Gasoline RBOB Futures Market News and Commentary
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) on Tuesday closed down by -3.56 (-5.66%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) closed down by -4.47 (-6.48%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) closed down -0.0773 (-4.41%). The energy complex fell back sharply Tuesday on a Reuters report that said Saudi Arabian oil output will return faster than first thought. Reuters reported Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is already close to restoring 70% of its oil production lost in Saturday's drone strike and that it expects to return to full production in the next two to three weeks. Crude prices on Monday earlier surged to 3-3/4 month highs after Saudi Arabia lost about half of its oil production output (i.e., 5 mln bpd of total 9.8 mln bpd production), representing about 5% of total world output, due to a drone attack and fire at its key Abqaiq oil processing facility on Saturday. Tensions remain high due to concern regarding a possible U.S. military strike against Iran after CBS reported Tuesday that the U.S. has identified the exact locations in Iran where more than 20 drones and cruise missiles were launched in Saturday's attack on Saudi oil facilities. Also, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Tuesday that Iran will not negotiate with the U.S. "on any level." Tuesday's global economic data was supportive for economic growth and energy demand after U.S. Aug manufacturing production rose +0.5%, stronger than expectations of +0.2%, and Aug industrial production rose +0.6%, stronger than expectations of +0.2% and the biggest increase in a year. Also, the U.S. Sep NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose +1 to an 11-month high of 68, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 66. In addition, the German Sep ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index rose +21.6 to -22.5, stronger than expectations of +6.1 to -38.0. Crude prices added to losses Tuesday afternoon when the API reported that U.S. crude stockpiles rose +592,000 bbl last week. A supportive factor for crude prices is the consensus for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to fall -2.0 million bbl. Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 6 were -0.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +3.2% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -5.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 6 was unchanged at 12.4 million bpd, just below the record high of 12.5 million bpd in the week of Aug 23.