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Natural Gas Sep '19 (NGU19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Fall to a 1-1/2 Week Low on Outlook for Extreme Heat to Fade

Aug Nymex natural gas (NGQ19) on Wednesday closed down -0.002 (-0.09%). Nat-gas prices had opened higher Wednesday after the National Weather Service projected a "dangerous and widespread" heat wave for two-thirds of the U.S. over the next few days that should drive demand for nat-gas to fuel power plants to supply air-conditioning. However, nat-gas gave up its gains and fell to a 1-1/2 week low on the outlook for the excessive heat to fade starting July 26, which should curb nat-gas demand for air-conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said Monday that temperatures will be above normal across most of the U.S. over the next 10 days but will fall back to normal during July 25-29. Another bearish factor is the recent string of above-average builds in weekly nat-gas inventories. This Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories report is expected to increase by 71 bcf, higher than the 5-year average of 63 bcf and the sixteenth straight week that U.S. nat-gas supplies would increase by more than the 5-year average. Nat-gas prices are also being undercut by robust U.S. nat-gas output as Wednesday’s data showed that U.S. lower 48-state nat-gas production rose +7.1% y/y to 83.147 bcf. Last Thursday's weekly EIA inventory data was bearish as U.S. nat-gas inventories rose by 81 bcf the week of July 5, above expectations of 74 bcf and above the 5-year average of 71 bcf. U.S. nat gas inventories have now increased by more than the 5-year average for fifteen consecutive weeks. Last Thursday's EIA data showed that U.S. nat-gas supplies stood at a 5-3/4 month high of 2.471 bcf as of July 5, up +12.2% y/y but -5.4% below the 5-year average.
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