Crop Production

Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released January 12, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 5 Percent from December Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is 
2.70 million tons, down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 22 
percent from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange 
forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (810,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the 
previous forecast and down 56 percent from last season's final utilization. 
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 7.00 
million boxes (315,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 
down 62 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia 
orange forecast, at 11.0 million boxes (495,000 tons), is down 15 percent 
from the previous forecast and down 52 percent from last season's final 
utilization. 

The California all orange forecast is 46.1 million boxes (1.84 million tons), 
is down 2 percent from previous forecast but up 14 percent from last season's 
final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 38.0 million boxes 
(1.52 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 19 percent 
from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast 
is 8.10 million boxes (324,000 tons), down 11 percent from the previous 
forecast and down 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The Texas 
all orange forecast, at 1.15 million boxes (49,000 tons) unchanged from the 
previous forecast but up significantly from last season's final utilization. 

This report was approved on January 12, 2023.

Deputy Secretary of
Agriculture
Jewel Bronaugh

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Contents

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted 
January 1, 2023..........................................................................................  4

Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2021 and 2022......................  5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023..  6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023....  8

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12

December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13

December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13

Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14

Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15

Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts....................................................... 15

Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and
Forecasted January 1, 2023
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :   Utilized production boxes 1/    :Utilized production ton equivalent 
       Crop and State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :    2021-2022    :    2022-2023    :    2021-2022    :    2022-2023    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :     ------ 1,000 boxes -----             ------ 1,000 tons -----      
Oranges                     :                                                                       
California, all ............:     40,400            46,100             1,616             1,844      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:     31,800            38,000             1,272             1,520      
 Valencia ..................:      8,600             8,100               344               324      
                            :                                                                       
Florida, all ...............:     41,050            18,000             1,847               810      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:     18,250             7,000               821               315      
 Valencia ..................:     22,800            11,000             1,026               495      
                            :                                                                       
Texas, all .................:        200             1,150                 8                49      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:        170               900                 7                38      
 Valencia ..................:         30               250                 1                11      
                            :                                                                       
United States, all .........:     81,650            65,250             3,471             2,703      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:     50,220            45,900             2,100             1,873      
 Valencia ..................:     31,430            19,350             1,371               830      
                            :                                                                       
Grapefruit                  :                                                                       
California .................:      4,100             4,300               164               172      
Florida ....................:      3,330             1,500               142                64      
Texas ......................:      1,700             2,200                68                88      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:      9,130             8,000               374               324      
                            :                                                                       
Tangerines and mandarins 3/ :                                                                       
California .................:     17,400            22,000               696               880      
Florida ....................:        750               500                36                24      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:     18,150            22,500               732               904      
                            :                                                                       
Lemons                      :                                                                       
Arizona ....................:        950             1,500                38                60      
California .................:     24,900            22,000               996               880      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:     25,850            23,500             1,034               940      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, 
   Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.          
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties 
   in Florida and Texas.                                                                            
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.                                                                   

Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2021 and 2022
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                 May 1                 :              December 1               
     State     :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :       2021        :       2022        :       2021        :       2022        
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                                  1,000 tons                                   
               :                                                                               
Alabama .......:         300                 240               1,550               1,300       
Arizona .......:          20                  10                 180                 250       
Arkansas ......:         240                 260               1,700               1,440       
California ....:         220                 280               1,200               1,125       
Colorado ......:         230                 580               2,000               1,350       
Connecticut ...:           6                   5                  38                  41       
Delaware ......:           2                   2                  10                  11       
Florida .......:          60                  75                 460                 450       
Georgia .......:         290                 190               1,260                 950       
Idaho .........:         410                 530               2,350               2,500       
               :                                                                               
Illinois ......:         270                 260                 950                 980       
Indiana .......:         150                 240                 900                 770       
Iowa ..........:         430                 720               3,120               2,480       
Kansas ........:         910                 670               5,000               4,100       
Kentucky ......:         950                 980               3,750               3,100       
Louisiana .....:         160                 180                 640                 620       
Maine .........:          21                  30                 105                 142       
Maryland ......:          57                  66                 275                 300       
Massachusetts .:           9                   8                  34                  39       
Michigan ......:         190                 270               1,100                 980       
               :                                                                               
Minnesota .....:         400                 330               1,460               2,190       
Mississippi ...:         170                 180               1,000                 800       
Missouri ......:       1,000               1,100               5,700               4,650       
Montana .......:         970                 450               2,900               3,250       
Nebraska ......:       1,000               1,250               4,650               3,000       
Nevada ........:          90                  52                 490                 560       
New Hampshire .:           5                   5                  42                  41       
New Jersey ....:          10                  14                  85                  77       
New Mexico ....:          40                  30                 240                 190       
New York ......:         290                 550               1,700               1,400       
               :                                                                               
North Carolina :         190                 150                 950               1,000       
North Dakota ..:         950                 520               2,100               3,300       
Ohio ..........:         210                 360               1,400               1,350       
Oklahoma ......:       1,150                 600               4,260               3,000       
Oregon ........:         290                 220                 920               1,410       
Pennsylvania ..:         275                 340               1,440               1,630       
Rhode Island ..:           1                   1                   5                   5       
South Carolina :         125                  80                 450                 380       
South Dakota ..:       2,200               1,090               3,300               4,350       
Tennessee .....:         570                 530               3,000               2,680       
               :                                                                               
Texas .........:       1,200               1,600               8,200               5,150       
Utah ..........:         170                 290               1,000               1,250       
Vermont .......:          35                  34                 157                 175       
Virginia ......:         480                 280               1,800               1,700       
Washington ....:         220                 180               1,100               1,200       
West Virginia .:         145                 105                 790                 780       
Wisconsin .....:         570                 630               2,105               2,165       
Wyoming .......:         325                 200               1,150               1,300       
               :                                                                               
United States .:      18,006              16,767              79,016              71,911       
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2022 and 2023
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2022     :    2023     :    2022     :    2023     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      1,000 acres                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     2,945                       2,433                 
Corn for grain 1/ ......................:    88,579                      79,207                 
Corn for silage ........................:      (NA)                       6,860                 
Hay, all ...............................:      (NA)                      49,546                 
  Alfalfa ..............................:      (NA)                      14,913                 
  All other ............................:      (NA)                      34,633                 
Oats ...................................:     2,581                         890                 
Proso millet ...........................:       637                         507                 
Rice ...................................:     2,222                       2,172                 
Rye ....................................:     2,175                         341                 
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................:     6,325                       4,570                 
Sorghum for silage .....................:      (NA)                         525                 
Wheat, all .............................:    45,738                      35,480                 
  Winter ...............................:    33,271       36,950         23,459                 
  Durum ................................:     1,632                       1,581                 
  Other spring .........................:    10,835                      10,440                 
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:   2,213.0                     2,169.0                 
Cottonseed .............................:       (X)                         (X)                 
Flaxseed ...............................:       263                         244                 
Mustard seed ...........................:     221.0                       182.0                 
Peanuts ................................:   1,450.3                     1,385.4                 
Rapeseed ...............................:      10.9                        10.4                 
Safflower ..............................:     150.2                       135.3                 
Soybeans for beans .....................:    87,450                      86,336                 
Sunflower ..............................:   1,693.0                     1,607.0                 
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all ............................:  13,763.0                     7,440.7                 
  Upland ...............................:  13,580.0                     7,262.5                 
  American Pima ........................:     183.0                       178.2                 
Sugarbeets .............................:   1,159.5                     1,137.1                 
Sugarcane ..............................:      (NA)                       928.6                 
Tobacco ................................:      (NA)                       201.8                 
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas ..............................:     353.1                       341.9                 
Dry edible beans .......................:   1,250.0                     1,223.0                 
Dry edible peas ........................:     919.0                       862.0                 
Lentils ................................:     660.0                       602.0                 
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:      (NA)                        59.8                 
Maple syrup ............................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
Mushrooms ..............................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
Peppermint oil .........................:      (NA)                        34.0                 
Potatoes ...............................:     901.0                       895.6                 
Spearmint oil ..........................:      (NA)                        13.7                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                                     --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2022 and 2023 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :      Yield per acre       :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2022     :    2023     :    2022     :    2023     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                             ------ 1,000 ------       
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley ..........................bushels:     71.7                       174,333                
Corn for grain ..................bushels:    173.3                    13,729,719                
Corn for silage ....................tons:     18.7                       128,567                
Hay, all ...........................tons:     2.28                       112,801                
  Alfalfa ..........................tons:     3.22                        47,958                
  All other ........................tons:     1.87                        64,843                
Oats ............................bushels:     64.8                        57,655                
Proso millet ....................bushels:     18.5                         9,403                
Rice 2/ .............................cwt:    7,383                       160,368                
Rye .............................bushels:     36.1                        12,301                
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels:     41.1                       187,785                
Sorghum for silage .................tons:     10.8                         5,662                
Wheat, all ......................bushels:     46.5                     1,649,878                
  Winter ........................bushels:     47.0                     1,103,707                
  Durum .........................bushels:     40.5                        63,981                
  Other spring ..................bushels:     46.2                       482,190                
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola ...........................pounds:    1,762                     3,821,810                
Cottonseed .........................tons:      (X)                       4,455.0                
Flaxseed ........................bushels:     17.6                         4,304                
Mustard seed .....................pounds:      557                       101,290                
Peanuts ..........................pounds:    4,019                     5,568,150                
Rapeseed .........................pounds:    1,863                        19,380                
Safflower ........................pounds:    1,213                       164,054                
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels:     49.5                     4,276,123                
Sunflower ........................pounds:    1,750                     2,812,540                
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales:      947                      14,680.0                
  Upland 2/ .......................bales:      939                      14,206.0                
  American Pima 2/ ................bales:    1,277                         474.0                
Sugarbeets .........................tons:     28.6                        32,574                
Sugarcane ..........................tons:     37.3                        34,675                
Tobacco ..........................pounds:    2,217                       447,367                
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt:    1,070                         3,658                
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt:    2,113                        25,847                
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt:    1,751                        15,092                
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt:      912                         5,489                
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops .............................pounds:    1,694                     101,286.3                
Maple syrup .....................gallons:     (NA)                         5,028                
Mushrooms ........................pounds:     (NA)                       702,391                
Peppermint oil ...................pounds:       99                         3,349                
Potatoes ............................cwt:      438                       392,243                
Spearmint oil ....................pounds:      120                         1,648                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Yield in pounds.                                                                           

