Option Volatility And Earnings Report For November 7 - 11

Earnings season is slowing winding down, but will still have some significant companies reporting this week including The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Palantir (PLTR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Nio (NIO), Roblox (RBLX), The Trade Desk (TTD) and Upstart (UPST).

Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options.

After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels. 

Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate.

Monday

PLTR – 14.8%

MOS – 8.2%

BNTX – 9.4%

LYFT – 17.6%

Tuesday

NCLH – 9.6%

AMC – 14.9%

DIS – 7.5%

OXY – 6.0%

UPST – 22.3%

AFRM – 22.2%

Wednesday

TTD – 17.8%

RBLX – 15.6%

WYNN – 8.6%

Thursday

NIO – 13.4%

AZN – 3.8%

Friday

Nothing of note

Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range.

Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance. 

Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range. 

When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strategies and keep position size small. If the stock makes a larger than expected move and the trade suffers a full loss, it should not have more than a 1-3% effect on your portfolio.

Stocks With High Implied Volatility

We can use Barchart’s Stock Screener to find other stocks with high implied volatility.

Let’s run the stock screener with the following filters:

• Total options volume: Greater than 5,000
• Market Cap: Greater than 40 billion
• IV Percentile: Greater than 70%

This screener produces the following results, ranked by implied volatility percentile:

You can refer to this article for details of how to find option trades for this earnings season. 

Last Week’s Earnings Moves

Last week’s actual versus expected moves are shown below:

ON -9.0% vs 9.2% expected

SOFI +5.3% vs 16.7% expected

UBER 12.0% vs 11.3% expected

PFE +3.1% vs 4.5% expected

BP -0.2% vs 4.5% expected

LLY -2.6% vs 4.7% expected

AMD -1.7% vs 8.3% expected

ABNB -13.4% vs 9.2% expected

DVN -12.8% vs 6.3% expected

CVS +2.3% vs 4.6% expected

HUM +0.9% vs 4.1% expected

ROKU -4.6% vs 17.4% expected

MPC +4.9% vs 4.9% expected

HOOD +8.2% vs 10.9% expected

ETSY +14.3% vs 13.7% expected

ALB +3.0% vs 11.6% expected

COP +5.8% vs 4.6% expected

DDOG +0.7% vs 12.1% expected

PTON +8.2% vs 18.4% expected

PYPL -1.8% vs 11.6% expected

COIN +5.4% vs 14.8% expected

SQ +11.5% vs 11.9% expected

TWLO -34.6% vs 14.5% expected

SBUX +8.55 vs 6.1% expected

FUBO 0.0% vs 15.6% expected

DKNG -27.8% vs 12.5% expected

Overall, there were 17 out of 26 that stayed within the expected range.

Changes In Open Interest

AT&T (T), Sofi Technologies (SOFI), Google (GOOG), ChargePoint (CHPT), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Peleton (PTON), PayPal (PYPL), Apple (AAPL), General Motors (GM) and Meta Technologies (META) saw some of the largest changes in open interest last week.

Other stocks with large changes in open interest are shown below:

Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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