Stocks Set for Muted Open After Trump’s Tariff Threats, Big Tech Earnings and Fed Meeting in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.05%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.14% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as President Trump’s tariff threats against Canada and the looming risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown curbed risk appetite at the start of a busy week.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened Canada with 100% tariffs on all its exports to the U.S. if it strikes a trade deal with China. Trump said in a social media post that if Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney “thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.” He added, “China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life.”

Meanwhile, worries about a partial U.S. government shutdown intensified over the weekend after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer pledged to block a sweeping spending package unless Republicans remove funding for the Department of Homeland Security. Schumer’s announcement followed an incident in which a Border Patrol agent shot and killed an American intensive care unit nurse in Minnesota during protests over the state’s immigration crackdown. Without Senate approval of the funding package by Friday, the federal government will enter a partial shutdown this weekend.

This week, market participants look ahead to earnings reports from major tech names, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and a slew of U.S. economic data.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks climbed, with Microsoft (MSFT) rising over +3% and Amazon.com (AMZN) gaining more than +2%. Also, gold mining stocks advanced after gold prices climbed to a record high, with Newmont Mining (NEM) and Freeport-McMoran (FCX) rising over +2%. In addition, Fortinet (FTNT) surged more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $100. On the bearish side, Intel (INTC) tumbled over -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker issued disappointing Q1 guidance.

“Stocks are consolidating. The laggards are catching up, and the winners are giving back a little,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates. 

Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. January consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a 5-month high of 56.4, stronger than expectations of no change at 54.0. Also, the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in January, in line with expectations. At the same time, the U.S. January S&P Global services PMI came in at 52.5, unchanged from the prior month and below expectations of 52.9.

Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season hits full throttle, and investors await fresh reports from major companies this week, including Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), KLA Corp. (KLAC), International Business Machines (IBM), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX Corporation (RTX), Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Caterpillar (CAT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and American Express (AXP). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.

Market participants will also keep a close eye on the Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference. The central bank is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. Focus will center on the number of dissenting votes and the Fed’s accompanying comments as investors assess the likely timing and pace of further rate cuts. Mr. Powell is likely to signal that policy is well-positioned for now. “We expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize that future rate moves will depend on how the economic data evolve,” HSBC economists said in a note. U.S. rate futures currently fully price in a 25-basis-point rate cut in July, with a meaningful chance of another reduction by year-end.

In addition, market watchers will monitor a fresh batch of U.S. economic data. A delayed report on December wholesale inflation will be the main highlight this week. Other noteworthy data releases include the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Wholesale Inventories, and the Chicago PMI.

On Friday, the Fed’s blackout period ends, with Fed officials Bowman and Musalem set to deliver remarks.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect November Durable Goods Orders to climb +3.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to rise +0.3% m/m, compared to the prior numbers of -2.2% m/m and +0.2% m/m, respectively.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.205%, down -0.83%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.19% this morning, kicking off a busy week on a muted note. Travel and defense stocks underperformed on Monday. At the same time, mining and bank stocks advanced. A survey released on Monday showed that German business morale was unchanged from the previous month in January, with sentiment failing to gain traction despite the rollout of government stimulus. Besides U.S. big tech earnings and the Fed’s policy decision, investors will keep an eye on a slate of regional economic data this week, with particular focus on preliminary Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP and preliminary January inflation readings from Spain and Germany. Also, several European Central Bank officials are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, Sweden’s Riksbank will announce its monetary policy decision this week, with the central bank widely expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. In corporate news, Danone (BN.FP) slid over -4% after the food group said it would recall batches of baby formula produced in Ireland and shipped to several European Union countries and the U.K.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was released today.

The German January Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 87.6, weaker than expectations of 88.3.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.09%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.79%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today. Semiconductor stocks were among the biggest losers on Monday. AVIC Securities analysts said they expect AI and technology to remain the dominant growth theme in 2026, but warned that rising capital expenditure could weigh on cash flows and that valuations may be approaching bubble territory. Limiting losses, non-ferrous metal and financial stocks climbed. Meanwhile, a basket of exchange-traded funds held by China’s so-called national team recorded sizable outflows last week, sending the clearest signal yet that Beijing is actively curbing the rally. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that sovereign wealth fund Central Huijin Investment sold $67.5 billion across 14 ETFs over six sessions through last Thursday. The ETF outflows have coincided with regulators’ moves to tighten margin financing rules, reflecting unease over sharp gains in sectors such as rockets and AI applications, where profitability remains uncertain. Also, China’s securities watchdog on Friday fined an individual investor nearly 1 billion yuan ($143.77 million) for share manipulation, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges this month took action against hundreds of abnormal trading practices. In corporate news, Modern Dental jumped more than +16% in Hong Kong after a regulatory filing showed that asset manager Hillhouse Investment had taken a stake in the company. Investors are looking ahead to China’s industrial profit data for December, scheduled for release on Tuesday, which could provide fresh evidence of mounting pressures on manufacturers. Investor focus this week is also on China’s PMI data for January.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today due to pressure on equities from a rallying yen. Shares of exporters such as automakers and electronics manufacturers led the declines on Monday. A stronger yen reduces the value of overseas revenue for Japan’s many heavyweight exporters. The yen rebounded from its recent slide on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, acting at the Treasury Department’s direction, contacted potential trading counterparties for so-called rate checks. Rate checks are requests for pricing information and can precede direct intervention in currency markets. The move fueled speculation that the U.S. could help Japan intervene in the currency market to support the yen. The Japanese currency extended its gains on Monday following a warning from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. “It is not for me as a prime minister to comment on matters that should be determined by the market, but we will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements,” Takaichi said on Sunday. Top Japanese officials said on Monday they have been in close coordination with their counterparts in Washington on foreign exchange. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell on Monday as the yen’s appreciation alleviated concerns over higher import costs and tempered expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. On the economic front, data from the Cabinet Office released on Monday showed that Japan’s November leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised lower. Investor attention this week is on a raft of Japan’s economic data, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, retail sales, and employment figures. Also, the BOJ will release this week the minutes of its December meeting, when it raised interest rates to 0.75%. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +9.19% to 34.57.

The Japanese November Leading Index came in at 109.9, weaker than expectations of 110.5.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC) are down more than -1%.

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) plunged over -19% in pre-market trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that Merck is no longer in talks to acquire the company.

USA Rare Earth (USAR) soared over +36% in pre-market trading after multiple reports said the Trump administration was planning to invest $1.6 billion in the company and would take a 10% stake.

Gold mining stocks climbed in pre-market trading after gold prices topped $5,000 an ounce for the first time, with Newmont Mining (NEM) and Freeport-McMoran (FCX) rising more than +4%.

Netflix (NFLX) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after Phillip Securities upgraded the stock to Accumulate from Sell with a price target of $100.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - January 26th

Nucor (NUE), Brown&Brown (BRO), Steel Dynamics (STLD), WR Berkley (WRB), Graco (GGG), AGNC Invest (AGNC), Crane (CR), Alexandria RE (ARE), Sanmina (SANM), Western Alliance (WAL), WSFS (WSFS), Agilysys (AGYS), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), First Merchants (FRME), Dynex Capital (DX), Northwest Bancshares (NWBI), Triumph Bancorp (TFIN), Lakeland Financial (LKFN), Firstsun Capital Bancorp (FSUN), Hbt Fin (HBT), Five Star Bancorp (FSBC), South Plains Financial (SPFI), Home Bancorp (HBCP), Bank of Marin (BMRC), First Bank (FRBA), RBB Bancorp (RBB), Eagle Financial Services (EFSI).