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2022 and 2023
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
              Crop              :-------------------------------------------------------
                                :    2022     :    2023     :    2022     :    2023     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :                       hectares                        
                                :                                                       
Grains and hay                  :                                                       
Barley .........................:  1,191,810                     984,610                
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 35,847,040                  32,054,280                
Corn for silage ................:       (NA)                   2,776,170                
Hay, all 2/ ....................:       (NA)                  20,050,770                
  Alfalfa ......................:       (NA)                   6,035,140                
  All other ....................:       (NA)                  14,015,630                
Oats ...........................:  1,044,500                     360,170                
Proso millet ...................:    257,790                     205,180                
Rice ...........................:    899,220                     878,990                
Rye ............................:    880,200                     138,000                
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........:  2,559,660                   1,849,430                
Sorghum for silage .............:       (NA)                     212,460                
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,509,710                  14,358,400                
  Winter .......................: 13,464,440    14,953,300     9,493,620                
  Durum ........................:    660,450                     639,810                
  Other spring .................:  4,384,820                   4,224,960                
                                :                                                       
Oilseeds                        :                                                       
Canola .........................:    895,580                     877,770                
Cottonseed .....................:        (X)                         (X)                
Flaxseed .......................:    106,430                      98,740                
Mustard seed ...................:     89,440                      73,650                
Peanuts ........................:    586,920                     560,660                
Rapeseed .......................:      4,410                       4,210                
Safflower ......................:     60,780                      54,750                
Soybeans for beans .............: 35,390,140                  34,939,320                
Sunflower ......................:    685,140                     650,340                
                                :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .................:  5,569,750                   3,011,180                
  Upland .......................:  5,495,690                   2,939,060                
  American Pima ................:     74,060                      72,120                
Sugarbeets .....................:    469,240                     460,170                
Sugarcane ......................:       (NA)                     375,800                
Tobacco ........................:       (NA)                      81,650                
                                :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :                                                       
Chickpeas ......................:    142,900                     138,360                
Dry edible beans ...............:    505,860                     494,940                
Dry edible peas ................:    371,910                     348,840                
Lentils ........................:    267,100                     243,620                
                                :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous      :                                                       
Hops ...........................:       (NA)                      24,190                
Maple syrup ....................:       (NA)                        (NA)                
Mushrooms ......................:       (NA)                        (NA)                
Peppermint oil .................:       (NA)                      13,760                
Potatoes .......................:    364,630                     362,440                
Spearmint oil ..................:       (NA)                       5,540                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                             --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2022 and 2023 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :     Yield per hectare     :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2022     :    2023     :    2022     :    2023     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      metric tons                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     3.85                      3,795,650               
Corn for grain .........................:    10.88                    348,750,930               
Corn for silage ........................:    42.01                    116,634,020               
Hay, all 2/ ............................:     5.10                    102,331,350               
  Alfalfa ..............................:     7.21                     43,506,770               
  All other ............................:     4.20                     58,824,580               
Oats ...................................:     2.32                        836,860               
Proso millet ...........................:     1.04                        213,260               
Rice ...................................:     8.28                      7,274,170               
Rye ....................................:     2.26                        312,460               
Sorghum for grain ......................:     2.58                      4,769,960               
Sorghum for silage .....................:    24.18                      5,136,480               
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................:     3.13                     44,902,320               
  Winter ...............................:     3.16                     30,037,980               
  Durum ................................:     2.72                      1,741,280               
  Other spring .........................:     3.11                     13,123,060               
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:     1.97                      1,733,540               
Cottonseed .............................:      (X)                      4,041,510               
Flaxseed ...............................:     1.11                        109,330               
Mustard seed ...........................:     0.62                         45,940               
Peanuts ................................:     4.50                      2,525,670               
Rapeseed ...............................:     2.09                          8,790               
Safflower ..............................:     1.36                         74,410               
Soybeans for beans .....................:     3.33                    116,377,000               
Sunflower ..............................:     1.96                      1,275,750               
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .........................:     1.06                      3,196,190               
  Upland ...............................:     1.05                      3,092,990               
  American Pima ........................:     1.43                        103,200               
Sugarbeets .............................:    64.22                     29,550,640               
Sugarcane ..............................:    83.71                     31,456,630               
Tobacco ................................:     2.49                        202,920               
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas ..............................:     1.20                        165,920               
Dry edible beans .......................:     2.37                      1,172,400               
Dry edible peas ........................:     1.96                        684,560               
Lentils ................................:     1.02                        248,980               
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:     1.90                         45,940               
Maple syrup ............................:     (NA)                         25,140               
Mushrooms ..............................:     (NA)                        318,600               
Peppermint oil .........................:     0.11                          1,520               
Potatoes ...............................:    49.09                     17,791,840               
Spearmint oil ..........................:     0.13                            750               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Total may not add due to rounding.                                                         

