Stocks Set for Muted Open as Investors Await Nvidia Earnings and U.S. Jobs Data

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.02%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.09% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as cautious sentiment prevailed at the start of a busy week.

Investor focus this week is on an earnings report from AI bellwether Nvidia, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, and the release of long-delayed U.S. jobs data.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mixed. Most semiconductor stocks fell, with Lam Research (LRCX) sliding over -3% and ON Semiconductor (ON) dropping more than -2%. Also, Stubhub Holdings (STUB) tumbled about -21% after the company did not provide guidance for the current quarter. In addition, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) slipped more than -4% after ending a trial of its experimental drug milvexian for stroke and blood-clot prevention due to disappointing data. On the bullish side, DoorDash (DASH) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Needham called the stock’s recent pullback a buying opportunity and reiterated its Buy rating with a $275 price target.

“The general trend has been to buy the dip, which could provide a respite. Retail investors may be spooked temporarily, but are likely to come back in if they believe the long-term story driving many of the names that have been gutted remains intact,” said Melissa Brown at SimCorp.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Friday that further interest rate cuts could do more to entrench higher inflation than to support the labor market. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence that inflation is really coming down faster than my expectations or that we were seeing more than the gradual cooling that we’ve been seeing in the labor market.” In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that although he backed the most recent two rate cuts, he wasn’t yet persuaded about another move next month.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 55.4% chance of no rate change and a 44.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in December.

In tariff news, the White House removed duties on imported coffee, bananas, and beef on Friday amid surging prices for some grocery staples.

All eyes will be on Nvidia (NVDA) this week, dubbed “the most important stock on Earth” by Goldman Sachs, as the semiconductor giant reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Nvidia’s earnings reports have been market-moving since May 2023, when the company delivered the revenue growth forecast that reverberated globally. Skepticism toward the AI trade is now at its highest level since before Nvidia’s 2023 forecast, putting pressure on the company to deliver with its upcoming report. Retailers such as Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), and Target (TGT), along with notable companies like Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Intuit (INTU), and Copart (CPRT), are also set to release their quarterly results this week.

Market participants continue to await further updates to economic data calendars from official statistics agencies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will publish the September jobs report on Thursday, and the Census Bureau announced it will proceed with releasing reports on August construction spending, factory orders, and the trade balance. The data will gradually help clarify the state of the U.S. economy, though they’ll be more backward-looking than usual. Investors will also monitor private-sector data this week, including preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys on U.S. manufacturing and services sector activity, the National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales data, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

In addition, market watchers will parse the Fed’s minutes from the October 28-29 meeting, set for release on Wednesday, amid growing concerns over the central bank’s ability to cut interest rates next month. The FOMC lowered its benchmark rate last month for the second time this year, though Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a December reduction is far from a “foregone conclusion.” Since then, a slew of Fed officials have voiced skepticism about the need for a rate cut next month, citing lingering uncertainty about inflation. Investors will hear perspectives from Fed officials Jefferson, Waller, Williams, Barr, Hammack, Cook, Goolsbee, Paulson, and Logan throughout the week.

Today, investors will focus on the New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the November figure to come in at 6.10, compared to 10.70 in October.

The construction spending report for August will also be released today. Economists forecast this figure to be -0.2% m/m, compared to -0.1% m/m in July.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.127%, down -0.53%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.42% this morning as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of earnings from AI bellwether Nvidia and the release of long-delayed U.S. economic data in the coming days. Financial stocks led the declines on Monday. Technology stocks also fell. At the same time, media stocks outperformed, with WPP Plc (WPP.LN) rising over +3% after a report stated that the advertising giant had drawn takeover interest from rival Havas and several private equity firms. Final data from the statistics agency ISTAT confirmed on Monday that Italy’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.2% in October from 1.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the European Union lifted its economic growth estimate for this year to 1.3% from 0.9% on the back of resilient activity, but trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.4% due to higher-than-expected tariffs. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that risks to the stability of the Eurozone’s financial system remain “elevated” despite a slew of deals between the U.S. and its trading partners. “The potential for policy shocks to disrupt the international order poses significant risks of geoeconomic and regulatory fragmentation across the globe, while ongoing geopolitical tensions make more frequent and impactful adverse tail events increasingly likely,” he said. Investor focus this week is on the Eurozone’s preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys on manufacturing and services activity for November, along with remarks from several ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane. In other corporate news, Saab AB (SAABB.S.DX) climbed over +6% after securing a 3.1 billion euro contract with the Colombian government to deliver 17 Gripen fighter jets over the next five years.

