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Natural Gas Feb '18 (NGG18)

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cmdty Insider - Natural Gas Market Commentary


Dec Nymex natural gas (NGZ18) on Friday closed up +0.234 (+5.79%). A decline in the dollar index to a 1-week low Friday gave nat-gas prices a boost as did a NOAA forecast for colder-than-normal temperatures across the U.S. northeast from Nov 21-25, which should boost nat-gas demand. The increased demand could further cut into U.S. nat-gas supplies that are already at a 15-year seasonal low and -16% below the 5-year average. Finally, the current below-normal temperatures have interrupted U.S. nat-gas production due to the freezing of gas well heads as U.S. nat-gas production in the lower 48 states in Friday's report dropped to a 1-month low of 83.38 bcf. Dec nat-gas prices surged +32.5% earlier this week to Wednesday's 4-3/4 year nearest-futures high on massive short-covering and on concern that below-normal temperatures in the U.S. would eat into already slim nat-gas supplies.Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) tight U.S. working gas inventories at -16.8% below the 5-year average, (2) strong global natural gas demand due to firm global economic growth and the need to substitute for coal to reduce global CO2 emissions, and (3) significant U.S. LNG export potential. Bearish factors include (1) near-record U.S. natural gas production and forecasts for production growth of +9% in 2018 and +3% in 2019, and (2) China’s 10% tariff on U.S. LNG starting Sep 24 (rising to 25% on Jan 1), which substantially reduces the potential for U.S. LNG exports to China.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,080/2,800
First Notice Date
01/30/18
Expiration Date
01/29/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Feb '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Feb Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
541,343 (-33,130)
601,484 (-18,012)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
369,959 (+18,136)
347,613 (+1,210)
Producers - Long / Short
186,579 (-30,451)
236,926 (-17,706)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
181,285 (+2,103)
191,079 (+4,476)
Managed Money - Long / Short
331,833 (+17,803)
52,720 (-16,204)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
38,126 (+333)
294,893 (+17,414)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.746 +32.23%
on 01/05/18
3.661 -0.82%
on 01/29/18
+0.678 (+22.96%)
since 12/29/17
3-Month
2.562 +41.73%
on 12/21/17
3.661 -0.82%
on 01/29/18
+0.524 (+16.87%)
since 10/27/17
52-Week
2.562 +41.73%
on 12/21/17
3.707 -2.05%
on 05/12/17
-0.026 (-0.71%)
since 01/27/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 3.896
1st Resistance Point 3.763
Last Price 3.631s
1st Support Level 3.396
2nd Support Level 3.162

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52-Week High 3.707
Last Price 3.631s
Fibonacci 61.8% 3.270
Fibonacci 50% 3.135
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.999
52-Week Low 2.562

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InsideFutures Commentary

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