Wheat Markets Fading another Nickel

Wheat is trading 4 to 7 cents lower in the winter wheat and 2 cents weaker early on Friday morning. The U.S. wheat futures market continued lower through Thursday, ending the day down by double digits in all but the spring wheat markets. MGE HRS prices were 4 ½ to 6 cents weaker at the bell. Front month SRW futures closed 14 ¼ to 18 ½ cents lower with March just 1 ¾ cents off the daily low. KC HRW futures closed down by as much as 14 cents, which tightened the KC/CBT spread to 8 ¾ cents for March. The July SRW contract holds a 6 ½ cent premium to July HRW. 

The wheat export bookings were 349,286 MT for the week of 2/8 according to the USDA’s FAS data. That was a ~30k MT decrease from the week prior and near the lower end of the expected range, but was up 66% from sales during the same week last year. USDA had shipments at 405k MT for the week, which brought the season total to 11.5 MMT. That still trails last year by 11%, though the +72% of unshipped sales on the books has wheat commitments at 17.6 MMT compared to 16.5 MMT at the same time last year. 

IGC revised the 23/24 wheat carryout 1 MMT tighter on increased trade to 265 MMT. 

USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist has the preliminary look at 24/25 wheat output at 1.9 bbu, an 88 mbu increase from 23/24. Stocks are shown growing 111 mbu to 769 mbu, as the carry-in stocks are also set to start higher. 

The French AgriMer expect wheat carryout to be 3.5 MMT from the prior 3.44 MMT forecast. 

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.67, down by 18 1/2 cents, currently down 5 1/2 cents

May 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.67 1/4, down by 15 3/4 cents, currently down 5 1/2 cents

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.75 3/4, down by 12 cents, currently down 7 1/2 cents

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.58, down by 4 1/2 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents