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Coffee May '19 (KCK19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Close Sharply Lower on Favorable Brazil Harvest Weather

July arabica coffee (KCN19) on Friday closed sharply lower by -1.35 (-1.39%), and ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed -20 (-1.45%). July arabica coffee on Friday fell to a new 2-1/2 week low on dollar strength (+0.6%) and the favorable harvest weather in Brazil. In another potentially bearish factor, late-Friday data showed that money managers cut their net short positions in robusta coffee by -1,584 to a 4-month low of 24,262 contracts in the week ended June 11, which reduces the chances for a short squeeze. Brazilian weather forecaster Rural Clima on Tuesday forecasted "ideal weather conditions" for central and southeast Brazil over at least the next 10 days that will allow farmers to speed up their coffee harvests and dry the beans. Somar Meteorologia is forecasting little rain and warmer temperatures in Brazil's coffee-growing areas through the rest of June. Coffee supplies are abundant after Brazil reported last Tuesday that its May coffee exports surged +123% y/y to 3.157 mln bags, and Columbia reported last Wednesday that its May coffee exports rose +7.6% y/y to 1.023 mln bags. Also, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported last Monday that global 2018/19 coffee exports during Oct-Apr rose by +4.4% y/y to 74 mln bags. Current coffee supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to an 8-1/4 month low of 2.383 mln bags on Wednesday, down from March's 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags. Coffee prices rallied last week with Jul arabica at a 4-month high and Jul robusta at a 2-1/2 month high after ICO last Tuesday cut its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 3.4 mln bags from a May estimate of 3.7 mln bags. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, and (2) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) ample supplies as ICO data showed that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Apr rose +4.4% y/y to 74 mln bags, (2) ICO's hike in its forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus to 3.7 mln bags from a prior view of 3.1 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months, and (3) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Coffee C Arabica
Contract Size
37,500 pounds (approximately 250 bags)
Tick Size
0.05 cents per pound ($18.75 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:15a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$375
Margin/Maintenance
$3,300/3,000
First Notice Date
04/22/19
Expiration Date
05/20/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Coffee May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
158,633 (-1,074)
146,704 (-177)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
59,512 (-9,723)
81,008 (-9,470)
Producers - Long / Short
107,125 (+3,798)
128,899 (+4,948)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
38,638 (-1,003)
4,935 (-1,256)
Managed Money - Long / Short
39,468 (-2,377)
72,058 (-9,511)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
20,044 (-7,346)
8,950 (+41)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
86.65 +1.85%
on 05/07/19
93.85 -5.97%
on 04/30/19
-1.95 (-2.16%)
since 04/18/19
3-Month
86.35 +2.20%
on 04/17/19
101.15 -12.75%
on 02/21/19
-13.15 (-12.97%)
since 02/20/19
52-Week
86.35 +2.20%
on 04/17/19
136.25 -35.23%
on 06/01/18
-41.30 (-31.88%)
since 05/18/18

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Coffee Prices Close Sharply Lower on Favorable Brazil Harvest Weather

July arabica coffee (KCN19) on Friday closed sharply lower by -1.35 (-1.39%), and ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed -20 (-1.45%). July arabica coffee on Friday fell to a new 2-1/2 week low on dollar strength...

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Coffee Prices Remain on the Defensive Due to Favorable Brazil Harvest Weather

July arabica coffee (KCN19) are mildly higher by +0.20 (+0.21%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) is little changed. July arabica coffee is consolidating just mildly above Wednesday's 2-week low....

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 89.25
1st Resistance Point 88.75
Last Price 88.25s
1st Support Level 87.25
2nd Support Level 86.25

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52-Week High 136.25
Fibonacci 61.8% 117.19
Fibonacci 50% 111.30
Fibonacci 38.2% 105.41
Last Price 88.25s
52-Week Low 86.35

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InsideFutures Commentary

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