I’m old-fashioned when it comes to my stock indexes. I like the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) best.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq-100 ($IUXX) may be more popular, but they’ve become so top-heavy that they’re “go big, or go home.” The Dow Jones is more of an equal opportunity index. We’ve seen stocks like United Healthcare (UNH) go from the largest weighted stock to a distant third in about 18 months. And an industrial – Caterpillar (CAT) – and a financial stock – Goldman Sachs (GS) – vault to the top of the price-weighted Dow this year.
I find that healthier than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100’s lists jam-packed with Magnificent 7 stocks. Those indexes are vulnerable to a sharp change in how the market assesses the AI trade. Monday’s rally aside, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) looks lower to me the rest of this year, or at least for the rest of Q3.
The Dow Jones, on the other hand, is showing signs of busting out beyond its more-than-15% rally that started at the end of March. That better chart setup is in part due to the more balanced attack DIA offers. However, there’s a new factor to consider. Or shall, I say, a new kid on the Dow’s block.
A week ago, effective prior to the market open on Monday, June 29, Alphabet (GOOGL) officially replaced Verizon (VZ) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This rebalance marks a complete exit of traditional telecommunications carriers from the 30-stock index. Because the Dow is a price-weighted benchmark, the swap impacts the index mechanics here.
VZ, trading near $42 at the time of the announcement, accounted for a mere 0.5% of the total index weight. Alphabet, trading near $345, steps in with an immediate index weighting of roughly 4%, making its daily price movements approximately eight times more influential than Verizon’s had become.
More significantly to me, GOOGL’s inclusion now gives DIA five of the Magnificent 7 stocks, as it joins Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Given the clouds forming over the prices of some of those stocks, I’m not talking about an immediate positive impact on DIA necessarily. However, this makes it a good time to remind you that DIA is not the only way to play the Dow Industrials.
The First Trust Dow Jones Industrial Average Equal Weight ETF (EDOW) presents an alternative strategy by breaking completely away from the price-weighted structure. EDOW takes the 30 components of the Dow and weights them equally (roughly 3.3% each), rebalancing the portfolio quarterly.
So here, GOOG’s $345 share price and massive multitrillion-dollar market value are neutralized. It commands the exact same real estate inside the fund as the lowest-priced component. This structure dramatically dilutes the influence of the five tech giants, transforming the index into a cyclical value play that benefits from broad-market market breadth rather than concentrated tech momentum.
And, for those seeking more of a yield tilt on the Dow, the Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (DJD) targets the index through a fundamental screen, weighting the 30 constituents based on their trailing 12-month dividend yield. So, companies with the highest dividend yields get the largest allocation weights, while non-dividend payers receive zero weight.
There are a few Dow 30 stocks that do not pay a dividend. Of note, VZ was the highest yielder in the index. Even when it was in the Dow, DJD yielded less than 2.5%, so it is not exactly a yield hog play.
Google joining the Dow may not be as market-moving as SpaceX (SPCX) joining the Nasdaq-100. However, for those who focus on the Dow’s 30 constituents instead of just the weightings, this is a big event. I encourage you to look at the ETFs above to profit from it in the quarters ahead.
Rob Isbitts is a semi-retired CIO, former fiduciary investment advisor, and Barchart columnist. Check out his other work at ETFYourself.com (featuring the Fresh Charts weekly trading post), and ROAR.PiTrade.com, helping investors to better-manage their own portfolios.
On the date of publication, Rob Isbitts did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.