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Coffee Sep '19 (KCU19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Arabica Coffee Prices Fall on Fast Harvesting and Absence of Frost Risks

Sep arabica coffee (KCU19) on Tuesday closed sharply lower by -2.80 (-2.66%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed down -24 (-1.72%). Arabica coffee prices were undercut on Tuesday by the absence of frost risks in the current weather forecasts for Brazilian coffee-growing areas. July is the peak month for frost risk. Also, rainfall in the Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest coffee growing area, measured only 1.1 mm in the past week or 29% of the historical average, according to a report Monday by Somar Meteorologia. The dry weather in Brazil is allowing the quick harvesting of Brazil's coffee crop. Cooxupe on Tuesday reported that Brazil's coffee harvest was 75% completed as of July 19, well ahead of last year's comparable 56% level. Coffee prices are seeing support from tighter ICE-monitored coffee inventories, which dropped to a new 10-month low of 2,362,865 bags on Monday and remained at that level on Tuesday. A positive for robusta coffee is smaller supply from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta beans, after Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs on July 11 reported that Vietnam June coffee exports fell -8.6% y/y to 142,448 MT and for the first half of 2019 fell by -11.5% y/y to 919,038 MT. A negative for robusta coffee was last Tuesday's estimate from researcher Cepea for Brazil's robusta harvest this year to approach 15 mln bags, higher than Conab's estimate of 13.9 mln bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Coffee C Arabica
Contract Size
37,500 pounds (approximately 250 bags)
Tick Size
0.05 cents per pound ($18.75 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:15a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$375
Margin/Maintenance
$3,300/3,000
First Notice Date
08/22/19 (29 days)
Expiration Date
09/18/19 (56 days)

Seasonal Chart

Coffee Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jul 16, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
139,159 (+4,829)
149,159 (+2,678)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
57,679 (-847)
55,066 (+1,928)
Producers - Long / Short
85,130 (+1,552)
129,848 (+917)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
36,680 (+995)
1,962 (-521)
Managed Money - Long / Short
36,649 (-3,107)
48,177 (+1,671)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
21,030 (+2,260)
6,889 (+257)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
99.60 +2.71%
on 06/24/19
115.65 -11.54%
on 07/05/19
+1.65 (+1.64%)
since 06/21/19
3-Month
90.05 +13.60%
on 05/07/19
115.65 -11.54%
on 07/05/19
+6.60 (+6.90%)
since 04/23/19
52-Week
90.05 +13.60%
on 05/07/19
136.30 -24.94%
on 10/19/18
-23.55 (-18.71%)
since 07/23/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 106.80
1st Resistance Point 104.55
Last Price 102.50
1st Support Level 101.10
2nd Support Level 99.90

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52-Week High 136.30
Fibonacci 61.8% 118.63
Fibonacci 50% 113.18
Fibonacci 38.2% 107.72
Last Price 102.50
52-Week Low 90.05

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InsideFutures Commentary

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