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2023       :      2024       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons:          374             324      
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons:        1,034             940      
Oranges .........................1,000 tons:        3,471           2,703      
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons:          732             904      
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds:     10,110.0                      
Apricots ..............................tons:       36,200                      
Avocados ..............................tons:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:                                   
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons:      275,000                      
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds:        229.2                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:                                   
Cranberries .........................barrel:    7,440,000                      
                                           :                                   
Dates .................................tons:                                   
Grapes ................................tons:    5,985,000                      
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:                                   
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:                                   
Olives (California) ...................tons:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:                                   
Peaches ...............................tons:      583,500                      
Pears .................................tons:      690,000                      
Plums (California) ....................tons:                                   
Prunes (California) ...................tons:                                   
Raspberries, all  .............1,000 pounds:                                   
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:                                   
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds:    2,600,000                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:       68,000                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds:      280,000                      
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons:      720,000                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.                               

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2023       :      2024       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            metric tons            
                                           :                                   
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ................................:      339,290           293,930    
Lemons ....................................:      938,030           852,750    
Oranges ...................................:    3,148,840         2,452,120    
Tangerines and mandarins ..................:      664,060           820,100    
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ........................:    4,585,820                      
Apricots ..................................:       32,840                      
Avocados ..................................:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:                                   
Cherries, Sweet ...........................:      249,480                      
Cherries, Tart ............................:      103,960                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:                                   
Cranberries ...............................:      337,470                      
                                           :                                   
Dates .....................................:                                   
Grapes ....................................:    5,429,500                      
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:                                   
Nectarines (California) ...................:                                   
Olives (California) .......................:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:                                   
Peaches ...................................:      529,340                      
Pears .....................................:      625,960                      
Plums (California) ........................:                                   
Prunes (California) .......................:                                   
Raspberries, all ..........................:                                   
Strawberries ..............................:                                   
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .............:    1,179,340                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:       61,690                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..........................:      127,010                      
Pistachios (California) ...................:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............:      653,170                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.                               

