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Crude Oil WTI Nov '17 (CLX17)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures Market News and Commentary

Energy Complex Slumps on Reports that Saudi Arabia Can Restore Crude Output Faster than Expected

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) this morning is down by -3.83 (-6.09%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) is down by -4.33 (-6.27%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) is down -0.0862 (-4.92%). The energy complex is sharply lower today on a Reuters report that Saudi Arabian oil output will return faster than first thought. Reuters reported today that Saudi Arabia is already close to restoring 70% of its oil production lost in Saturday's drone strike and that it expects to return to full production in the next two to three weeks. Crude prices surged to 3-3/4 month highs on Monday after Saudi Arabia lost about half of its oil production output (i.e., 5 mln bpd of total 9.8 mln bpd production), representing about 5% of total world output, due to a drone attack and fire at its key Abqaiq oil processing facility on Saturday. Tensions remain high due to concern about a possible U.S. military strike against Iran after CBS reported today that the U.S. has identified the exact locations in Iran where more than 20 drones and cruise missiles were launched in Saturday's attack on Saudi oil facilities. Also, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said today that Iran will not negotiate with the U.S. "on any level." Today's global economic data was supportive for economic growth and energy demand after U.S. Aug manufacturing production rose +0.5%, stronger than expectations of +0.2%, and Aug industrial production rose +0.6%, stronger than expectations of +0.2% and the biggest increase in a year. Also, the U.S. Sep NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose +1 to an 11-month high of 68, stronger than expectations of no change at 66. In addition, the German Sep ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index rose +21.6 to -22.5, stronger than expectations of +6.1 to -38.0. Another supportive factor for crude prices is the consensus for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to fall -2.0 million bbl. Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 6 were -0.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +3.2% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -5.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 6 was unchanged at 12.4 million bpd, just below the record high of 12.5 million bpd in the week of Aug 23.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,015/3,650
First Notice Date
10/24/17
Expiration Date
10/20/17 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Nov '17
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 10, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
716,210 (-32,622)
1,140,398 (+9,447)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
527,579 (+18,639)
99,374 (-25,409)
Producers - Long / Short
427,811 (-7,720)
417,361 (+906)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
133,402 (+1,591)
568,040 (+35,034)
Managed Money - Long / Short
262,145 (+19,995)
41,657 (-20,897)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
265,434 (-1,356)
57,717 (-4,512)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
49.10 +4.83%
on 10/06/17
52.86 -2.63%
on 09/28/17
+0.78 (+1.54%)
since 09/20/17
3-Month
45.83 +12.31%
on 07/24/17
52.86 -2.63%
on 09/28/17
+4.13 (+8.72%)
since 07/20/17
52-Week
42.80 +20.26%
on 06/21/17
58.37 -11.82%
on 01/03/17
-2.51 (-4.65%)
since 10/20/16

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Energy Complex Closes Sharply Higher after Attack Shuts Down Half of Saudi Oil Production

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) on Monday closed up by +8.05 (+14.68%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) closed up by +8.80 (+14.61%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) closed up +0.1993 (+12.83%). The energy complex...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 52.33
1st Resistance Point 51.90
Last Price 51.47s
1st Support Level 50.87
2nd Support Level 50.27

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52-Week High 58.37
Fibonacci 61.8% 52.42
Last Price 51.47s
Fibonacci 50% 50.58
Fibonacci 38.2% 48.75
52-Week Low 42.80

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