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White Sugar #5 Aug '19 (SWQ19)

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White Sugar #5 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Market News and Commentary

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Friday closed down -0.10 (-0.78%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed down -2.20 (-0.64%). Sugar prices moved lower Friday due to a slide in crude oil prices and a stronger dollar as the dollar index jumped to a 1-1/2 year high. Sugar prices posted a 2-week low Thursday after researcher Marex Spectron warned that unless crude oil rallies, sugar's upside will be capped by lower ethanol parity in Brazil. Weaker ethanol prices may prompt Brazil's sugar producers to divert more cane-crushing toward sugar production than ethanol production, which will boost sugar supplies. Sugar still has underlying support from Tuesday's data from Unica showing that Brazil 2018/19 Center-South sugar production through Nov was 25.761 MMT, down -25.8% y/y, and that the percent of cane crushing for sugar output fell to 35.71% from 47.12% y/y while cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 64.29% from 52.88% y/y.Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: Bullish factors for sugar include (1) concern about smaller global production after Unica forecasted that Brazil's Center South 2018/19 sugar production will fall -28% y/y to 26 MMT, and (2) generally strong global demand. Bearish factors include (1) ISO's forecast that global 2018/19 sugar production will rise +0.6% y/y to a record 185.2 MMT and that there will be a 2018/19 sugar surplus of 2.2 MMT (vs 2017/18's 7.3 MMT), (2) USDA's FAS forecast for 2018/19 sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, to climb +5.2% y/y to a record 35.87 MMT, (3) record sugar output from Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer, after the Thailand Office of Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand 2017/18 sugar production rose to a record 14.47 MMT, (4) the plunge in crude oil prices to a 13-3/4 month low in late-Nov, which is negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert less cane to making ethanol, thus increasing sugar supplies.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
White Sugar #5
Contract Size
50 metric tonnes
Tick Size
10 cents per metric tonne ($5.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
8:45a.m. - 6:30p.m. GMT
Exchange
ICE
Point Value
$50
Expiration Date
07/16/19 (212 days)

Seasonal Chart

White Sugar #5 Aug '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Aug Contracts
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
345.30 +2.26%
on 11/27/18
362.50 -2.59%
on 12/07/18
-1.90 (-0.54%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
319.50 +10.52%
on 09/27/18
389.80 -9.42%
on 10/24/18
+6.70 (+1.93%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
318.00 +11.04%
on 08/21/18
417.70 -15.47%
on 01/04/18
-38.50 (-9.83%)
since 12/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 24% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 355.70
1st Resistance Point 354.40
Last Price 353.10s
1st Support Level 352.20
2nd Support Level 351.30

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52-Week High 417.70
Fibonacci 61.8% 379.61
Fibonacci 50% 367.85
Fibonacci 38.2% 356.09
Last Price 353.10s
52-Week Low 318.00

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