December Weather Summary

Significant December precipitation in the West, as well as the South, East, 
and lower Midwest, further chipped away at expansive drought. By January 3, 
2023, just under one-half (46.3 percent) of the continental United States was 
experiencing drought, down 16.7 percentage points from the autumn 2022 peak 
of nearly 63 percent, according to the Drought Monitor. Only a few areas, 
including portions of the southern Atlantic States and the central Plains, 
failed to experience some degree of December drought relief.

Some of the most impressive December storminess occurred in the Far West, 
including northern and central California. According to the California 
Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra 
Nevada snowpack grew from about 3 to 17 inches in December, with the bulk of 
the precipitation falling during the first half of the month and in the 
year's final days. The 17-inch equivalency was about 175 percent of the 
early-January average and roughly two-thirds of the typical end-of-season 
value.

In the Northwest, some winter wheat-production areas-especially in eastern 
Washington-retained a protective snow cover for the entire month. Snow also 
blanketed the northern Plains, insulating wheat from a harsh cold snap that 
sent temperatures into the range of -20 to -40�F, with the Arctic outbreak 
peaking for several days starting around December 20. The central and 
southern Plains were not as fortunate, with only patchy snow providing 
limited protection from sub-zero temperatures. Due to drought and temperature 
extremes, one-quarter to one-half of the winter wheat was rated in very poor 
to poor condition at the end of December in Oklahoma (27 percent), Nebraska 
(36 percent), and Kansas (49 percent).

The Arctic outbreak, which lasted through the holiday weekend 
(December 24-26), also potentially harmed a variety of crops in the 
Deep South. In the wake of multiple freezes, Southern producers monitored 
cover crops and winter grains and forages, some of which were burned back by 
low temperatures. Southern Florida escaped the freeze, but crops such as 
citrus, sugarcane, and strawberries in winter agricultural regions from 
Deep South Texas to Louisiana and central Florida were subjected to 
temperatures below 32�F. Another cold-related impact was an epic 
Great Lake-effect snow and wind event, especially in parts of western 
New York.

On the strength of the cold wave, monthly temperatures averaged 5 to 15�F 
below normal in numerous locations from the interior Northwest to the 
northern Plains. Elsewhere, temperatures were closer to normal due to the 
offsetting effects of early-month warmth and the subsequent Arctic outbreak, 
although monthly readings averaged more than 5�F above normal in parts of 
northern New England.

With wetter December weather in parts of the South, muddy field conditions 
developed. By the end of December, topsoil moisture was rated 60 percent 
surplus in Arkansas and Louisiana. At the same time, topsoil moisture was at 
least one-half very short to short in a variety of states across the Plains 
and Rockies, including New Mexico (76 percent), Nebraska (73 percent), Kansas 
(69 percent), Oklahoma (58 percent), and Wyoming (56 percent).

The combination of long-term drought in the central United States and the 
late-December cold wave led to ongoing lower-than-normal river levels in much 
of the Mississippi River drainage basin. Due to the late-month formation of 
ice (and ice jams) in the middle Missouri River, record-low water levels 
developed in the lower Missouri River. On December 30-31 in Missouri, river 
stages along the Missouri River dipped to -0.98 and -2.88 feet, respectively, 
in Hermann and Jefferson City. Previous records had been -0.90 foot in 
Hermann (on December 21, 1878) and -1.10 feet in Jefferson City (on 
February 3, 1908).

