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Gasoline RBOB Aug '16 (RBQ16)

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Gasoline RBOB Futures Market News and Commentary

Energy Complex Settles Mixed as Global Demand Picture Remains Murky

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX19) on Tuesday closed down by -0.78 (-1.46%), Dec Brent crude oil (CBZ19) closed down -0.61 (-1.03%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX19) closed up +0.0012 (+0.07%). The energy complex settled mixed Tuesday as the bearish factor of global demand concern was offset by the bullish factors of a weaker dollar and a rally in stocks. Global demand concerns weighed on crude prices after the IMF on Tuesday cut its global 2019 GDP forecast to a 10-year low of 3.0% from a 3.2% estimate in July, the fifth time this year that the IMF has cut its GDP forecast. Crude oil prices were also undercut Tuesday by a Bloomberg report that raised doubts about a U.S./China trade deal after the report said China will struggle to buy $50 billion of U.S. farm goods annually unless it removes retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. However, China is not likely to remove its penalty tariffs without reciprocal action by the U.S., which President Trump has so far refused to consider. Supportive factors for the energy complex Tuesday included a weaker dollar and a rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high, which bolsters economic and energy demand prospects. U.S. stock indexes rallied on Brexit optimism and better-than-expected Q3 earnings results from JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson. Brexit optimism spurred a rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 to a 1-3/4 year high Tuesday and was supportive for economic growth and energy demand prospects. Two EU officials on Tuesday said that UK and European negotiators are closing in on a draft Brexit deal. Crude oil prices found support Tuesday on strength in credit demand from China, the world's second-biggest crude consumer, which is positive for economic growth and energy demand prospects. China's Sep new yuan loans rose +1.690 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.260 trillion yuan and the biggest increase in 6 months. Also, China's Sep aggregate financing, the broadest form of credit growth, rose +2.270 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.900 trillion yuan. Crude oil prices were undercut by the consensus for Thursday's weekly EIA crude inventories to climb by +3.0 million bbl. Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Oct 4 were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +2.3% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -9.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Oct 4 rose +1.6% w/w to a new record high of 12.6 million bpd.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Gasoline Blendstock New York Harbor [RBOB]
Contract Size
42,000 gallons
Tick Size
$0.0001 (0.01 cent) per gallon ($4.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$42,000
Margin/Maintenance
$5,225/4,750
First Notice Date
08/02/16
Expiration Date
07/29/16 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Gasoline RBOB Aug '16
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Aug Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 8, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
151,053 (+10,692)
204,389 (+7,211)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
118,035 (-1,169)
65,812 (-982)
Producers - Long / Short
91,660 (+7,317)
174,334 (+5,842)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
47,553 (+259)
18,215 (-1,747)
Managed Money - Long / Short
73,538 (-698)
17,683 (+1,192)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
44,497 (-471)
48,129 (-2,174)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
1.2760 +3.53%
on 07/29/16
1.5415 -14.30%
on 06/30/16
-0.2173 (-14.13%)
since 06/29/16
3-Month
1.2760 +3.53%
on 07/29/16
1.6591 -20.38%
on 05/24/16
-0.2753 (-17.25%)
since 04/29/16
52-Week
1.1366 +16.22%
on 02/09/16
1.7216 -23.27%
on 07/30/15
-0.3909 (-22.83%)
since 07/29/15

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 1.3595
1st Resistance Point 1.3403
Last Price 1.3210s
1st Support Level 1.2889
2nd Support Level 1.2567

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52-Week High 1.7216
Fibonacci 61.8% 1.4981
Fibonacci 50% 1.4291
Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3601
Last Price 1.3210s
52-Week Low 1.1366

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