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Crude Oil WTI Mar '13 (CLH13)

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cmdty Insider - Crude Oil WTI Market Commentary


Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Friday closed unchanged and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$0.46 (+0.69%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +2.04 cents a gallon (+1.31%). A slide in the dollar index Friday to a 1-week low was a positive factor for the energy complex. Also, confidence that OPEC+ will cut production to avert a global oil glut next year led to pre-weekend short covering after this week's rout took crude prices down to a 1-year low. Finally, geopolitical risks are on the rise after the U.S. on Thursday imposed sanctions against 17 Saudi officials over the death of U.S.-based journalist Khashoggi. Dec WTI crude oil prices gave up its gains and settled unchanged Friday after data from Baker Hughes showed active U.S. oil rigs rose by +2 rigs in the week ended Friday to a 3-1/2 year high of 888 rigs. Crude prices are still being undercut by Thursday's weekly EIA report, which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories surged by +10.27 million bbl to an 11-month high and that U.S. crude production in the week of Nov 9 rose +0.9% w/w to a new all-time high of 11.7 million bpd. U.S. crude oil inventories are currently 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, the highest such level since February.Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the reinstatement of full U.S. sanctions on Iran as of Nov 5, although the U.S. gave waivers to 8 countries for up to 1.25 mln bpd of Iranian exports, (2) reduced global oil inventories due to the OPEC+ agreement that began in Jan 2017 to cut production by 1.8 million bpd (1.2 million for OPEC members), and (3) the 50% drop in Venezuelan production seen since 2016. Bearish factors include (1) the OPEC+ move on June 22 to boost production by up to 1 mln bpd to address over-compliance with its production cut agreement, (2) doubts about whether OPEC+ will adopt a large enough production cut agreement for 2019 to offset the expected global oil surplus, and (3) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 11.7 million bpd.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,905/3,550
First Notice Date
02/22/13
Expiration Date
02/20/13 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Mar '13
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
810,757 (+39,118)
1,230,284 (+12,034)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
561,445 (+6,883)
180,247 (+29,468)
Producers - Long / Short
464,623 (+30,171)
467,862 (+28,670)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
160,171 (-805)
576,459 (-26,388)
Managed Money - Long / Short
244,987 (+3,081)
109,306 (+15,569)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
316,458 (+3,802)
70,941 (+13,899)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
93.92 +0.57%
on 02/20/13
98.24 -3.85%
on 01/30/13
-1.58 (-1.65%)
since 01/18/13
3-Month
86.40 +9.33%
on 12/11/12
98.24 -3.85%
on 01/30/13
+6.48 (+7.37%)
since 11/20/12

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The Barchart Opinion rating is a Hold. Short term, the outlook is Falling.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 98.30
1st Resistance Point 96.38
Last Price 94.46s
1st Support Level 93.23
2nd Support Level 92.00

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52-Week High 109.18
Fibonacci 61.8% 98.22
Fibonacci 50% 94.83
Last Price 94.46s
Fibonacci 38.2% 91.44
52-Week Low 80.48

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