Nasdaq Futures Fall as Intel Sinks on Disappointing Outlook, U.S. PMI Data in Focus

March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are trending down -0.20% this morning as a lackluster forecast from semiconductor giant Intel weighed on sentiment.

Intel (INTC) sank more than -13% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker issued disappointing Q1 guidance and Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan cautioned that the company continues to face manufacturing challenges.

Investor focus now turns to U.S. business activity data, which will offer fresh insight into the health of the world’s largest economy.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Meta Platforms (META) rising over +5% and Tesla (TSLA) gaining more than +4%. Also, most chip stocks climbed, with ARM Holdings (ARM) surging over +4% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising more than +1%. In addition, Datadog (DDOG) jumped over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Stifel upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $160. On the bearish side, Abbott Laboratories (ABT) slumped more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the medical devices maker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 net sales.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Thursday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y in November, in line with expectations. Also, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said Q3 GDP growth was revised higher to +4.4% (q/q annualized) in its final estimate, stronger than expectations of no change at +4.3%. In addition, U.S. November personal spending rose +0.5% m/m, in line with expectations, while personal income grew +0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +1K to 200K, compared with the 209K expected.

“[Thursday’s] data should reassure the Fed that the economy remains on a solid footing, despite a cooler labor market,” said James McCann, an economist at Edward Jones. “Indeed, there looks to be little urgency to cut rates at next week’s meeting, and the central bank could stay on hold for longer should growth remain robust into 2026 and inflation continue to run at above target rates.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.2% probability of no rate change and a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

Today, investors will focus on preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 51.9 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 52.9, compared to the previous values of 51.8 and 52.5, respectively.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will also be released today. Economists anticipate that the final January figure will be unrevised at 54.0.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.239%, down -0.28%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.45% this morning, giving back some of the prior session’s sharp gains after President Trump reversed his planned Greenland-related tariffs. Travel and technology stocks were among the biggest losers on Friday. At the same time, telecom stocks outperformed, led by a more than +8% jump in Ericsson (ERICB.S.DX) after it posted upbeat Q4 results, raised its dividend, and said it would propose a buyback program of around $1.7 billion. Energy stocks also advanced. The benchmark index is on track to post a weekly loss. A survey released on Friday showed that Eurozone business activity grew at a slower-than-expected pace in January, as softer expansion in the dominant services sector offset a milder contraction in manufacturing. Separately, data showed that U.K. monthly retail sales unexpectedly rose in December, offering a boost to the economy during the crucial holiday season. Investor focus in the region also fell on the Amsterdam debut of arms maker CSG N.V. The stock opened 28% higher after the company raised 3.8 billion euros ($4.47 billion) in the largest-ever global initial public offering for a pure-play defense firm, underscoring strong investor appetite for the sector.

U.K. Retail Sales, U.K. Core Retail Sales, France’s Business Survey, Eurozone’s Composite PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

U.K. December Retail Sales rose +0.4% m/m and +2.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of no change m/m and +1.0% y/y.

U.K. December Core Retail Sales rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y.

The French January Business Survey came in at 105, stronger than expectations of 101.

Eurozone’s January Composite PMI has been reported at 51.5, weaker than expectations of 51.6.

Eurozone’s January Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, stronger than expectations of 49.1.

Eurozone’s January Services PMI arrived at 51.9, weaker than expectations of 52.6.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.33%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.29%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today. Defense and non-ferrous metal stocks outperformed on Friday. At the same time, AI-related stocks fell due to profit-taking. The benchmark index notched a weekly gain despite indications that authorities are seeking to rein in the pace of market gains. Over the past week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges each took regulatory action against hundreds of abnormal trading practices, including price pumping and false orders. Regulators also tightened margin financing rules last week. In addition, Bloomberg reported on Friday that China’s securities regulator is weighing stricter criteria for mainland firms seeking to sell shares in Hong Kong, after an offshore fundraising boom sparked concerns about deal quality. Meanwhile, China’s central bank set the yuan’s daily fixing above the closely watched 7-per-dollar level for the first time since 2023, signaling it is willing to allow a gradual appreciation of the currency while seeking to avoid pressure on exporters. In other news, the South China Morning Post reported on Friday that China is expected to set an official economic growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% to 5%. In corporate news, Alibaba Group rose over +2% in Hong Kong after Bloomberg reported that the company was preparing to list its chipmaking unit, T-Head.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today after the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged. Japanese equities also drew support from Wall Street’s overnight gains. Videogame, bank, and pharmaceutical stocks led the gains on Friday. Still, the benchmark index posted a marginal weekly loss. The BOJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, as it assesses the impact of last month’s hike. One of the bank’s policy board members, Hajime Takata, proposed raising rates to 1% but was outvoted by the majority. In its latest quarterly outlook report, the bank lifted its growth forecasts for fiscal 2025 and 2026 and revised higher four of its six inflation projections. In a press conference following the decision, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to raise rates if the economic outlook materializes. Ueda also said the central bank could conduct operations to manage volatility in the bond market smoothly. However, Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed on Friday as the dissenting vote and higher price forecasts reinforced expectations for an early BOJ rate hike. Data released earlier on Friday supported that view as Japan’s core consumer inflation eased in the year to December but remained above the central bank’s 2% target. Separately, a private-sector survey showed that Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded in January for the first time in seven months, while growth in the services sector accelerated. In other news, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the lower house of parliament on Friday to call a snap election for February 8th. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +6.92% to 31.66.

The Japanese December National Core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Japanese January au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 51.5, stronger than expectations of 50.1.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) sank more than -13% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker issued disappointing Q1 guidance and Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan cautioned that the company continues to face manufacturing challenges.

Nvidia (NVDA) advanced more than +1% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials have told the country’s largest technology firms, including Alibaba Group, that they can prepare orders for the company’s H200 AI chips.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after the maker of surgical robots posted better-than-expected Q4 results.

Applied Materials (AMAT) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $390.

Procter & Gamble (PG) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan and DBS Bank upgraded the stock.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - January 23rd

SLB N.V. (SLB), First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Webster Financial (WBS).