December Agricultural Summary

Much of the Nation was cooler than normal during the month of December. Most 
of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Central and Northern Plains, 
and Rockies recorded cooler than normal temperatures for the month of 
December. Parts of Montana and North Dakota recorded temperatures 12�F or 
more below normal for the month. In contrast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
Northeast, and Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Southeast and 
Southwest, recorded moderately warmer than normal temperatures. Areas in 
northern Maine recorded temperatures 6�F or more above normal for the month. 
December was drier than normal for much of Southern California-Nevada, the 
Southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, and Southeast. In contrast, much of the 
Northern Plains, as well as parts of Arizona, the Great Basin, Nebraska, 
Pacific Northwest, and Rockies received at least twice the normal amount of 
precipitation for the month.

Nationwide, 91 percent of the 2023 winter wheat acreage had emerged by 
November 27, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year 
average. As of November 27, thirty-four percent of the 2023 winter wheat 
acreage was reported in good to excellent condition, 10 percentage points 
below the same time last year. 

By November 27, eighty-four percent of the Nation's cotton acreage had been 
harvested, equal to last year but 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year 
average.

Ninety-seven percent of the Nation's peanut acreage had been harvested as of 
November 27, two percentage points ahead of last year and 1 percentage point 
ahead of the 5-year average. 

Crop Comments

Grapefruit: The United States 2022-2023 grapefruit crop is forecast at 
324,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent 
from last season's final utilization. California's grapefruit forecast at 
4.30 million boxes (172,000 tons), is up 5 percent from the previous forecast 
and up 5 percent from last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast at 
2.20 million boxes is up 10 percent from the previous forecast and 
up 29 percent from the 2021- 2022 season. The Florida forecast, at 
1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons), is down 17 percent from previous forecast 
and down 55 percent from the last season.

Lemons: The 2022-2023 United States lemon crop is forecast at 940,000 tons, 
down 3 percent from previous forecast and down 9 percent from last season's 
final utilization. The California forecast, at 22.0 million boxes 
(880,000 tons), is down 4 percent from the 2021-2022 season and 
down 12 percent from the 2021-2022 season. The Arizona forecast, at 
1.50 million boxes (60,000 tons), is up 30 percent from the previous forecast 
and up 58 percent from last year. 

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is 
forecast at 904,000 tons, up 9 percent from the previous forecast and 
up 23 percent from the last season's final utilization. The California 
tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons) is 
up 10 percent from last forecast and up 26 percent from last year.

Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of 
December 1, 2022 totaled 71.9 million tons, down 9 percent from December 1, 
2021, which is the lowest December 1 stocks since 1954. Disappearance from 
May 1, 2022 - December 1, 2022, totaled 57.7 million tons, down 3 percent 
from the same period in 2021.

Record low December 1 hay stock levels were estimated in California, 
Colorado, and Nebraska.

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 
forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September, the number of 
bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and 
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 
conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop 
the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower on a 
quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an 
objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for 
Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida 
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with 
historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also 
used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the 
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses 
the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 
forecast.

Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A 
new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 
August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end 
of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, 
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local 
utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure 
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of 
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes 
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be 
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's 
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 
5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange 
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more 
than 5.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that 
the difference will not exceed 10.2 percent.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during 
the past 20 years have averaged 297,000 tons, ranging from 2,000 tons to 
843,000 tons. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final 
estimate 6 times and above 14 times. The difference does not imply that the 
January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final 
production.

Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :            :           :      Difference between forecast       
                              :            :           :           and final estimate           
                              :            :           :----------------------------------------
                              :            :90 percent :       Production       :     Years     
             Crop             : Root mean  :confidence :----------------------------------------
                              :square error: interval  :       :        :       : Below : Above 
                              :            :           :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :    ---- percent ---       ----- millions -----        number    
                              :                                                                 
Oranges 1/ ...............tons:    5.9         10.2       297      2       843      6      14   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Quantity is in thousands of units.                                                           

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127

Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section......................................... (202) 720-2127
     Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................. (202) 720-7621
     Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans.......................................... (202) 690-3234
     David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports...................... (202) 720-8800
     Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay.............................. (202) 690-8533
     James Johanson - Rye, Wheat.................................................. (202) 720-8068
     Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-9526
     Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.............................. (202) 720-5944
     Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369
     Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688

Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127
Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288
Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup,
Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit,
Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, 
Oranges, Pistachios............................................................... (202) 720-5412
Chris Singh - Apples, Blueberries, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-4285
Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils,
Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157
Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
ways:

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site: www.nass.usda.gov.

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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural 
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nass@usda.gov. 
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