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Natural Gas Sep '19 (NGU19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Closes Lower on Forecasts for Cooler U.S. Temps in Late-August

Sep Nymex natural gas (NGU19) on Friday closed down by -0.032 (-1.43%). Nat-gas prices moved lower Friday on forecasts for above-normal temperatures in the U.S. to retreat. Maxar on Friday forecast that hot temperatures will exit the central U.S. and Mideast during Aug 21-25. Until then, Maxar is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the lower 48 U.S. states. Nat-gas prices rallied to a 2-week high Thursday on a smaller-than-expected build in nat-gas supplies along with above-normal U.S. temperatures. The EIA reported Thursday that U.S. nat-gas inventories rose 49 bcf, below expectations of 58 bcf and right on the 5-year average. High U.S. nat-gas production is negative for nat-gas prices with lower-48 nat-gas production Friday up +8.3% y/y at 90.072 bcf/d. Higher U.S. nat-gas output has caused U.S. nat-gas inventories to rise sharply in recent months to the current level of +14.8% y/y from -22.3% y/y in March. Thursday's EIA report pushed nat-gas inventories up to a 7-3/4 month high of 2,738 bcf and up +14.8% y/y, although inventories are still -3.9% below the 5-year average. Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) solid demand from Mexico for U.S. nat-gas, (2) strong global natural gas demand due to firm global economic growth and the need to substitute for coal to reduce global CO2 emissions, and (3) significant U.S. LNG nat-gas export potential as more LNG ports are built in the U.S. and around the world. Bearish factors include (1) China's hike in its import tariff to 25% from 10% on U.S. LNG imports as of June 1, which effectively eliminated any Chinese buying of U.S. nat-gas, (2) high U.S. nat gas inventories that are up +14.8% y/y, and (3) near-record U.S. natural gas production.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,815/1,650
First Notice Date
08/29/19 (11 days)
Expiration Date
08/28/19 (10 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 13, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
665,736 (-17,868)
493,928 (-21,809)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
205,912 (-7,644)
418,466 (+4,829)
Producers - Long / Short
237,411 (-25,705)
220,813 (-39,877)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
246,541 (-1,641)
91,331 (+8,590)
Managed Money - Long / Short
131,233 (-4,045)
367,343 (+10,502)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
74,679 (-3,599)
51,123 (-5,673)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.029 +8.43%
on 08/05/19
2.333 -5.70%
on 08/01/19
-0.086 (-3.76%)
since 07/16/19
3-Month
2.029 +8.43%
on 08/05/19
2.741 -19.74%
on 05/20/19
-0.484 (-18.03%)
since 05/16/19
52-Week
2.029 +8.43%
on 08/05/19
2.991 -26.45%
on 03/19/19
-0.506 (-18.70%)
since 08/16/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.252
1st Resistance Point 2.226
Last Price 2.200s
1st Support Level 2.172
2nd Support Level 2.144

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52-Week High 2.991
Fibonacci 61.8% 2.624
Fibonacci 50% 2.510
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.396
Last Price 2.200s
52-Week Low 2.029

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