Stocks Steady Before the Open as Investors Await U.S.-Iran Updates; Earnings and Economic Data on Tap

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.03%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are down -0.01% this morning as investors await the outcome of diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the Iran war.

The U.S. is awaiting Iran’s response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Washington has conveyed a one-page memorandum to the Islamic Republic that would gradually reopen the waterway and remove the American blockade on Iranian ports. Iran is expected to deliver its response through Pakistan in the coming days, the report said. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike on Lebanon’s capital on Wednesday underscored how tensions remain high.

The price of WTI crude fell over -2% on Thursday after Saudi news outlet Al Arabiya reported that negotiations to gradually reopen the Strait are underway and that a breakthrough could come in the coming hours. The 10-year T-note yield fell one basis point to 4.34% as inflation expectations eased.

Market participants are also awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data and corporate earnings reports, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) jumped over +24% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the AI server maker reported better-than-expected FQ3 adjusted EPS and provided solid FQ4 guidance. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged more than +18% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q1 results and delivered a blockbuster Q2 sales forecast. In addition, DaVita (DVA) popped over +23% after the kidney dialysis company reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, CDW Corp. (CDW) cratered more than -20% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q1 adjusted EPS.

The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 109K in April, slightly weaker than expectations of 118K.

“The labor market has been on a solid but precarious footing for some time, not exactly growing but also not significantly deteriorating,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that there is considerable uncertainty over the future path of the economy and monetary policy, but he sees risks tilting more toward inflation than toward employment. “Inflation is running meaningfully above our target of 2%,” Musalem said. Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against reflexively cutting interest rates in response to stronger productivity growth, noting that such a trend can sometimes fuel inflation.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.2% probability of no rate change and a 5.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s June meeting.

First-quarter corporate earnings season continues, with notable companies such as McDonald’s (MCD), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Cloudflare (NET), Airbnb (ABNB), Monster Beverage (MNST), and CoreWeave (CRWV) slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 205K, compared to last week’s number of 189K.

U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity preliminary data will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast Q1 Unit Labor Costs to rise +2.6% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to rise +0.7% q/q, compared to the fourth-quarter numbers of +4.4% q/q and +1.8% q/q, respectively.

The U.S. Construction Spending report for March will come in today. Notably, the release will also incorporate the February figures. Economists expect construction spending to rise +0.3% m/m in March.

The Fed’s Consumer Credit report will be released today as well. Economists project the U.S. Consumer Credit to be $12.5 billion in March, compared to the previous figure of $9.5 billion.

In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and New York Fed President John Williams throughout the day.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.34%, down -0.28%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.05% this morning as investors await updates on a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement and digest a wave of corporate earnings reports. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the Iran war has “a very good chance of ending” and that it’s “possible” it could end before his trip to Beijing next week, according to an interview with PBS News Hour. Luxury, travel, and automobile stocks led the gains on Thursday. At the same time, food and beverage stocks slumped, weighed down by a more than -12% plunge in Campari (CPR.M.DX) after the spirits group reported weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue. Utility stocks also sank. Data from Eurostat released on Thursday showed that Eurozone monthly retail sales declined in March, with weakening consumer sentiment tied to the Middle East conflict suggesting demand could soften further in the months ahead. Separately, data showed that Germany’s monthly factory orders jumped in March, signaling possible front-loading of orders to manage rising energy prices and supply disruptions that followed the start of the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Norway’s central bank unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday to curb inflation pressures fueled by robust wage growth and high energy costs. “Inflation is too high and has run above target for several years,” said Norges Governor Ida Wolden Bache in a statement. Sweden’s central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected, but said it remains vigilant and is ready to act swiftly if the Middle East conflict pushes inflation higher or weighs on economic growth. European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the ECB cannot commit to raising its key rate at its June meeting, and that its decisions will instead be guided by evidence of shifts in the economy. In other corporate news, Shell (SHEL.LN) fell over -2% after the oil major reported solid Q1 profit but cautioned about reduced gas production due to the Middle East conflict and launched a smaller buyback than in prior quarters. At the same time, Zealand Pharma (ZEAL.C.DX) surged more than +16% after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results.

Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone’s Retail Sales data were released today.

The German March Factory Orders rose +5.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m.

