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Coffee Jul '19 (KCN19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Fall to 3-Week Low on Favorable Brazil Harvest Weather

September arabica coffee (KCU19) on Tuesday closed down by -1.65 (-1.68%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed down -14 (-1.01%). Coffee prices fell to 3-week lows Tuesday on the outlook for dry weather in Brazil that should speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest. Brazil forecaster Rural Clima last Friday forecast dryness over the next 15 days in Brazil, which will allow farmers to speed up their coffee harvests and dry the beans. Also, Somar Meteorologia has forecast little rain and warmer temperatures in Brazil's coffee-growing areas through the rest of June. Arabica coffee may see additional weakness on technical selling after Sep arabica coffee closed below its 50-day moving average. In another potentially bearish factor, last Friday's data showed that money managers cut their net short positions in robusta coffee by -1,584 to a 4-month low of 24,262 contracts in the week ended June 11, which reduces the chances for a short squeeze. On the positive side was the USDA's bi-annual report last Friday where the USDA projects global 2019/20 coffee production will fall -3.1% to 169.13 mln bags as Brazil's Arabica trees enter the off-year of the biennial production cycle. The USDA also projects that global 2019/20 coffee consumption will climb +2.5% to a record 167.92 mln bags, which will reduce global 2019/20 coffee ending stocks by -7.7% y/y to 33.545 mln bags. Coffee supplies are abundant after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on June 3 that global 2018/19 coffee exports during Oct-Apr rose by +4.4% y/y to 74 mln bags. However, ICO cut its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 3.4 mln bags from a May estimate of 3.7 mln bags. Current coffee supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to an 8-1/2 month low of 2.381 mln bags Monday, down from March's 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Coffee C Arabica
Contract Size
37,500 pounds (approximately 250 bags)
Tick Size
0.05 cents per pound ($18.75 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:15a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$375
Margin/Maintenance
$3,300/3,000
First Notice Date
06/28/19 (10 days)
Expiration Date
07/19/19 (31 days)

Seasonal Chart

Coffee Jul '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jul Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
158,633 (-1,074)
146,704 (-177)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
59,512 (-9,723)
81,008 (-9,470)
Producers - Long / Short
107,125 (+3,798)
128,899 (+4,948)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
38,638 (-1,003)
4,935 (-1,256)
Managed Money - Long / Short
39,468 (-2,377)
72,058 (-9,511)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
20,044 (-7,346)
8,950 (+41)
Get Realtime - Quotes and Charts for Futures Traders. Learn More >>

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
88.50 +6.55%
on 05/21/19
106.15 -11.16%
on 06/04/19
+5.30 (+5.96%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
87.60 +7.65%
on 05/07/19
106.15 -11.16%
on 06/04/19
-5.25 (-5.27%)
since 03/18/19
52-Week
87.60 +7.65%
on 05/07/19
134.05 -29.65%
on 10/19/18
-33.90 (-26.44%)
since 06/18/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Soft. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 96.77
1st Resistance Point 95.53
Last Price 94.30s
1st Support Level 93.53
2nd Support Level 92.77

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52-Week High 134.05
Fibonacci 61.8% 116.31
Fibonacci 50% 110.82
Fibonacci 38.2% 105.34
Last Price 94.30s
52-Week Low 87.60

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