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Sugar #11 Jul '18 (SBN18)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Market News and Commentary

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Thursday closed down -0.32 (-2.43%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed down -5.30 (-1.50%). Sugar prices moved lower Thursday on weak crude oil prices and a decline in the Brazilian real. Weak crude oil prices are negative for ethanol prices and give incentive to Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. The Brazilian real tumbled to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar Thursday, which encourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Another bearish factor is Brazil shipping data that shows sugar awaiting loading in Brazil's ports rose to 586,400 MT as of Jan 16, up from last week's level of 382,113 MT. Mar NY sugar climbed to a 2-1/4 month high Wednesday on signs that sugar exports from India, the world’s second-biggest sugar producer, may ease after India's Prime Minister's Office said it is considering raising the minimum selling price of sugar to 31 rupees/kg from 29 rupees/kg, which may curb India's sugar exports. Also, researcher Marex Spectron cut its India 2018/19 sugar export estimate to 2.8 MMT from a Nov estimate of 3.0 MMT. Sugar prices still have support on Tuesday's data from Unica that showed 2018/19 Brazil Center-South sugar production through December was down -26.5% y/y at 26.339 MMT, with the percent of sugar cane used for ethanol at 65.53% (up from 53.07% last year) and the percent of cane used for sugar at 35.47% (down from 46.93% last year). Also, Brazil's hydrous ethanol prices fell for a second week to 1.6354 real per liter in the week ended Jan 11, down -12% y/y and the lowest for this time a year in 3 years, which may prompt Brazil's sugar producers to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production with the lower ethanol prices.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
07/02/18
Expiration Date
06/29/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Jul '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jul Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Dec 18, 2018

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
470,585 (+22,539)
487,203 (-7,903)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
163,519 (+1,778)
162,957 (+25,971)
Producers - Long / Short
263,408 (+24,686)
429,093 (-8,912)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
187,218 (-2,805)
38,151 (+351)
Managed Money - Long / Short
114,706 (-1,874)
143,888 (+28,162)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
48,813 (+3,652)
19,069 (-2,191)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
11.60 +2.24%
on 06/08/18
12.97 -8.56%
on 06/01/18
-0.60 (-4.82%)
since 05/29/18
3-Month
10.93 +8.51%
on 04/25/18
12.97 -8.56%
on 06/01/18
-0.60 (-4.82%)
since 03/29/18
52-Week
10.93 +8.51%
on 04/25/18
15.96 -25.69%
on 08/01/17
-2.45 (-17.12%)
since 06/29/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 24% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 11.95
1st Resistance Point 11.91
Last Price 11.86s
1st Support Level 11.79
2nd Support Level 11.71

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52-Week High 15.96
Fibonacci 61.8% 14.04
Fibonacci 50% 13.44
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.85
Last Price 11.86s
52-Week Low 10.93

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