Eurozone’s March Retail Sales fell -0.1% m/m and rose +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.48%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +5.58%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today amid optimism that the U.S. and Iran were close to reaching a deal to end their conflict. 5G communication stocks outperformed on Thursday. Liquor stocks also advanced. Limiting gains, energy stocks sank as oil prices dropped for a third straight day. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and Iran are working with mediators on a framework to resume negotiations that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said, “Signs continue to point to limited appetite for further escalation in the Middle East.” Meanwhile, China’s tourism sector recorded an increase in trips during the Labor Day holidays, although official data released the day after the five-day break did not include spending figures that typically provide a fuller picture of consumption over the period. In other news, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Washington and Beijing are considering the launch of formal talks on AI. Market watchers are closely monitoring U.S.-China developments as U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week during his first visit to China in eight years. In corporate news, BeOne Medicines gained over +3% after the drugmaker reported a jump in its Q1 earnings.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today as markets reopened after a holiday break, with investors playing catch-up to a global equities rally fueled by robust technology earnings and signs of a potential peace agreement in the Middle East. Oil prices held their previous session’s losses on speculation that a U.S.-Iran agreement would help restore oil shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Takashi Ito, senior strategist at Nomura Securities, said, “Lower oil prices are significant for companies, as even a modest easing of inflation can provide meaningful relief.” Technology stocks led the gains on Thursday, with SoftBank Group jumping over +18% on renewed confidence in the AI trade. Mining, industrial, and financial stocks also climbed. The benchmark index closed above the 62,000 mark for the first time. It also posted its largest daily percentage gain since April 2025. Meanwhile, minutes of the Bank of Japan’s March meeting released on Thursday showed that many board members believed interest rates may need to be raised if the energy shock driven by the Iran war persists and triggers concerns about second-round effects on broader inflation. One member said the BOJ should raise rates “without long intervals,” while another stated the central bank would need to tighten “without hesitation” if the economy showed no signs of weakening from the conflict. Elsewhere, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Thursday that the country faces no limits on how frequently it can intervene in currency markets and remains in daily contact with U.S. authorities, underscoring Tokyo’s readiness to step in to support the yen. In corporate news, TOTO Ltd. rose over +4% as investors continued to pour into the stock, reassessing the toilet maker as a stealth AI play given its critical role in the semiconductor supply chain. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -5.40% to 37.64.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Fortinet (FTNT) surged more than +15% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity vendor posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

DoorDash (DASH) climbed about +10% in pre-market trading after the food-delivery app reported better-than-expected Q1 EPS.

AppLovin (APP) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after the mobile advertising platform reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and issued above-consensus Q2 revenue guidance.

Arm Holdings (ARM) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after CEO Rene Haas cautioned about weakness in the smartphone industry, denting a vital source of the company’s revenue.

Fastly (FSLY) plummeted more than -21% in pre-market trading despite the cloud computing company posting strong Q1 results and raising its full-year guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - May 7th

McDonald’s (MCD), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), McKesson (MCK), Cloudflare (NET), Airbnb (ABNB), Monster Beverage (MNST), CoreWeave (CRWV), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Republic Services (RSG), Ubiquiti (UI), Sempra (SRE), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Vistra (VST), Targa Resources (TRGP), Coinbase Global (COIN), Datadog (DDOG), Zoetis (ZTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Rocket Companies (RKT), Block (XYZ), Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), Consolidated Edison (ED), Kenvue (KVUE), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP), Natera (NTRA), Insmed (INSM), Tapestry (TPR), Expedia Group (EXPE), Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI), Formula One Group (FWONA), Formula One Group (FWONK), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), US Foods Holding (USFD), Corpay (CPAY), Evergy (EVRG), Viatris (VTRS), The Carlyle Group (CG), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Toast (TOST), Warner Music Group (WMG), News Corporation (NWS), News Corporation (NWSA), Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR), Reinsurance Group of America (RGA), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO), MP Materials (MP), Globus Medical (GMED), HubSpot (HUBS), DraftKings (DKNG), Guardant Health (GH), Gen Digital (GEN), Unity Software (U), The Trade Desk (TTD), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR), Essential Utilities (WTRG), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Bentley Systems (BSY), Arrow Electronics (ARW), American Healthcare REIT (AHR), Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), CareTrust REIT (CTRE), StandardAero (SARO), ESCO Technologies (ESE), Celsius Holdings (CELH), Vaxcyte (PCVX), Installed Building Products (IBP), Lincoln National (LNC), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Primo Brands (PRMB), GATX Corporation (GATX), The Middleby Corporation (MIDD), JFrog (FROG), Clearway Energy (CWEN), ESAB Corporation (ESAB), USA Rare Earth (USAR), Century Aluminum Company (CENX), Nexstar Media Group (NXST), Dropbox (DBX), Loar Holdings (LOAR), Genpact (G), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL), Scholar Rock Holding (SRRK), Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE), OUTFRONT Media (OUT), Paylocity Holding (PCTY), HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI), Lantheus Holdings (LNTH), PTC Therapeutics (PTCT), Lyft, Inc. (LYFT), Teleflex (TFX), Diodes (DIOD), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), BGC Group (BGC), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Main Street Capital (MAIN), Nelnet (NNI), Vontier (VNT), Axcelis Technologies (ACLS), Post Holdings (POST), Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN), Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND), MDU Resources Group (MDU), NuScale Power (SMR), Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX), ACI Worldwide (ACIW), Power Integrations (POWI), Griffon (GFF), International Seaways (INSW), WillScot Holdings (WSC), Synaptics (SYNA), Trex Company (TREX), Shake Shack (SHAK), Kontoor Brands (KTB), SoundHound AI (SOUN), RingCentral (RNG).