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Sugar #11 Jul '19 (SBN19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Close Lower as They Follow a Slump in Crude Oil

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Wednesday closed down by -0.19 (-1.61%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed down by -3.50 (-1.07%). A slump in crude oil prices Wednesday undercut sugar prices after crude sank to a 1-week low. Weak crude prices are negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane-crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, this boosting sugar supplies. July NY sugar tumbled to a 7-1/2 month low Tuesday and Aug London sugar dropped to a 9-month low on the prospects for increased exports from India. The India Sugar Mills Association forecast India's sugar stockpiles may reach a record high of 14.7 MMT by Sep 30, and Meir Commodities India Pvt projects India will boost its 2019/20 sugar exports to 6 MMT from 3 MMT exported this year in order to curb its excessive sugar reserves. Robust global sugar output continues to weigh on sugar prices. Conab projects that Brazil 2019/20 sugar production will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT and that Brazil's sugar mills will increase their percentage of cane crushing to produce sugar to 39.1% from 34.9% in 2018/19. Another bearish factor for sugar is weakness in the Brazilian real which tumbled to a fresh 7-1/2 month low against the dollar Monday, which encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. A bullish factor for sugar prices is strong ethanol demand in Brazil. Unica reported Tuesday that Brazil Jan-Apr sales of hydrous ethanol surged +35% y/y to 7 billion liters. Also, on Monday, researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their forecast for a 2019/20 global sugar deficit to -3.0 MMT from a prior forecast of -1.6 MMT, citing increased ethanol production from Brazil's sugar mills at the expense of sugar production.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
07/01/19 (40 days)
Expiration Date
06/28/19 (37 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Jul '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jul Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of May 14, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
528,152 (+21,792)
448,782 (-9,729)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
210,309 (-1,426)
289,159 (+28,661)
Producers - Long / Short
321,887 (+18,237)
392,384 (-15,300)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
168,037 (-2,491)
18,170 (-475)
Managed Money - Long / Short
142,267 (-5,892)
277,799 (+27,527)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
68,042 (+4,466)
11,360 (+1,134)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
11.36 +2.29%
on 05/21/19
12.96 -10.34%
on 04/24/19
-1.15 (-9.01%)
since 04/22/19
3-Month
11.36 +2.29%
on 05/21/19
13.56 -14.31%
on 02/25/19
-1.89 (-13.99%)
since 02/22/19
52-Week
11.10 +4.68%
on 09/27/18
14.26 -18.51%
on 10/24/18
-1.86 (-13.80%)
since 05/22/18

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July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Wednesday closed down by -0.19 (-1.61%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed down by -3.50 (-1.07%). A slump in crude oil prices Wednesday undercut sugar...

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Sugar Prices Remain Bearish

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 12.09
1st Resistance Point 11.85
Last Price 11.62s
1st Support Level 11.48
2nd Support Level 11.35

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52-Week High 14.26
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.05
Fibonacci 50% 12.68
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.31
Last Price 11.62s
52-Week Low 11.10

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