Hot Commodities: How El Niño and Climate Change Disrupt Markets

(SOYB) (CORN) (WEAT) (ZSU26) (ZCU26) (ZWU26) (KCU26) (CCU26) (SBV26) (CANE) (CTV26) 

“Hot Commodities: How El Niño and Climate Change Disrupt Markets”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter and Climatelligence

Scott Mathews - Editor and Co-Producer of Climatelligence

• July 6, 2026

Feel free to download a new inexpensive commodity newsletter on Substack called Climatelligence at this link: Climatelligence Substack page

>>> (versions of this report appeared on Bestweatherinc.com on July 5th, and on Substack July 6th)

Extreme global heat will affect some commodities

Image Source:  Conceived by BestWeather Inc. - Rendered by ChatGPT

The compounding forces of climate change and El Niño are supercharging extreme weather globally, pushing ecological and agricultural systems to their limits. We are beginning to see the potential of extreme heat in the western corn belt next week, more heavy rains for Brazil coffee, dryness to Vietnam coffee and other disruptive forces that will offer trading opportunities in commodities, in the months ahead.

The image above illustrates some potential crop risk areas featured recently in our premium WeatherWealth Newsletter (https://www.bestweatherinc.com/membership-sign-up/)

Beyond agricultural devastation, the immediate human toll is escalating dangerously. This pairing of intense humidity and unprecedented thermal stress threatens to plunge millions of vulnerable individuals into regions with extreme wet-bulb temperatures. Without adequate cooling infrastructure, tens of millions of people are facing a heightened risk of lethal heat stroke. 

This video explains it all (click here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NId_PWb2l)

So… 

• Which commodity markets are we most bullish on from this extraordinary heat? 

• Are we really bullish corn and soybeans on sustained Midwest heat and dryness? 

• What about other markets like coffee? 

Markets presently affected by El Niño and extreme heat:

We are in a weather market in corn and soybeans with dryness and heat worries over the western corn belt next week. After all, we had a big sell-off in recent months on lower crude prices and good early season Midwest crop weather. Nevertheless, the main extreme heat dome may move west of the main corn belt areas deeper into July. So for now, the grain market is a bit confusing. However, it has been the Eurex, European corn futures contract that I recently have been most bullish on.

Image Source: Conceived by BestWeather Inc. - Rendered by ChatGPT

The warming planet combined with a large Antarctica polar vortex remaining pretty stationary over the South Pole (+AAO) index poses additional risks to Brazil coffee from too much rain.  In combination with El Niño, this suggests to me that coffee prices could rally even more. This follows my bearish attitude last October-May from the $3.50 area due to my prediction of a huge South American crop. That bearish attitude was scaled back three weeks ago.

There are some other commodity markets I am bullish on, but that is reserved for premium WeatherWealth clients.

Image Source: Conceived by BestWeather Inc. - Rendered by ChatGPT

Thanks for reading my report, watching the video, and thinking about what it all means “for you and yours”!

Remember, when trading commodities, always apply risk management, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, and consider using spreads to isolate the seasonal component of a particular market move.

We greatly appreciate your interest in Commodity Weather Intelligence!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short-term and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and energy markets, he holds a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.