Coffee May '25 (KCK25)
Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary
July arabica coffee (KCN26) on Thursday closed down -5.15 (-1.77%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) closed down -81 (-2.35%).
Coffee prices tumbled to 1-week lows on Thursday and settled sharply lower amid expectations of a bigger Brazil coffee crop. The Coffee Trading Academy projects Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by +12% y/y to 71.4 million bags.
Last Tuesday, arabica coffee fell to a 1.75-month low amid expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
Soaring coffee exports f... Read more
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