Italy’s CPI data was released today.

The Italian October CPI fell -0.3% m/m and rose +1.2% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.46%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.10%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors grew cautious amid heightened tensions between Beijing and Tokyo over the weekend and chose to lock in profits after a recent rally. The dispute erupted after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told lawmakers that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could endanger Japan’s survival and potentially prompt a military response. Beijing cautioned its citizens against traveling to or studying in Japan, citing potential safety risks. Also, China’s state media warned over the weekend of major countermeasures, including imposing sanctions, suspending economic, diplomatic, and military ties, and restricting trade. Bucking the downbeat mood, AI-related stocks advanced on Monday after media reported that Huawei would unveil new AI technology on November 21st. Also, rare earth stocks gained ground after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in remarks aired on Sunday that a rare earths deal between the U.S. and China will “hopefully” be completed by Thanksgiving. In other news, Morgan Stanley strategists said Chinese equities may move into a consolidation phase next year amid an uncertain corporate earnings outlook and lofty valuations. In corporate news, Contemporary Amperex Technology fell over -3% on news that the company’s third-largest shareholder, Huang Shilin, plans to sell 1% of his stake to institutional investors. Sentiment may be further dampened by weekend reports that U.S. House Republicans are urging the Commerce Department to restrict imports of solar and grid components manufactured in China. Investor attention this week is on the People’s Bank of China, which is set to announce the country’s benchmark lending rate on Thursday. With China seemingly on course to meet its full-year growth target and banks’ net interest margins hovering near record lows, economists widely expect the PBOC to keep rates unchanged in November.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower today. Tourism and retail-related stocks slumped on Monday after China warned its citizens against traveling to Japan, citing potential safety risks. Relations between the two nations deteriorated after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told lawmakers last week that Japan could intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan, prompting Beijing to warn that Tokyo would face a “crushing” military defeat. Notably, China is Japan’s largest source of foreign tourists. Public broadcaster NHK reported that Japan is sending a senior diplomat to China on Monday in an effort to ease tensions. Limiting losses, technology stocks climbed as investors bought some chip and AI-related names on the dip. Preliminary government data released on Monday showed that the Japanese economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time in six quarters, bolstering Takaichi’s case to compile a stimulus package even as the Bank of Japan remains on course for a rate hike in the coming months. Private residential investment and exports were among the main factors weighing on overall output, as anticipated given the rollout of new construction industry regulations and ongoing U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, the Nikkei business daily reported on Sunday that Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said after meeting with Takaichi that the economic stimulus package will surpass 17 trillion yen ($110 billion). In other news, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a meeting of Japan’s top economic panel last week that maintaining an overly loose monetary stance for too long poses risks to achieving its inflation target sustainably, according to the minutes of the meeting. Investors now await Japan’s National Core CPI data for October, due on Friday, which is expected to show inflation remained at or above the central bank’s 2% target for a 43rd consecutive month. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -8.61% to 28.54.

The Japanese GDP has been reported at -0.4% q/q and -1.8% y/y in the third quarter, stronger than expectations of -0.6% q/q and -2.5% y/y.

The Japanese September Industrial Production was revised higher to +2.6% m/m from the preliminary estimate of +2.2% m/m.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in Google’s parent.

Nvidia (NVDA) fell about -1% in pre-market trading after a 13F filing showed that Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, offloaded its entire stake in the chipmaker during the third quarter.

E. W. Scripps (SSP) surged more than +17% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Sinclair had built an about 8% stake in the company, pushing to acquire the local TV broadcaster.

Rubrik (RBRK) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $97.

Dell Technologies (DELL) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Overweight with a price target of $110.

HP Inc. (HPQ) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - November 17th

Huazhu (HTHT), Full Truck Alliance Co (YMM), Aramark Holdings (ARMK), Brady (BRC), Danaos (DAC), J & J Snack Foods (JJSF), i3 Verticals (IIIV), Sigma Lithium Resources (SGML), Sohu.Com (SOHU), Terra Innovatum Global NV (NKLR), So-Young (SY), LifeMD (LFMD), Arbe Robotics (ARBE).