Stocks Rally Before the Open on Upbeat Nvidia Earnings, U.S. Jobs Report in Focus

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +1.12%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +1.55% this morning as strong quarterly results and guidance from AI darling Nvidia boosted sentiment.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +4% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and provided an upbeat Q4 revenue forecast. Strong results from the AI bellwether helped ease concerns about a potential bubble in the AI sector that had rattled markets in recent weeks.

Attention now turns to the delayed September jobs report, which will provide investors with clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. GE Vernova (GEV) climbed over +7% and was among the top percentage gainers on the S&P 500 after the company announced it had secured its first international onshore wind repower upgrade agreement with Taiwan Power Company. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Applied Materials (AMAT) and Broadcom (AVGO) rising more than +4%. In addition, Constellation Energy (CEG) advanced over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the electricity provider announced that the U.S. Department of Energy had loaned it $1 billion to fund the restart of the nuclear plant at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. On the bearish side, Eversource Energy (ES) plunged more than -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Connecticut regulators rejected its request to sell its subsidiary, Aquarion Water Company.

Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to -$59.6 billion in August from -$78.2 billion (revised from -$78.3 billion) in July, better than expectations of -$61.3 billion.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s October 28-29 meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that many Fed officials said it would likely be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025. “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” according to the FOMC minutes. The minutes also showed that “several” officials opposed reducing the Fed’s benchmark rate last month. At the same time, “several participants” said another rate cut “could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected” ahead of the next meeting.

“Uncertainty is running high because of the lost data and the unclear impact of tariffs. There’s no consensus at the Fed with policymakers flying blind, but these minutes lean hawkish overall,” said David Russell at TradeStation. 

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68.2% chance of no rate change and a 31.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at December’s monetary policy meeting.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report for September, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report was originally scheduled for release on October 3rd, but was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists, on average, forecast that September Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 53K, compared to the August figure of 22K.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday it won’t release an October jobs report, but will incorporate the payroll figures into the November reading scheduled after the Fed’s final meeting of 2025. The shutdown prevented the collection and release of the data. That leaves Fed officials without a key piece of economic data ahead of their final meeting of the year.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect the September figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, the same as in August.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will remain steady at 4.3% in September.

The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will come in today. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 1.0 in November, compared to last month’s value of -12.8.

U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 4.08 million in October, compared to 4.06 million in September.

On the earnings front, retail giant Walmart (WMT), along with notable companies such as Intuit (INTU) and Copart (CPRT), are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.136%, up +0.07%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.63% this morning as sentiment got a boost after AI bellwether Nvidia posted strong earnings, easing concerns about an AI bubble that has rocked markets worldwide. Technology stocks climbed on Thursday. “Nvidia’s results have completely changed the market mood and pushed out any bubble fears for another day,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid. Bank stocks also gained ground, with BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) rising over +4% after the lender raised its CET1 ratio target to 13% by 2027. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said on Thursday that the Eurozone economy is developing as anticipated, and that only a significant deviation from this trajectory would warrant another rate cut. Investors now await the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for November, along with the delayed September U.S. jobs report, set for release later in the day. In other corporate news, Halma Plc (HLMA.LN) surged over +11% after the engineering group posted strong first-half results and raised its full-year guidance.

Germany’s PPI data was released today.

The German October PPI rose +0.1% m/m and fell -1.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of no change m/m and -1.9% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.40%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.65%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors locked in profits following a strong rally this year. New energy stocks retreated on Thursday. Technology and chip stocks also fell. At the same time, property stocks climbed after Bloomberg reported that China is weighing fresh measures to revive its struggling property market, including offering nationwide mortgage subsidies to first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, China kept its benchmark lending rates steady on Thursday for the sixth straight month in November, as expected, as the world’s second-largest economy remains on course to meet its growth target this year. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) remained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR held steady at 3.5%, according to the People’s Bank of China. Citi’s Xiangrong Yu and Xinyu Ji said the PBOC’s decision likely indicates that policymakers prefer to wait and retain policy room for next year. In corporate news, Lenovo Group rose nearly +1% in Hong Kong after the world’s largest personal computer maker posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Investor focus now shifts to the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December for signals on next year’s policy agenda.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, snapping a four-day losing streak, as Nvidia’s strong results and guidance eased valuation concerns over the AI sector. Chip and technology stocks rallied on Thursday. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds tumbled on Thursday, sending 30-year yields to a record high as worries intensified over the fiscal implications of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package. A draft seen by Reuters showed that Japan’s government is in the final stages of crafting a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.38 billion) stimulus package to help households cope with persistent inflation, marking the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. Takaichi’s stimulus package is expected to be unveiled on Friday. Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda said on Thursday that the central bank is prepared to intervene in the bond market if yields climb sharply under exceptional circumstances. Koeda also said that a key gauge of inflation in Japan is approaching the BOJ’s target, indicating that the next rate hike may be on the horizon. In other news, foreign investors bought a net 1.02 trillion yen worth of Japanese stocks in the week to November 15th, snapping up beaten-down technology shares after a recent selloff. In corporate news, Sompo Holdings jumped over +10% after the insurer announced a 77 billion yen share buyback. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -18.41% to 29.83.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +4% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and provided an upbeat Q4 revenue forecast.

EXACT Sciences (EXAS) surged over +17% in pre-market trading after Abbott Laboratories agreed to acquire the company for $105 per share.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after the company rolled out new air-cooled GPU systems built around AMD’s Instinct MI355X.

Nasdaq (NDAQ) gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $110.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slid more than -3% in pre-market trading as the cybersecurity company’s FQ1 results and FQ2 guidance failed to impress investors. The company also announced that it was acquiring Chronosphere for $3.35 billion.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - November 20th

Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU), NetEase (NTES), Ross Stores (ROST), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Copart (CPRT), Jacobs Engineering (J), Warner Music (WMG), Vipshop (VIPS), Elastic (ESTC), Gap (GAP), UGI (UGI), Construction Partners (ROAD), Post (POST), ESCO Technologies (ESE), Maximus (MMS), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Atkore Intl (ATKR), ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), Youdao (DAO), Phoenix Education Partners (PXED), Tsakos Energy (TEN), Matthews (MATW), Natural Grocers Vitamin (NGVC), Liquidity Services (LQDT), Cool Company Oy (CLCO).