Coffee May '25 (KCK25)
Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary
July arabica coffee (KCN26) on Monday closed down -2.70 (-1.01%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) closed down -59 (-1.75%).
Coffee prices on Monday added to last Friday's sharp losses, with arabica falling to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low and robusta posting a 4-week low. Â
Expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop are weighing on prices. Â On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by 12% y/y to 71.4 million bags. Â On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). Â On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Â Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
Soaring coffee exports fr... Read more
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