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Ultra T-Bond Sep '19 (UDU19)

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Ultra T-Bond Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Close Lower on Reduced 50-bp Rate-Cut Speculation

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU19) on Friday closed down -3.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield rose +1.9 bp to 2.043%. T-note prices fell back Friday as speculation diminished that the FOMC will cut rates by 50 bp at its upcoming meeting on July 30-31. The New York Fed late Thursday walked back Thursday's comment from New York Fed President Williams that "it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress" by saying that the comment was academic talk based on 20 years of research and was not about potential Fed policy actions. T-notes were also pressured after St. Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) said Friday that "a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed would be appropriate as the current situation doesn't warrant a larger rate cut." Losses in T-notes were limited Friday on carry-over strength from a rally in German bunds. The 10-year German bund yield on Friday fell to a 1-week low of -0.330% on ideas that slack price pressures will prompt the ECB to revive QE after Friday's German June PPI eased to a 2-1/2 year low of +1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.5% y/y. A jump in inflation expectations was negative for T-notes Friday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate rose to a 1-3/4 month high of 1.813% and finished the day +2.6 bp at 1.790%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate remains well above the 1-month low of 1.638% (July 3) and the mid-June 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) market expectations of a 100% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, (2) the FOMC's cut in its 2019 core PCE estimate to 1.8% from March's 2.0% and cut in its 2020 median Fed funds rate forecast by -50 bp to 2.1% from 2.6% projected in March, (3) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (4) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's balance sheet draw-down program that will last through September, (2) the record high in stock prices, and (3) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Ultra Treasury Bond
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
32nds of a point ($31.25 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,795/3,450
First Notice Date
08/30/19 (39 days)
Expiration Date
09/19/19 (59 days)

Seasonal Chart

Ultra T-Bond Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jul 16, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
875,878 (+2,560)
662,230 (+2,636)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
95,711 (+720)
389,953 (-600)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
8,151 (+3,583)
208,488 (+22,675)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
725,789 (+14,588)
25,424 (-2,030)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
29,089 (+836)
642,751 (-4,769)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
39,258 (+1,214)
6,218 (+3,101)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
172-31 +2.17%
on 07/12/19
180-06 -1.93%
on 07/05/19
+1-04 (+0.64%)
since 06/21/19
3-Month
163-08 +8.25%
on 04/23/19
180-06 -1.93%
on 07/05/19
+13-11 (+8.17%)
since 04/22/19

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 177-01
1st Resistance Point 176-17
Last Price 176-21
1st Support Level 175-20
2nd Support Level 175-07

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52-Week High 180-06
Last Price 176-21
Fibonacci 61.8% 171-29
Fibonacci 50% 169-11
Fibonacci 38.2% 166-25
52-Week Low 158-16

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