Why Grains are Going into a Bear Market

(ZWN26) (ZCN26) (ZSN26) (WEAT) (CORN) (SOYB) (TAGS) (DBA) 

“Why Grains are Going into a Bear Market”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter and Climatelligence

Scott Mathews - Editor

• May 18, 2026

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The USDA wheat shocker report was not really a surprise, given that more than 60% of the U.S. wheat crop has been in drought conditions for months. The table below shows the lowest U.S. wheat crop in years. Why have the Plains wheat areas remained in drought? The residual effects of La Niña are partially responsible. El Niño is not yet upon us yet, but will soon be. Its first effects will be felt down in Texas, where some drought-easing rains will hit parched cotton-growing areas deeper in May. This, combined with the stronger dollar, is one reason cotton prices collapsed in recent days.

Data Source: USDA

In my newsletter, I show charts like this and explain why the KC-CBOT wheat spread has soared in recent months. This was after last Tuesday’s bullish USDA report.

Source: Weather Wealth

Yet, wheat prices are in a tailspin again, along with other grain markets. Why? Seasonal harvest pressure for wheat, the stronger dollar, and the fact that the weather in other parts of the world is not too bad. Rains like this will be coming to Australia shortly. Combined with a decent crop in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, this means the global inventory situation is not nearly as tight as in the U.S.

Source: Weather Wealth

If you did not catch the recent move up in wheat and our most recent bearish attitude in new crop corn, then you need to subscribe to WeatherWealth. Could there be a hot, dry Midwest summer? How strong will El Niño be, and how will it impact global commodities? Find out here with a free trial. (See the link at the top of this Barchart.com article.) 

Also, take a look at our new outlet on Substack, where we publish Climatelligence (link is also at the top of this article)

Remember when trading commodities, always deploy a risk management strategy, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, and consider using calendar spreads to isolate the seasonal component of a particular market move.

Thanks for your interest in Commodity Weather Intelligence!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.