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Natural Gas Aug '19 (NGQ19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Drop to a 1-Week low as Excessive Temps are Forecast to Subside

Aug Nymex natural gas (NGQ19) on Tuesday closed down -0.102 (-4.24%) at a 1-week low. Nat-gas prices sold off Tuesday for a second day and posted a 1-week low as excessive temperatures across the U.S. are expected to fade starting July 26, which should curb nat-gas demand for air-conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said Monday that temperatures will be above normal across most of the U.S. over the next 10 days but will fall back to normal during July 25-29. Another bearish factor is above-average builds in weekly nat-gas supplies as this Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories report is expected to increase by 71 bcf, higher than the 5-year average of 63 bcf and the sixteenth straight week that U.S. nat-gas supplies would increase by more than the 5-year average. Nat-gas prices are also being undercut by robust U.S. nat-gas output as Tuesday’s data showed that U.S. lower 48-state nat-gas production rose +5.2% y/y to 83.129 bcf. Last Thursday's weekly EIA inventory data was bearish as U.S. nat-gas inventories rose by 81 bcf the week of July 5, above expectations of 74 bcf and above the 5-year average of 71 bcf. U.S. nat gas inventories have now increased by more than the 5-year average for fifteen consecutive weeks. Last Thursday's EIA data showed that U.S. nat-gas supplies stood at a 5-3/4 month high of 2.471 bcf as of July 5, up +12.2% y/y but -5.4% below the 5-year average.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,815/1,650
First Notice Date
07/30/19 (13 days)
Expiration Date
07/29/19 (12 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Aug '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Aug Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jul 9, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
638,252 (+10,208)
509,208 (+9,644)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
205,907 (-12,249)
363,414 (-13,887)
Producers - Long / Short
267,213 (+12,394)
278,600 (+15,028)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
217,725 (+305)
77,294 (-2,893)
Managed Money - Long / Short
145,804 (-668)
297,778 (-16,568)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
60,103 (-11,581)
65,636 (+2,681)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.134 +9.09%
on 06/20/19
2.489 -6.47%
on 07/10/19
-0.045 (-1.90%)
since 06/17/19
3-Month
2.134 +9.09%
on 06/20/19
2.745 -15.19%
on 05/20/19
-0.324 (-12.22%)
since 04/17/19
52-Week
2.134 +9.09%
on 06/20/19
3.004 -22.50%
on 03/19/19
-0.306 (-11.62%)
since 07/17/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Good. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.447
1st Resistance Point 2.377
Last Price 2.327
1st Support Level 2.267
2nd Support Level 2.227

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52-Week High 3.004
Fibonacci 61.8% 2.672
Fibonacci 50% 2.569
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.466
Last Price 2.327
52-Week Low 2.134

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