Farmland: Iowa value study tracks historic price reversals

The Klarenbach Research Iowa Farmland Value Study 2025 examines historical Iowa farmland values through an inflation-adjusted lens, combining technical analysis tools using a logarithmic scale, Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages, Fibonacci Retracement, support and resistance analysis and Elliott Wave Theory.

The analysis is based on the USDA NASS farm real estate values and ISU Land Value Survey (1941-2025), which converted nominal farmland values to 2015 dollars using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) historical CPI-U data. 

Key findings include:

• A steady, long-term upward trend in inflation-adjusted land values with cyclical corrections.
• The analysis identifies distinct historical cycles, including a significant boom in the 1970s, followed by a severe seven-year correction (approximately 1979-1986).
• Technical indicators (RSI and moving averages) highlight periods of potential market overextension and subsequent support from historical resistance levels.
• Historical declines (e.g., 1922–1933, 1979–1986) and technical indicators, combined with a recent bearish divergence between price and RSI, suggest a potential near-term correction. 
• The price trading below the 2-year Exponential Moving Average suggests a possible trend reversal leading to further declines.

The findings suggest that technical signals offer nuanced insights into cyclical patterns and preceding catalysts, including interest rate hikes, shifts in commodity prices, and policy changes

Use this link to read and download the study.

https://www.grainreport.klarenbach.ca/p/farmland-technical-analysis-flags-iowa-market-top

I cover this technical setup and specific price targets in depth in the Klarenbach Grain Report. 

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Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, publishes the Klarenbach Grain Report,  Klarenbach Special Crops Report and The Spread Trader newsletters.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

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