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Natural Gas Jul '19 (NGN19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Rally on Forecasts for Warmer Weather in the East

July Nymex natural gas (NGN19) on Friday closed sharply higher by +0.062 (+2.67%). Nat gas prices on Friday rallied on some pre-weekend short-covering sparked by forecasts for warmer weather in the East that would boost air conditioning demand. The Commodity Weather Group is forecasting that temperatures will turn hotter in the East and cooler in the West during June 24-28. Nat-gas prices also rallied as U.S. oil production in the lower-48 states on Friday fell by -1.4% from Thursday to 84.9 bcf, although that is still up sharply by +8.8% y/y. Nat-gas prices generally remain on the defensive near last Thursday's 3-year nearest-futures low due to high U.S. gas production and high U.S. gas inventories. Thursday's weekly EIA inventory report showed that U.S nat-gas supplies rose +102 bcf, which was below expectations of +109 bcf but was still above the 5-year average for this time of year of 92 bcf. Thursday's EIA inventory report showed that U.S. nat gas inventories rose by more than their 5-year average for the eleventh consecutive week. Thursday's EIA data showed that U.S. nat-gas supplies stood at a 4-1/2 month high of 2.088 bcf as of June 7, up +9.1% y/y but -9.9% below the 5-year average. Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) solid demand from Mexico for U.S. nat-gas, (2) strong global natural gas demand due to firm global economic growth and the need to substitute for coal to reduce global CO2 emissions, and (3) significant U.S. LNG nat-gas export potential as more LNG ports are built in the U.S. and around the world. Bearish factors include (1) the action by China to raise tariffs on U.S. LNG exports to 25% from 10% as of June 1, which effectively eliminated any Chinese buying of U.S. nat-gas, (2) the rise in U.S. nat-gas inventories by more than the 5-year weekly average in each of the last eleven weeks through June 7, leaving inventories up +9.1% y/y (although -9.9% below the 5-year average), (3) near-record U.S. natural gas production and forecasts for production growth of +3% in 2019.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,540/1,400
First Notice Date
06/27/19 (10 days)
Expiration Date
06/26/19 (9 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Jul '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jul Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
615,018 (-15,106)
522,010 (-36,756)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
239,995 (+680)
366,943 (+23,123)
Producers - Long / Short
276,579 (-7,060)
285,893 (-22,016)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
195,114 (-3,030)
92,792 (-9,724)
Managed Money - Long / Short
162,258 (-1,751)
280,485 (+40,771)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
77,737 (+2,431)
86,458 (-17,648)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.305 +4.03%
on 06/06/19
2.731 -12.19%
on 05/20/19
-0.266 (-9.98%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
2.305 +4.03%
on 06/06/19
2.990 -19.80%
on 03/19/19
-0.506 (-17.42%)
since 03/15/19
52-Week
2.305 +4.03%
on 06/06/19
2.990 -19.80%
on 03/19/19
-0.304 (-11.25%)
since 06/15/18

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Natural Gas Prices Rally on Forecasts for Warmer Weather in the East

July Nymex natural gas (NGN19) on Friday closed sharply higher by +0.062 (+2.67%). Nat gas prices on Friday rallied on some pre-weekend short-covering sparked by forecasts for warmer weather in the East...

Crude Oil Prices Close Higher on Continued US/Iran Tensions

July WTI crude oil (CLN19) on Friday closed +0.23 (+0.44%), and Aug Brent crude oil (CBQ19) closed +0.70 (+1.14%). July RBOB gasoline (RBN19) closed up +0.0126 (+0.73%). Crude oil prices on Friday closed...

Crude Oil Going Nowhere Despite the Rising Tensions and Supply Cuts?

Crude oil bulls proved weaker and the strength they attempted to project yesterday, evaporated to a considerable degree. Neither today, they appear any stronger. Given the rising geopolitical tensions...

Natural Gas Prices Rally on Forecasts for Warmer Weather in the East

July Nymex natural gas (NGN19) today is up by +0.070 (+3.01%). Nat gas prices are higher today on short-covering after recent losses and on forecasts for warmer weather in the East that would boost air...

Crude Oil Prices Are Higher on Continued US/Iran Tensions

July WTI crude oil (CLN19) today is up +0.38 (+0.73%), and Aug Brent crude oil (CBQ19) is up +0.63 (+1.03%). July RBOB gasoline (RBN19) is up +0.146 (+0.85%). Crude oil prices today are higher on continued...

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It Wasn’t Us. The Energy Report 06/14/19

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Markets Rise Despite

Yesterday the markets rose despite "attacks" on oil tankers in the Gulf. Will the markets reverse course today? Read on to learn more...

Natural Gas Prices Close Lower on Normal U.S. Temps and Above-Average EIA Inventory Rise

July Nymex natural gas (NGN19) on Thursday closed down by -0.061 (-2.56%). Nat gas prices moved lower Thursday on forecasts for mild U.S. weather and another above-average gain in U.S. EIA nat-gas inventories....

Crude Oil Prices Settle Sharply Higher On New Tanker Attacks

July WTI crude oil (CLN19) on Thursday closed up by +1.14 (+2.23%), and Aug Brent crude oil (CBQ19) closed up by +1.34 (+2.23%). July RBOB gasoline (RBN19) closed up by +0.0338 (+2.00%). The energy complex...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Good. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.446
1st Resistance Point 2.416
Last Price 2.398
1st Support Level 2.340
2nd Support Level 2.294

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52-Week High 2.990
Fibonacci 61.8% 2.728
Fibonacci 50% 2.648
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.567
Last Price 2.398
52-Week Low 2.305

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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