
311,808 (+10,795)
Producers - Long / Short
322,666 (+35,140)
408,877 (+31,012)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
170,987 (-1,277)
15,775 (-33)
Managed Money - Long / Short
151,071 (-1,271)
299,942 (+10,660)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
79,009 (+5,225)
11,866 (+135)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.47 +2.08%
on 01/30/19
13.50 -5.70%
on 02/20/19
-0.06 (-0.47%)
since 01/28/19
3-Month
11.69 +8.90%
on 01/03/19
13.50 -5.70%
on 02/20/19
-0.11 (-0.86%)
since 11/28/18
52-Week
10.80 +17.87%
on 09/27/18
14.90 -14.56%
on 03/06/18
-1.83 (-12.57%)
since 02/28/18

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Sugar Prices Close Slightly Higher as Stronger Crude Oil Boosts Ethanol Prices

Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) on Friday closed up by +0.01 (+0.09%), and Oct ICE London white sugar #5 (SWV19) closed up by +0.60 (+0.19%). Sugar prices moved slightly higher Friday on strength in crude...

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Sugar Prices Slightly Higher as Stronger Crude Oil Boosts Ethanol Prices

Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) this morning is up by +0.02 (+0.17%), and Oct ICE London white sugar #5 (SWV19) is up by +0.50 (+0.16%). Sugar prices are slightly higher this morning on strength in crude...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 24% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 13.04
1st Resistance Point 12.89
Last Price 12.73s
1st Support Level 12.61
2nd Support Level 12.48

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52-Week High 14.90
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.33
Fibonacci 50% 12.85
Last Price 12.73s
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.37
52-Week Low 10.80

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