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White Sugar #5 Aug '19 (SWQ19)

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White Sugar #5 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Move Lower on Weakness in the Brazilian Real and Crude Oil Prices

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Thursday closed down -0.18 (-1.35%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed down -3.80 (-1.06%). Sugar prices moved lower Thursday after weakness in the Brazilian real and in crude oil prices sparked long liquidation in sugar futures. The Brazilian real fell to a 1-week low against the dollar Thursday, which encourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Crude prices also moved lower Thursday, which is negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. May NY sugar rallied to a 3-1/2 month high and May London sugar rose to a 1-month high Wednesday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar. Also, increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, fueled fund buying of sugar after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd projected on Tuesday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Sugar prices have underlying support from Unica's report last Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).

Contract Specifications

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Contract
White Sugar #5
Contract Size
50 metric tonnes
Tick Size
10 cents per metric tonne ($5.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
8:45a.m. - 6:30p.m. GMT
Exchange
ICE
Point Value
$50
Expiration Date
07/16/19 (144 days)

Seasonal Chart

White Sugar #5 Aug '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Aug Contracts
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
346.30 +5.37%
on 02/14/19
367.80 -0.79%
on 02/20/19
+2.10 (+0.58%)
since 01/22/19
3-Month
333.70 +9.35%
on 01/03/19
369.40 -1.22%
on 01/16/19
+16.00 (+4.59%)
since 11/22/18
52-Week
318.00 +14.75%
on 08/21/18
391.10 -6.70%
on 03/01/18
-24.00 (-6.17%)
since 02/22/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 369.00
1st Resistance Point 366.60
Last Price 365.90
1st Support Level 361.80
2nd Support Level 359.40

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52-Week High 391.10
Last Price 365.90
Fibonacci 61.8% 363.18
Fibonacci 50% 354.55
Fibonacci 38.2% 345.92
52-Week Low 318.00

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