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Coffee May '19 (KCK19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Recover from Recent Losses on Strength in the Brazilian Real

May arabica coffee (KCK19) this morning is up +1.35 (+1.42%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) is up +14 (+0.94%). Coffee prices are recovering from recent losses today as strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar spurs fund short-covering. A stronger real discourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee tumbled to a contract low Wednesday and May robusta held just above Friday's contract low on ample coffee supplies and rain in Brazil. Researcher Cepea on Wednesday projected Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports may climb to a record 40 mln bags. Also, ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.5 mln bags on Tuesday and CeCafe reported last Wednesday that Brazil Feb arabica coffee exports jumped +40.5% y/y to 3.1 mln bags. In addition, abundant rainfall in Brazil is benefiting Brazil's coffee crops after data from Somar Meteorologia on Monday showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee growing region, measured 56.8 mm in the past week, or 131% of the historical average. A positive factor for coffee was last Friday's data from the Green Coffee Association that showed U.S. Feb green coffee inventories fell -4% y/y to 6.26 mln bags. A positive factor for robusta coffee is smaller robusta supply after recent data from Vietnam's Department of Customs showed that Vietnam Jan-Feb coffee exports fell -10.1% y/y to 317,148 MT.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Coffee C Arabica
Contract Size
37,500 pounds (approximately 250 bags)
Tick Size
0.05 cents per pound ($18.75 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:15a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$375
Margin/Maintenance
$2,970/2,700
First Notice Date
04/22/19 (32 days)
Expiration Date
05/20/19 (60 days)

Seasonal Chart

Coffee May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
164,456 (+2,443)
119,501 (+33)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
68,258 (-282)
126,782 (+4,035)
Producers - Long / Short
114,833 (+6,188)
99,562 (+4,081)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
36,334 (-488)
6,650 (-791)
Managed Money - Long / Short
35,987 (+1,214)
117,834 (+2,911)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
32,271 (-1,496)
8,948 (+1,124)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
94.35 +0.85%
on 03/20/19
100.95 -5.75%
on 03/04/19
-4.30 (-4.32%)
since 02/21/19
3-Month
94.35 +0.85%
on 03/20/19
110.20 -13.66%
on 01/25/19
-7.75 (-7.53%)
since 12/21/18
52-Week
94.35 +0.85%
on 03/20/19
137.15 -30.62%
on 05/02/18
-37.25 (-28.13%)
since 03/21/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 97.75
1st Resistance Point 96.25
Last Price 94.80
1st Support Level 93.80
2nd Support Level 92.85

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52-Week High 137.15
Fibonacci 61.8% 120.80
Fibonacci 50% 115.75
Fibonacci 38.2% 110.70
Last Price 94.80
52-Week Low 94.35

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