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Sugar #11 Mar '20 (SBH20)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Settle Higher on Fund Short-Covering

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) on Friday closed up by +0.10 (+0.84%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) closed up by +8.90 (+2.89%). Sugar prices posted moderate gains Friday with Mar NY sugar at a 1-week high and Dec London sugar at a 2-week high on fund short-covering. Rabobank on Wednesday projected that EU 2019/20 sugar output will fall -2.8% y/y to 17.5 MMT. London sugar also has support on speculation the upcoming delivery of Oct futures, which expire Friday, will be smaller than expectations, which has bolstered short-covering in London sugar futures. In a potentially bullish factor for London sugar prices was Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds boosted their net-short position by 848 positions in the week ended Sep 10 to 37,342 net-short sugar positions, a record high in data going back to 2011, which could provide fuel for a short-covering rally. Another bullish factor for sugar was data from Unica on Tuesday that showed sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region in the 2019/20 marketing year through August fell -4.85 y/y to 17.971 MMT. Unica projects that increased ethanol output in Brazil will cut Brazil 2019/20 Center-South sugar production by -5.7% y/y to 25 MMT, a 14-year low. Mar NY sugar prices on Thursday posted a contract low and the nearest-futures contract (V19) dropped to an 11-1/2 month low on the outlook for robust sugar supplies to persist. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Monday said that a global sugar deficit for 2019/20 will be insufficient to erase huge global stockpiles since a "war on sugar" is hurting sugar consumption. ISO on Sep 2 said it sees global 2019/20 sugar production falling by -2.3% y/y to 172 MMT. ISO also cut its 2018/19 global sugar surplus estimate to +1.7 MMT from a previous estimate of +1.8 MMT and projected a 2019/20 global sugar deficit of -4.8 MMT. Concern about larger exports from India is undercutting sugar prices. India's government on Aug 28 approved extending sugar subsidies to subsidize exports of as much as 6 MMT of sugar in 2019/20, which is bearish for sugar prices since those exports will add to global sugar supplies. India is struggling to reduce near-record sugar ending stocks that are expected to be at 14.2 MMT on Oct 1, which is the start of the 2019/20 sugar season, and are expected to increase to 16.2 MMT at the start of the 2020/21 sugar season. Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: World sugar production in 2019/20 (Apr/Mar) will climb +1% y/y to 180.7 MMT (USDA) after the +0.6% y/y rise to a record 185.2 MMT in 2018/19 (ISO). The world sugar surplus in 2018/19 fell to 1.7 MMT from the larger 2017/18 surplus of 7.3 MMT (ISO). ISO projects global 2019/20 sugar production of 172 MMT, down -2.3% y/y and a global 2018/19 sugar surplus of +1.7 MMT will turn into a deficit of -4.8 MMT in 2019/20. 2019/20 Production by Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT, after production in 2018/19 (Apr/Mar) fell -17.2% y/y to an 11-year low of 31.4 MMT (Conab). Production by India, the world's second largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will fall -15% y/y to a 3-year low of 28 MT due to drought and a delayed monsoon season (India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd).

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
03/02/20 (169 days)
Expiration Date
02/28/20 (166 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Mar '20
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 10, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
548,174 (+947)
416,061 (-25,262)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
223,325 (-7,641)
365,247 (+14,814)
Producers - Long / Short
352,562 (+7,237)
376,090 (-21,258)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
169,243 (-2,755)
13,602 (-469)
Managed Money - Long / Short
138,190 (-9,038)
347,365 (+15,625)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
85,135 (+1,397)
17,882 (-811)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
11.74 +1.70%
on 09/12/19
12.85 -7.08%
on 08/14/19
-0.83 (-6.50%)
since 08/13/19
3-Month
11.74 +1.70%
on 09/12/19
13.78 -13.35%
on 06/17/19
-1.77 (-12.91%)
since 06/13/19
52-Week
11.74 +1.70%
on 09/12/19
14.82 -19.43%
on 10/24/18
-1.38 (-10.36%)
since 09/13/18

More Sugar #11 Quotes

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Cotton Closes Mostly Higher

Cotton futures closed the day with 7 to 20 point gains in the front months, thinly traded Oct down 49 points. Dec gained 6.32% this week. China did give tariff exemptions from the second round of implementation...

Coffee Prices Close Lower as They Consolidate Recent Gains

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) on Friday closed down -0.85 (-0.82%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) closed down -12 (-0.88%). Coffee prices moved lower Friday on consolidation after recent gains. Dec arabica...

Sugar Prices Settle Higher on Fund Short-Covering

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) on Friday closed up by +0.10 (+0.84%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) closed up by +8.90 (+2.89%). Sugar prices posted moderate gains Friday with Mar NY sugar...

Cocoa Prices Settle at 1-1/4 Month Highs on Lower Cocoa Output in Ghana

Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ19) on Friday closed up +18 (+0.78%), and Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ19) closed up +10 (+0.56%). Cocoa prices rallied to a 1-1/4 month highs Friday as the outlook for smaller cocoa...

I Am Bullish Cocoa Prices

Be patient

Cotton Mostly Higher

Cotton futures are 13 to 28 points higher in the front months, with thinly traded Oct down 55 points. China did give tariff exemptions from the second round of implementation to several US ag goods, though...

Softs Report 09/13/19

COTTON General Comments: Cotton was higher as USDA cut production more than expected. It also cut demand to leave ending stocks unchanged. World data [...]

The DeCarley Perspective...Strategy Recommendation, buy calls in Sugar

The DeCarley Perspective...Strategy Recommendation, buy calls in Sugar

Cocoa Prices Rally to a 1-1/4 Month High on Lower Cocoa Output in Ghana

Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ19) this morning is up +45 (+1.94%), and Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ19) is up +24 (+1.35%). Cocoa prices rallied to a 1-1/4 month highs as the outlook for smaller cocoa output in...

Coffee Prices are Lower as They Consolidate Recent Gains

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) this morning is down -0.80 (-0.77%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) is down -4 (-0.29%). Coffee prices are lower this morning on consolidation after recent gains. Dec arabica...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 88% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 12.19
1st Resistance Point 12.07
Last Price 11.94s
1st Support Level 11.82
2nd Support Level 11.69

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52-Week High 14.82
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.64
Fibonacci 50% 13.28
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.92
Last Price 11.94s
52-Week Low 11.74

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InsideFutures Commentary

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