Stocks Muted Before the Open as Investors Digest Nvidia Earnings, U.S.-Iran Talks in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.05%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.09% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors digest earnings from AI bellwether Nvidia, while nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran have begun.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose about +0.6% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted stronger-than-expected Q4 results and provided Q1 revenue guidance that smashed Wall Street expectations. However, investors delivered a muted response to the chip giant’s results as doubts lingered over whether strong AI sales can be sustained.

Investor attention is now squarely on a third round of high-stakes nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva. The semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that the two sides are holding negotiations through mediator Oman at its embassy in Geneva. U.S. President Donald Trump had set a March 1-6 deadline for Tehran to reach an agreement and has threatened military strikes if it does not comply.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. Axon Enterprise (AXON) jumped over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the maker of Taser stun guns reported upbeat Q4 results and provided strong FY26 revenue growth guidance. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rallied after Bitcoin climbed more than +7%, with Coinbase Global (COIN) surging over +13% and Strategy (MSTR) gaining more than +8%. In addition, software stocks advanced, with Thomson Reuters (TRI) climbing over +10% and Intuit (INTU) rising more than +6%. On the bearish side, GoDaddy (GDDY) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the domain registrar and web hosting company issued below-consensus FY26 revenue guidance.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Wednesday repeated his concerns about inflation but stopped short of outlining how monetary policy should respond. “I think we have work to do on the inflation side of things,” Schmid said. “I think we’re in a pretty good place for employment,” he added. Also, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he believes the current U.S. policy rate setting appropriately balances prevailing economic risks.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.0% probability of no rate change and a 2.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.

In tariff news, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that President Trump will sign a directive in the coming days raising his global tariff to 15% “where appropriate” and is seeking “continuity” with countries that have reached trade deals.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 217K, compared to last week’s number of 206K.

Also, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is set to testify today before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs at a hearing titled “Update from the Prudential Regulators.”

On the earnings front, high-profile companies such as Intuit (INTU), Monster Beverage (MNST), Dell Technologies (DELL), Vistra (VST), and CoreWeave (CRWV) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.047%, down -0.05%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.30% this morning, hitting a new record high as investors cheered a slew of positive corporate earnings reports. Utility and industrial stocks outperformed on Thursday. Defense stocks also advanced, led by a more than +18% jump in Indra Sistemas Sa (IDR.E.DX) after the company posted upbeat 2025 results. In addition, technology stocks rose following strong results and guidance from AI bellwether Nvidia. The European Commission reported on Thursday that business confidence in the Eurozone weakened in February amid renewed uncertainties over Europe’s political and economic ties with the U.S. Separately, data from the European Central Bank showed that lending to Eurozone businesses slowed in January, while credit to households remained steady. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the Eurozone economy expanded more quickly last year than the central bank had anticipated, and that growth would be supported in 2026 by stronger household demand as well as increased investment. However, Lagarde said exporters will continue to face headwinds and uncertainty, partly due to shifting policy in the U.S. Investor focus now turns to nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva. In other corporate news, Puma SE (PUM.D.DX) climbed over +4% after reporting a narrower-than-expected annual loss. Also, Schneider Electric SE (SU.FP) rose more than +4% after the company reported better-than-expected core earnings. At the same time, Syensqo (SYENS.BB) cratered over -24% after the Belgian chemicals group posted weaker-than-expected Q4 core earnings.

Eurozone’s Business and Consumer Survey and Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence data were released today.

Eurozone’s February Business and Consumer Survey stood at 98.3, weaker than expectations of 99.8.

