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Natural Gas Mar '19 (NGH19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Close Slightly Higher on the Outlook for Hot Temps Through July 4

July Nymex natural gas (NGN19) on Tuesday closed up by +0.005 (+0.22%). Nat-gas prices erased early losses Tuesday and closed slightly higher after forecaster Maxar Weather said temperatures will be above normal from the Great Lakes to parts of the Northeast through July 4. Nat-gas prices had opened lower Tuesday after the Weather Company forecast normal seasonal temperatures across the contiguous U.S. during July 5-9. Funds hold a large net-short position in nat-gas that could provide fuel for short-covering. Last Friday's CFTC data showed that funds boosted their net-short positions by 32,020 contracts in the week ended June 18 to a 3-year high of 88,038 contracts. This Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventory report is expected to climb 102 bcf, above the 5-year average of 70 bcf and the 13th consecutive week that U.S. nat gas inventories will have risen by more than their 5-year average. Jul nat-gas last Thursday plunged to a new 3-year nearest-futures low on the larger-than-expected build in weekly EIA nat-gas inventories of +115 bcf, higher than expectations of 105 bcf and above the 5-year average of 84 bcf. That marked the 12th consecutive week that U.S. nat gas inventories rose by more than their 5-year average. Strong U.S. nat-gas output remains bearish for nat-gas prices as Tuesday's data showed that U.S. lower 48-state nat-gas production rose +8.5% y/y at 86.231 bcf. Last Thursday's EIA data showed that U.S. nat-gas supplies stood at a 4-3/4 month high of 2.203 bcf as of June 14, up +9.7% y/y but -8.3% below the 5-year average.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,540/1,400
First Notice Date
02/27/19
Expiration Date
02/26/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 18, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
612,674 (-2,344)
513,062 (-8,948)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
242,813 (+2,818)
380,112 (+13,169)
Producers - Long / Short
277,128 (+549)
276,376 (-9,517)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
194,162 (-952)
95,302 (+2,510)
Managed Money - Long / Short
154,814 (-7,444)
303,453 (+22,968)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
87,999 (+10,262)
76,659 (-9,799)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.543 +12.27%
on 02/15/19
2.923 -2.33%
on 01/29/19
-0.217 (-7.06%)
since 01/25/19
3-Month
2.543 +12.27%
on 02/15/19
4.304 -33.67%
on 12/10/18
-1.111 (-28.01%)
since 11/26/18
52-Week
2.543 +12.27%
on 02/15/19
4.608 -38.04%
on 11/14/18
-0.081 (-2.76%)
since 02/26/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.952
1st Resistance Point 2.903
Last Price 2.855s
1st Support Level 2.811
2nd Support Level 2.768

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52-Week High 4.608
Fibonacci 61.8% 3.819
Fibonacci 50% 3.576
Fibonacci 38.2% 3.332
Last Price 2.855s
52-Week Low 2.543

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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