Bank Holiday Monday Followed By More Earnings Reports And Other Key Themes To Watch

Last week was another busy week for the markets. We rallied on Monday into CPI on Tuesday. Chopped around through the middle of the week and then after some hawkish news from one of the Fed presidents struggled to find a bid into Friday where the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) finished the week down around 0.05%. 

The Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) was -0.13% for the week while the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) was +0.43% higher.

While overall it's nothing spectacular, it did present many trading opportunities throughout the week. 

Next week is positioning itself to be an interesting week as well. It'll be a short week for the US markets, there are some pretty big earnings coming out, and to add some extra fun to the mix there is a Fed release on Wednesday. That is on top of all the Geopolitical issues that still exist and the domestic issues being faced in the US. So here are 5 things to watch this week:

Bank Holiday

The US is closed Monday for Presidents day. This Bank holiday will affect all the major exchanges and futures markets. Usually, that leads to a decline in volume throughout the trading week as well. While that is not a solid rule, it should be something to keep an eye on this week.

Earnings

Earnings are still going strong, hopefully, some of you have caught some profit off of the many moves that have occurred. This week is no different even though it is a short week. Tuesday we have Walmart (WMT) on the list as well as Home Depot (HD) before the market opens. Thursday Alibaba (BABA) and Moderna (MRNA) are two of the bigger names releasing before the market open. Friday EOG Resources (EOG) and HF Sinclair (DINO) are the two of the larger names reporting. There is a small lull in reporting again this upcoming week, but it will be short-lived as next week we are back to a few hundred a day with some big-names reporting!

Flash Services PMI

With the continuation of strong Job numbers recently mixed with the hotter-than-expected inflation numbers, it's possible that the Services PMI could move the markets in a real way, the question is just which direction? Usually one would want to see expansion in the number but with the FED seemingly bent on trying to hurt the economy to bring inflation down a hot number could be viewed as negative. Conversely, if it is another month below 50 and below what last month was it could be seen as positive by market participants that the Fed will not have to start more aggressively raising rates. Either way, it may produce a tradable event and make the market open ripe with opportunity. 

Fed Meeting Minutes

The FOMC is releasing their previous meeting minutes Wednesday at 2 pm EST. While it seems like they are talking daily now, this event usually carries some weight as it will give insight into the thinking behind the last Fed Rate decision. This release in particular may be under scrutiny after the hawkish statements by Fed President Mester about larger future rate increases. The Meeting minutes are usually good for a tradable impulse and reaction.

Consumer Sentiment

Due out Friday at 10 am EST is the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment number. This number has been on the rise since December and is a strong leading indicator for US economic health. While this may not produce any real tradable reaction it could be important down the road as most analysts are not saying we will at least touch a recession on raising rates. It will be interesting to see if this theory holds true or if it's even really hit the “street” yet.

Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.

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