Eurozone’s February Consumer Confidence came in at -12.2, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.01%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.29%. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just below the flatline today as investors cautiously awaited next week’s annual parliamentary meeting. Property stocks led the declines on Thursday, wiping out all of yesterday’s gains after Shanghai further eased homebuying restrictions. Liquor and energy stocks also slid. Limiting losses, AI-related stocks climbed. Also, lithium stocks rose following reports that Zimbabwe had banned the export of lithium concentrate materials. Meanwhile, UBS Securities Asia said on Thursday that Chinese stocks could climb another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into stronger earnings. Analysts said more Chinese companies are looking to raise prices this year due to higher input costs, while excess capacity is beginning to show signs of improvement. In the case of rising prices, “the potential share price reaction is weighed towards the upside given low expectations around reflation and low positioning of inflation-related stocks,” according to strategists led by James Wang. Investors are looking ahead to the upcoming sessions of the National People’s Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference for fresh policy signals and guidance. State media reported in late December that the closely watched annual parliamentary session is set to begin on March 5th. Julius Baer’s Sophie Altermatt said China is likely to set a lower economic growth target for 2026 as it transitions from high-speed to high-quality growth, and she expects Beijing to announce a goal of 4.5%-5.0%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a new record high today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Software stocks led the gains on Thursday as concerns about AI disruption subsided. Financial and energy stocks also advanced. At the same time, chip stocks retreated as investors digested Nvidia’s quarterly results. Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities, said, “Since it was widely expected that NVIDIA would post strong results, and it did, this has prompted some profit-taking for the moment.” The benchmark index initially climbed more than +1% to break above the 59,000 level for the first time, but gave up most of those gains following hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. The Yomiuri newspaper reported on Thursday that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will closely examine data at its March and April meetings when deciding whether to raise interest rates, keeping the door open for a near-term hike. Also, BOJ board member Hajime Takata, the most hawkish voice on the panel, reiterated calls for additional rate hikes. “I believe the bank should make a further gear shift, and engage in communication that assumes that the price stability target is almost achieved,” Takata said. Meanwhile, the yen and shorter-dated domestic government bond yields rose on Thursday after comments from BOJ officials fueled expectations of an early interest rate hike. On the economic front, data showed that Japan’s December leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised higher. Investors are awaiting a slew of Japan’s economic data due on Friday, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +16.07% to 31.21.

The Japanese December Leading Index came in at 111.0, stronger than expectations of 110.2.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) rose about +0.6% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted stronger-than-expected Q4 results and provided Q1 revenue guidance that smashed Wall Street expectations.

IonQ (IONQ) surged more than +16% in pre-market trading after the quantum-computing company reported much stronger-than-expected Q4 revenue and issued strong FY26 revenue guidance.

U.S. Bancorp (USB) gained about +1% in pre-market trading after Truist upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $66.

Salesforce (CRM) slid over -3% in pre-market trading after the software maker issued tepid full-year revenue guidance that failed to reassure investors concerned about the threat posed by AI agents.

The Trade Desk (TTD) plunged more than -16% in pre-market trading after the advertising technology company provided below-consensus Q1 revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - February 26th

Intuit (INTU), Monster Beverage (MNST), Dell Technologies (DELL), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Sempra (SRE), Vistra (VST), CoreWeave (CRWV), Rocket Companies (RKT), Autodesk (ADSK), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Rocket Lab (RKLB), EMCOR Group (EME), Coupang (CPNG), Block (XYZ), Natera (NTRA), Qnity Electronics (Q), Zscaler (ZS), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Formula One Group (FWONA), MasTec (MTZ), Formula One Group (FWONK), SBA Communications (SBAC), NetApp (NTAP), Viatris (VTRS), Talen Energy (TLN), Hormel Foods (HRL), TopBuild (BLD), Celsius Holdings (CELH), Solventum (SOLV), Donaldson Company (DCI), The AES Corporation (AES), The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM), MP Materials (MP), Bentley Systems (BSY), American Healthcare REIT (AHR), Masimo (MASI), CubeSmart (CUBE), Installed Building Products (IBP), The Middleby Corporation (MIDD), TeraWulf (WULF), Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR), Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Nexstar Media Group (NXST), Primo Brands (PRMB), Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM), Arcosa (ACA), Loar Holdings (LOAR), Elastic (ESTC), OneStream (OS), Acushnet Holdings (GOLF), Energy Fuels (UUUU), Compass (COMP), The Brink's Company (BCO), Main Street Capital (MAIN), KBR, Inc. (KBR), Caris Life Sciences (CAI), Duolingo (DUOL), Millrose Properties (MRP), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Lantheus Holdings (LNTH), Teleflex (TFX), FTI Consulting (FCN), Nelnet (NNI), Sunrun (RUN), Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX), Tutor Perini (TPC), ACM Research (ACMR), TG Therapeutics (TGTX), National Health Investors (NHI), Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV), ACI Worldwide (ACIW), Frontdoor (FTDR), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), NuScale Power (SMR), Vistance Networks (VISN), Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), Hagerty (HGTY), Assured Guaranty (AGO), Shake Shack (SHAK), Tidewater (TDW), Perimeter Solutions (PRM), Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND), Eos Energy Enterprises (EOSE), SoundHound AI (SOUN), International Seaways (INSW), nLIGHT (LASR), MARA Holdings (MARA), Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX), NCR Atleos (NATL), Ambarella (AMBA), Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON), Privia Health Group (PRVA), Warby Parker (WRBY), Wave Life Sciences (WVE), DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY), The Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN), Enerflex (EFXT), AvePoint (AVPT), Grindr (GRND), Walker & Dunlop (WD), DiamondRock Hospitality Company (DRH), Flowco Holdings (FLOC), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR).