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Coffee Sep '19 (KCU19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Arabica Coffee Falls to 2-3/4 Month Low on Robust Supplies

Sep arabica coffee (KCU19) on Friday closed down -1.70 (-1.80%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed down -20 (-1.51%). Coffee prices moved lower Friday with Sep arabica coffee falling to a 2-3/4 month low on robust supplies. Data from the Green Coffee Association Thursday showed U.S. July green coffee stockpiles rose +3.8% y/y to a 22-month high of 7.099 mln bags. Also undercutting coffee prices was weakness in the Brazilian real which fell -0.05% against the dollar Friday, modestly above Wednesday's 2-3/4 month low. A weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers. Coffee supplies are on the rise and continue to undercut coffee prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Aug 5 raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate by +26% to 3.92 mln bags from a July estimate of a 3.11 mln bag surplus. Also, the Columbian Coffee Growers Federation reported Aug 5 that July coffee production in Columbia, the world's second-biggest arabica producer, jumped +25% y/y to 1.3 mln bags. Strong coffee exports are a bearish factor for coffee prices. Marex Spectron on Monday said global July coffee exports climbed +10% to a record 11.6 mln bags. CeCafe reported last Friday that Brazil July green coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 2.83 mln bags. ICO on Aug 2 reported that global 2018/19 coffee exports during Oct-Jun rose +6.5% y/y to 97.3 mln bags. Recent dry weather in Brazil has been favorable for harvesting and negative for coffee prices after Safras & Mercado reported Aug 8 that Brazil's coffee harvest was 93% completed as of Aug 6, ahead of last year's 88% level and well ahead of the 5-year average of 84%. Robusta coffee has support from Maxar's forecast on Wednesday for dry conditions in Vietnam over the next week, which may curb robusta coffee yields. Also, Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said last Wednesday that the Central Highlands, Vietnam's coffee-growing region, will receive 20%-40% less rain than average this month. In a bearish factor for robusta coffee, Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs on July 28 reported that Vietnam July coffee exports rose +24.2% y/y to 165,000 MT, although cumulative Jan-Jul coffee exports fell by -7.6% y/y to 1.084 MMT. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta beans. A potential bullish factor for robusta coffee is an extreme short position by hedge funds. Friday's weekly COT data showed that hedge funds boosted their net short positions by +1,605 contracts in the week ending Aug 13 to a record 45,419 contracts, the most since data began in 2011, which may fuel a short-covering rally. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: World coffee production (Oct/Sep) in 2018/19 will climb +1.5% y/y to a record 167.747 mln bags with global consumption +2.0% y/y to 164.636 mln bags (ICO). The world coffee surplus in 2018/19 will fall to 3.11 mln bags from the mildly larger 2017/18 surplus of 3.836 mln bags (ICO). USDA projects global 2018/19 coffee production will climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks will increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Coffee C Arabica
Contract Size
37,500 pounds (approximately 250 bags)
Tick Size
0.05 cents per pound ($18.75 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:15a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$375
Margin/Maintenance
$3,300/3,000
First Notice Date
08/22/19 (4 days)
Expiration Date
09/18/19 (31 days)

Seasonal Chart

Coffee Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 13, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
143,174 (-8,961)
126,431 (-16,313)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
53,528 (-3,961)
78,583 (+4,049)
Producers - Long / Short
92,107 (+1,759)
109,594 (-5,668)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
36,964 (-335)
2,734 (-260)
Managed Money - Long / Short
30,527 (-1,595)
72,244 (+4,358)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
23,001 (-2,366)
6,339 (-309)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
92.60 +0.27%
on 08/16/19
109.90 -15.51%
on 07/19/19
-12.70 (-12.03%)
since 07/16/19
3-Month
90.80 +2.26%
on 05/17/19
115.65 -19.71%
on 07/05/19
-1.05 (-1.12%)
since 05/16/19
52-Week
90.05 +3.11%
on 05/07/19
136.30 -31.88%
on 10/19/18
-22.80 (-19.71%)
since 08/16/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Good. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 95.95
1st Resistance Point 94.40
Last Price 92.85s
1st Support Level 91.95
2nd Support Level 91.05

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52-Week High 136.30
Fibonacci 61.8% 118.63
Fibonacci 50% 113.18
Fibonacci 38.2% 107.72
Last Price 92.85s
52-Week Low 90.05

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